Showing posts with label Allergan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Allergan. Show all posts

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Neurocrine Reaping The Benefits Of A Methodical Approach

As biotechs go, Neurocrine (NBIX) has always been a little different - management is methodical, relatively conservative, and not very promotional. Instead of steadily churning out low-probability drug candidates, the company is careful about what it puts into human studies and management puts in the extra work to lay the groundwork for long-term commercial success. While that can lead to some frustration with what looks like a relatively thin pipeline (a complaint I've had from time to time), Neurocrine seems to understand what goes into developing successful drugs, as seen with the ongoing success of Ingrezza in tardive dyskinesia (or TD).

The biotech space has become more volatile lately, but I continue to see value in Neurocrine shares below $100. Ingrezza makes up more than 60% of my fair value estimate, with most of that coming from the already-approved and marketed TD indication, but elagolix should see FDA approval this year and investors will soon learn if the company's drug for CAH has a future.

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Neurocrine Reaping The Benefits Of A Methodical Approach

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Another Phase III Win For Neurocrine Biosciences

Good news continues to stack up for Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), with the company's partner AbbVie (ABBV) announcing on Wednesday that its first of two Phase III studies of elagolix in uterine fibroids met all of its efficacy endpoints. This continues a pretty good run of success with Neurocrine's late-stage pipeline and brings another potential multi-billion-dollar drug that much closer to approval and commercialization.

While there are still more steps to go through with elagolix in uterine fibroids (namely, full results from both studies, including safety data), the similarities between the Phase III and Phase II results thus far would suggest that there's not much reason for worry (then again "surprises" are by their nature not expected…). Approval of elagolix in 2019 or 2020 would bring another important revenue generator to market for Neurocrine and this incremental step does modestly boost my fair value.

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Another Phase III Win For Neurocrine Biosciences

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Neurocrine Biosciences Shows Again That Sometimes The Tortoise Wins

After a very good 2017, highlighted by the approval and strong initial launch of Ingrezza, Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) has a high bar to make 2018 even better. While a carbon copy repeat of the 100% gain in 2017 is likely too ambitious of a target, Neurocrine should nevertheless benefit from ongoing strength in Ingrezza in tardive dyskinesia, the approval of elagolix in endometriosis, and data on Ingrezza in Tourette's, elagolix in uterine fibroids, and '74788 in CAH before the end of 2018.

All told, Neurocrine is on course to be a four-product, six-indication company in 2022, with the company's drugs primarily addressing large markets with little-to-no strong competition. Although my fair value in the low $90s does not suggest huge undervaluation today, I'm using what I believe to be very conservative approaches to the Tourette's and CAH indications and clinical success in those indications could unlock a lot of value. Accordingly, I still think the risk/benefit balance favors owning these shares.

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Neurocrine Biosciences Shows Again That Sometimes The Tortoise Wins

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Synergy Pharmaceuticals Getting Closer To 'Go Time'

Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) has inched a little higher since I last reviewed the company, climbing a little less than 10% over a time when biotechs in general have declined (as measured by the iShares Biotechnology Index (NASDAQ:IBB) and SPDR Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA:XBI)). On the other hand, Synergy's closest comp, Ironwood (NASDAQ:IRWD) has risen close to 40%.

Synergy remains an interesting biotech opportunity to me, but I think the company has a lot of work to do to reassure the Street that it can really compete on its own in the market and gain real share once its lead drug plecanatide hits the market. Without a large partner (Ironwood has Allergan (NYSE:AGN) and Nektar (NASDAQ:NKTR) has AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) selling its OIC drug Movantik), I think a lot of investors fear that Synergy will never manage to break through and could find it in a situation like XenoPort did with its restless leg drug. I believe there are some key differences between those situations, though, and while I do worry that Synergy's plecanatide sales may ramp more slowly than its bullish analysts' forecast, I think these shares are worth more than $9 on the potential of plecanatide.

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Synergy Pharmaceuticals Getting Closer To 'Go Time'

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Seeking Alpha: Synergy Pharmaceuticals Looks More Interesting Today

I can't really complain with how the Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) story has developed. When I last wrote about the stock in April, I calculated a fair value of just under $6 with the shares trading at around $4 at the time. Since then, the shares have moved up $1 (up about 25%), though there was a big move up to $10 in the meantime as investors reacted very positively to strong Phase III data on the company's lead drug.

