Seeking Alpha: Ciena Isn't Done Yet

Optical telecom equipment maker Ciena (CIEN) has pulled back, and it's time to consider buying the dip.

"Wait for a pullback" and "buy on a dip" are some of the most hackneyed pieces of investment advice out there, and there's often an important detail missing. While it often does make a great deal of sense to buy good stocks on a momentary setback, what investors are seldom reminded of is that buying on these occasions often requires a lot of fortitude. After all, there's usually some near-term reason why the shares are trading down and climbing aboard a stock just as it is careering off a cliff is an experience that sticks with you.

Ciena has certainly seen the pace of sales growth and margin improvements slacken, but I believe this will prove to be a pause that refreshes. There still seem to be long-term legs to the equipment/network upgrade cycle, and Ciena has reemerged as a share gainer in the space. Investors can't ignore the risk that 2014 sees sales growth slow after the double-digit growth in fiscal 2013, but the valuation here is appealing.

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Ciena Isn't Done Yet

Investopedia: Ciena On A Roll With Carrier Spending Picking Up

It looks like the good times have arrived for Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN), as this optical telecom equipment company delivered another beat-and-raise quarter with its fiscal third quarter results. Although carrier spending is not uniformly strong, Ciena shares could move higher as telcos loosen up their purse strings and move forward with badly needed capacity upgrades.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/090413/ciena-roll-carrier-spending-picking-cien-csco-vz-cyni.aspx

Investopedia: Nokia Sells Its Handset Business To Microsoft And Remakes Its Future

From virtually the day that Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) began working together on mobile handsets and smartphones investors have speculated whether Microsoft would acquire Nokia's handset business. Not only had Nokia continued to struggle with the transition to smartphones, some argued that Microsoft would want to “control its ecosystem” in the same way that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) do through their software and hardware operations.

That all came home to roost on Tuesday, as the two companies announced a transformative deal that will see Microsoft acquire Nokia's phone business and license significant intellectual property (IP). After the deal, Nokia will be a cash-rich wireless infrastructure company, while Microsoft will be much more geared towards handsets and consumer devices.

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Seeking Alpha: Cyan Looks To Bring The Green

Talking about increasing carrier network traffic may border on the cliché at this point, but it's a real problem for network operators. If Cisco's (CSCO) prior estimates of compound annual traffic growth of 23% between 2012 and 2017 are even close to accurate, carriers badly need new strategies for coping with traffic growth, as boosting capex by 23% a year for five years isn't much of an option.

This is where Cyan (CYNI) comes into the picture. Cyan is unproven (less than $100 million in revenue), but the company has two separate approaches to help carriers meet their network needs - packet-optical transport systems that can help manage traffic at the metro edge and reduce the need for expensive routers, and a purpose-built SDN solution for carriers that offers the promise of more efficient network utilization.

Cyan is going up against numerous well-established equipment vendors and alternative approaches to managing network traffic. What's more, I have some concerns that the company's position in carrier SDN isn't as unique as hoped. Even so, I believe there is an argument to be made that Cyan shares are trading meaningfully below fair value. While this is a company/stock with above-average risks, a fair value in the range of $12.00 seems reasonable and that range could expand well into the high teens.

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Cyan Looks To Bring The Green

Investopedia: If Alcatel Can Keep This Up, The Turnaround Can Work

These are still very early days, but if the second quarter is any sign, Alcatel-Lucent's (NYSE:ALU) latest restructuring efforts may bring this company (and stock) back into relevancy. There is still plenty than can go wrong, but the carrier spending environment is looking better by the month, and will likely put some significant tailwinds into Alcatel's sales. While I definitely missed out on the early jump in these shares, a pathway to $3.50 (or higher) for the shares is at least worth talking about today.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/073113/if-alcatel-can-keep-turnaround-can-work-alu-cien-csco-jnpr.aspx

Investopedia: Nokia Buys Out Siemens, Are Phones Now On The Block?

There was never really a question as to if Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Siemens (NYSE:SI) would unwind their 50/50 partnership in Nokia Siemens Networks. Siemens had made it quite clear that they were considering all options for monetizing their stake and continuing their own plan to streamline operations. What's more, it was becoming increasingly clear that there was minimal third-party interest and that going the IPO route wasn't likely to realize full value. Curiously, though, Siemens has chosen to sell its stake in the venture to Nokia at a pretty undemanding valuation.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/070213/nokia-buys-out-siemens-are-phones-now-block-nok-si-eric-msft.aspx

Investopedia: Could Alcatel-Lucent's Restructuring Boost Ericsson Further?

