When it comes to forecasting bank earnings today, analysts and investors
aren't much better off than Sergeant Schultz in Hogan's Heroes ("I know
nothing, nothing!"). So much now rides on the shape of the U.S.
economy's rebound, the efficacy of the federal government's stimulus
measures, and the ultimate loan losses from this downturn. If there's a
strong second half recovery, most banks are now over-reserving and will
be able to release those reserves in 2021 and beyond. If the economy is
weaker, though, many banks will likely have to add more to their
reserves, depressing reported earnings, and eventual loan losses will be
higher.
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Reserve And Loan Loss Worries Have Likely Hammered Citizens Financial Too Hard
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