News hit last night that Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) saw good results in a Phase 3 study of XGEVA as a means of preventing bone metastasis in men with castration-resistant prostate cancer. If early indications mean anything, the stock could be up more than 5% on this news.
I guess I wonder, though, whether the stock should be up on this news. The drug definitely helped reduce bone metastasis - it showed a bone metastatasis-free advantage of over 4 months versus placebo. That's a good result in a very serious form of prostate cacner.
BUT ... one of the secondary endpoints of this study was overall survival and XGEVA showed no real advantage ("overall survival was similar").
So what is this really worth? Bone metastasis is unquestionably a very bad thing (it can be excruciatingly painful), but what this study suggests to me is that patients getting the drug aren't going to live any longer; presumably some other type of metastasis will get to them and is unencumbered by the drug. Does this mean, then, that XGEVA gives very sick people an opportunity for a somewhat better death? I'm not suggesting that that isn't a valuable and worthwhile thing, but I just wonder if a drug is going to get approved, marketed, and used on the basis that it does not change how long you will live but may make the time left a bit more bearable.
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