tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6947095091641243428.post124437738603536214..comments2024-01-15T08:18:38.114-05:00Comments on Kratisto Investing: Seeking Alpha: Weak Prices Have Lynas Fighting An UndertowStephen Simpsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12872161469696334548noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6947095091641243428.post-80389731950562671352013-12-19T12:03:24.733-05:002013-12-19T12:03:24.733-05:00Stephen,
I've enjoyed reading your blog since...Stephen,<br /><br />I've enjoyed reading your blog since recently discovering it. You have a lot of original ideas and sound analysis.<br /><br />As for Lynas - it's been a nightmare to say the least. When they did the feasibility study for LAMP in the mid 2000s, they could not have drawn up a worse scenario since (delays, political influence, Malaysian protests, low R.E. prices, black market in China, etc.)Given Lynas' eroded stock price, and that it is trading below book value (at least for the ADRs), it seems the market has baked in all fear into the price.<br /><br />Despite all the negatives, I think there is some serious potential for the stock. They are introducing long term contracts with customers which would be a game changer for the industry. It would also make Lynas' revenue projections a lot more predictable and less volatile. I don't think it would take much news to shoot this stock back to $0.60 / share. It was trading around that price in May when teh Malaysian elections occured (and reduced the risk of LAMP being shutdown). If it can fix the initial kinks in LAMP(reasonable for a plant of that size) and prove to the market that it can become operationally efficient - then I'd agree with a $1.00 / share price as you alluded to.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06383959741718496853noreply@blogger.com