At the risk of sounding like I'm looking to bash Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU), I have been thinking more about the company's recently-announced restructuring efforts and wondering if they will help the company as much as they may help the company's rivals. The “law of unintended consequences” is real, and though there are sound motives for the company's moves, it nevertheless could backfire. To that end, I have to wonder if Ericsson (Nasdaq:ERIC) and Huawei are poised to reap the most benefit from Alcatel's self-improvement plans.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/062113/could-alcatellucents-restructuring-boost-ericsson-further-alu-eric-jnpr-cien.aspx

Investopedia: Finisar Perking Up On Datacom, With Telecom (Hopefully) On The Way

With Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Juniper (Nasdaq:JNPR), and Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN) all having decent enough recent quarterly reports, things were set up for Finisar (Nasdaq:FNSR) to do pretty well this quarter. Luckily, the company delivered, as strong datacom sales offset ongoing weakness in telecom. There is plenty of controversy around this name – ranging from customers self-sourcing components to the threat of silicon photonics – but the current stock price doesn't appear to capture all of the potential over the next two or three years.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/062013/finisar-perking-datacom-telecom-hopefully-way-fnsr-jdsu-csco-cien.aspx

Investopedia: Will A New Alcatel-Lucent Plan Lead To Better Results?

Stop me if you've heard this before – Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) has a bold plan to cut costs, refocus the business, and return the company to profits and prosperity. To be fair, the new CEO does deserve a chance to show if his plan can/will work, and the broad strokes outlined today make sense. Even so, this is Alcatel-Lucent and the telecom equipment industry we're talking about, and success is far from guaranteed.

Cut Costs, Cut Businesses
 The centerpieces to the new plan are deep cost cuts and a sharp focus on businesses where Alcatel-Lucent can compete effectively in the coming years.

While the company had been targeting about EUR 500 million in cost cuts by 2015, that target has been doubled. Management intends to achieve this by increasing its direct channel focus with sales and marketing and reducing the scope of its R&D. That's an interesting move, particularly given how many Alcatel-Lucent bulls try to point to the company's patent estate as a store of future value. While it makes ample sense to reduce the scope of R&D (translating those patents into real products and real revenue streams has not gone well), I wonder how it will go over with shareholders.

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Investopedia: Ciena And Carrier Spending - They're Baaa-aack

As much as I've thought (and written) that Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN) was a good way to play the eventual recovery in carrier spending, I couldn't personally get comfortable enough the long-term financial numbers to buy the shares for myself. While that didn't seem so bad over the recent months as the shares lagged the broader market, today's big reaction to second quarter earnings is a little hard to swallow for those of us on the sidelines. The good news, though, is that it really does seem like carrier spending has come back, and with that Ciena shares still look underpriced.

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Investopedia: Alcatel-Lucent Looking At Long Road, But Not Starting From Scratch

To get a sense of just how badly wrong the Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) story has gone, consider that the combined company has never produced a full year of positive free cash flow since the 2006 merger. What's more, while the company still has very relevant share in areas like edge routing, rivals like Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN), Huawei, and ZTE have been taking share, while companies like Nokia Siemens Networks get their acts together.

That's all pretty well known, though, and part of the reason the stock sits below $1.50 today. With a new CEO, new products, and new market opportunities, perhaps Alcatel-Lucent has new life to offer shareholders.

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Investopedia: New Products, Recovering Markets Should Help Juniper In 2013

The wait continues for Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR). With much less exposure to enterprise customers, Juniper has been in a holding pattern as service providers have dramatically slowed their spending. For 2013, however, the company has several relatively new products to drive better sales, and early signs point to that long-awaited rebound in carrier spending. There are still big unknowns regarding Juniper's long-term margin potential, but Juniper could still offer upside at these levels.