Since then, I think reality has set in and dragged the shares down with it. Medically significant constipation (by which I mean a condition that is persistent and not quickly relieved with OTC options) has proven to be a challenging market for Allergan (NYSE:AGN)/Ironwood (NASDAQ:IRWD) and Sucampo (NASDAQ:SCMP)/Takeda (OTCPK:TKPYY), as these companies have had to push direct-to-consumer campaigns to drive awareness. I likewise believe that investors had inflated expectations of an acquisition, and impatience with that process has disappointed some shareholders (or former shareholders).

I do believe that Allergan et al are slowly chipping away at the awareness issue, and that by virtue of its solid efficacy and better tolerability, Synergy can reap the benefits of these early market-building exercises. My fair value estimate has nearly doubled as the successful Phase III results for plecanatide significantly de-risked the value and I believe the company's efficacy/safety trade-off can gain more share than I previously assumed. I do see meaningful risk of further dilution as the company will need to raise funds to build a marketing effort, and investors will likewise have to wait to see whether a lower-dose version of linaclotide can better balance the tolerability issues.

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Synergy Pharmaceuticals Looks More Interesting Today

Monday, July 21, 2014

The Motley Fool: Allergan Stock Earnings: Good Enough to Fight off Valeant?

It's no longer enough to evaluate Allergan's (NYSE: AGN  ) earnings on a stand-alone basis; almost everything that happens with or to Allergan these days is going to be viewed through the lens of how it impacts Valeant's (NYSE: VRX  ) hostile bid for the company and Allergan's efforts to resist that bid. Although Allergan's recent R&D update was not uniformly positive, today's earnings and guidance do serve to raise the stakes a bit, and Valeant's recent complaints to regulators tell me that Allergan has scored a few hits with its own PR program.

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Allergan Stock Earnings: Good Enough to Fight off Valeant?

Sunday, July 20, 2014

The Motley Fool: AbbVie Inc. Wins the Shire

Pfizer couldn't bag AstraZeneca and Valeant is still trying win over Allergan's (NYSE: AGN  ) shareholders, but AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) has managed to close its major deal. AbbVie and Shire (SHPG) announced on Friday that the companies had agreed to a merger that will see AbbVie acquire the Irish-based drugmaker on the previously announced terms of GBP 24.44 cash and 0.896 shares of AbbVie for each Shire share.

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AbbVie Inc. Wins the Shire

Monday, July 14, 2014

The Motley Fool: AbbVie and Shire Close, but Not There Yet

Patience and persistence on the part of AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) may be close to paying off in its pursuit of Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPG  ) . Shire's management has indicated that it can recommend AbbVie's latest offer, and it is an offer that still leaves some upside for AbbVie and its shareholders. It's definitely not a done deal though – not only might the two companies come to an impasse over "other items" still to be resolved, but now that the price is more or less set other bidders may jump into the fray.

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AbbVie and Shire Close, but Not There Yet

Friday, June 20, 2014

The Motley Fool: Will Shire's Journey End in a Ring?

"I should like to save the Shire, if I could," J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring.

British rare disease specialist Shire PLC (NASDAQ: SHPG  ) has become a hot property in this latest round of pharmaceutical merger mania. Not only does Shire offer a relatively low tax rate by virtue of its Irish corporate domicile, the company's focus on rare diseases fits in with the desire of many pharmaceutical companies to focus on therapeutic areas where reimbursement is high and the barriers to entry are substantial.

That Shire continues to get marriage offers is no guarantee that it will consent to do so. Not unlike AstraZeneca, Shire sees itself as a buyer, not a seller, and it may well take a prohibitively high number to seal a deal.

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Will Shire's Journey End in a Ring?

Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Motley Fool: Why Valeant's Offer Is Unlikely to Move the Needle

In the real world, if you ask a person out and they not only tell you "no" but then proceed to offer a multipage summary of all of your failings (at least in their eyes) and why they would be better off alone than with you, it's usually safe to say that it is time to move on. While corporate finance is part of the real world (allowing for liberal definitions of "real"), it certainly doesn't take the same view on rejection – while Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) has, in so many words, told Valeant (NYSE: VRX  ) to drop dead and take its unsolicited offer with it, Valeant remains undeterred and has come back with yet another offer.

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Why Valeant's Offer Is Unlikely to Move the Needle

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Motley Fool: Healthcare Buyout Mania: Now What?