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Investopedia: The Street Seems All In On Ciena's Recovery

Optical networking company Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN) reported sales below expectations and lowered its guidance for the fiscal first quarter ... so of course the stock is up about 2% (as of this writing) after the announcement. That's just part of the weirdness that surrounds providers of carrier equipment these days - while 2012 was a pretty rough year, analysts and investors expect big carriers like AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) to start spending again soon. Although Ciena is difficult to value today because of the uncertainty of the pace of the spending recovery, I still believe this is an interesting stock for aggressive investors thinking a few moves ahead.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/The-Street-Seems-All-In-On-Cienas-Recovery-CIEN-ALU-JNPR-INFN1214.aspx

Investopedia: Is Alcatel-Lucent Playing Its Last Cards?

To say that Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) is in serious trouble is to say that water is wet, as these shares have seen a bumpy ride down from the tech bubble peaks in 2000. Despite a lucrative patent estate and solid technology, the company has struggled to translate its intellectual property into successful products and has largely failed to compete effectively with other telco equipment rivals like Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO), Juniper (Nasdaq:JNPR), Huawei and ZTE (OTC:ZTCOY). Now with rumors flying that the company is considering using its patent portfolio to secure financing, it's worth asking if Alcatel-Lucent is down to its final cards to play in its ongoing effort to turn around.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Is-Alcatel-Lucent-Playing-Its-Last-Cards-ALU-CSCO-JNPR-GS1212.aspx

Investopedia: The Softbank-Sprint Tie-Up Seems Like Only The Beginning

Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) has always seemed to be uncommonly controversial for a carrier. Not only has the company had its ups and downs with mergers and acquisitions, but the Street has never seemed entirely comfortable with the its plans vis-a-vis Clearwire (Nasdaq:CLWR). Even now, after the company has reached an agreement to sell a controlling stake to Japan's SoftBank, it doesn't look like there's any imminent end to the controversy and uncertainty.

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Investopedia: Ciena Still Trying To Translate Tech Into Prosperity

I realize that many readers have little or no sympathy for sell-side analysts, but I don't envy them the task of figuring out the telco capex space these days. JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq:JDSU) and Oplink (Nasdaq:OPLK) recently offered solid beat-and-raise quarters that stoked hopes that the much-awaited carrier spending rally has finally come.

And then along comes Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN); a company that has been introducing solid technology and gaining share, but sees less strength in the market right now. As befits its space, Ciena is a tough stock to figure out. While much more promising (and not nearly so beaten down) than Alcatel Lucent (NYSE:ALU), Ciena has to start delivering pretty substantial profit improvements for the stock to really work. The potential is certainly there, but then so are above-average risks as well.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Ciena-Still-Trying-To-Translate-Tech-Into-Prosperity-CIEN-ALU-T-JDSU0904.aspx

Investopedia: Is Aruba Back In A Growth Groove?

Although Aruba Networks' (Nasdaq:ARUN) fiscal third quarter report in May was disappointing (particularly from a guidance standpoint), I liked the stock on a GARP basis. Oddly enough, while this summer has not been a good one for tech companies, the stock has been quite strong over the past three months. While I continue to like the company, I do wonder if Aruba needs to start showing a little more competitive share growth for the stock to continue working well into the future.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Is-Aruba-Back-In-A-Growth-Groove-ARUN-CSCO-MSI-ALU0825.aspx

Seeking Alpha: Alcatel-Lucent - The Rope Is Getting Tighter

When I last wrote on Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) a quarter ago, longs certainly didn't appreciate my skepticism on this company's near-term prospects. Nevertheless, the stock has dropped almost another 40% since then, and now questions are popping up regarding whether the company can cut enough costs to remain a viable contender.

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Alcatel-Lucent - The Rope Is Getting Tighter

Investopedia: Acme Packet Another Company Waiting On The Carrier Revival

There's a long list of companies out there where investors are hoping that carriers finally get back to spending this year, a list that includes Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU), Adtran (Nasdaq:ADTN), Juniper (NYSE:JNPR) and Acme Packet (Nasdaq:APKT). While Acme Packet enjoys good share in the session border controller market (SBC) and ought to benefit from adoption and migration to Voice over LTE (VoLTE) and IMS, bears argue that competitors and alternative technologies will steal much of that potential.

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Investopedia: New Products Need To Carry Juniper Back

Tech hardware is all over the map right now, with investors still quite pleased with F5 (Nasdaq:FFIV), relatively comfortable with Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO), and increasingly down on Riverbed (Nasdaq:RVBD) and Juniper (NYSE:JNPR). The story with Juniper is an interesting one, as this company looks for a revival in carrier spending and new products to return the company to its familiar ground as a growth company.

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