It feels like there's nothing to talk about in the pharmaceutical space these days other than the latest M&A bid. Just in the last day and a half, investors have seen news on five completed or proposed transactions. And I doubt the deal-making is done.

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Healthcare Buyout Mania: Now What?

Monday, May 12, 2014

The Motley Fool: Valeant Pharmaceuticals's Earnings Take a Back Seat To Allergan News

Canadian health care magpie Valeant (NYSE: VRX  ) certainly knows how to stay in the spotlight. Investors simply aren't all that interested in quarterly earnings at a time when the company is actively trying to ratchet up the pressure on Allergan  (NYSE: AGN  ) to accept the company's acquisition offer. Valeant continues to look undervalued as it is likely still in the early to-middle years of a debt-fueled grab for scale. However, as the pushback from Allergan shows, not all of the targets Valeant may choose will welcome the company's efforts at empire-building.

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Valeant Pharmaceuticals's Earnings Take a Back Seat To Allergan News

Thursday, May 8, 2014

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan Remain Independent of Valeant?

Thanks to the now-public interest of Valeant (NYSE: VRX  ) in making Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) its own, not to mention the vocal and financial support of Pershing Square and Bill Ackman, the status quo is gone for good at Allergan. Good first quarter results and improved guidance for the year were both nice to see, but Allergan is going to have to do a lot more to convince its shareholders that a plan for the future that excludes selling out to Valeant has their best interests at heart.

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Can Allergan Remain Independent of Valeant?

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan Find an Alternative To Valeant?

No one will accuse Valeant (NYSE: VRX  ) CEO Mike Pearson of lacking boldness. He has laid out a strategy for turning Valeant into one of the largest pharmaceutical/med-tech companies in the world and has proven more than willing to turn to bold M&A moves to make it happen. Valeant's latest move is far and away the largest – a $47 billion bid (at the time of the offer) for Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) – but the target's acceptance is hardly a sure thing and the company's views about the pharma industry may give investors reason for pause regarding the long-term strategy.

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Can Allergan Find an Alternative To Valeant?

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The Motley Fool: Will Shire PLC Build Or Buy Its Future?

The ideal in the biotech and pharma world may be for a company to develop a strong internal R&D engine that regularly churns out potential blockbuster compounds, but the reality is that most companies have to turn to partnerships and acquisitions to manage risk and maintain growth. Shire (NASDAQ: SHPG  ) built itself into a significant biotech/pharma company on the basis of strong internal CNS and rare disease R&D efforts, but has more recently turned to M&A to improve its prospects. With Shire likely to generate considerable cash flow in the coming years, the question stands as to whether investors would be better-served with additional M&A transactions or a reinvestment into its own internal R&D capabilities.

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Will Shire PLC Build Or Buy Its Future?

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

The Motley Fool: Can Valeant Continue This Growth?

Canada's Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX  ) is a good example of what can be done when a company chooses to go its own way and zig while others zag. In an industry that had becoming increasingly skittish about mergers and acquisitions as a growth driver, Valeant has done about 60 deals in the last six years. In an industry that is increasingly spinning off divisions and focusing on "core operations, Valeant management is willing to go wherever opportunity takes them – prescription drugs, devices, OTC, and branded generics.

The potential merits of Valeant's approach certainly have not gone unnoticed, as the shares have nearly doubled over the past year. Valeant's uncommonly aggressive use of leverage does add some risk to the story, but the company has used its balance sheet to build very sizable franchises in dermatology, eye care, and aesthetics, and the opportunity to launch a "merger of equals" and leverage better operating and tax efficiency could propel the shares further.

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Can Valeant Continue This Growth?

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

In the world of Big Pharma, growth is a precious commodity these days. Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) is a noteworthy exception, though, as the company continues to see strong demand for cornerstone products like Botox an Restasis, as well as its facial aesthetics line. Allergan's pipeline is somewhat more limited than an investor might normally prefer, but the company has been active in pursuing follow-on indications for existing drugs and has had a higher than normal "hit" rate for its pipeline. Though there are frustratingly few true bargains in the pharma space today, Allergan continues to look at least as though it will remain a solid holding.

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Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

Friday, January 24, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Ipsen In Good Shape

Most American investors are familiar with large European drug companies like Sanofi and Novartis (NVS), but the mid-cap drugmakers like Ipsen (OTCPK:IPSEY) don't get as much attention. That's unfortunate, as Ipsen is one of several high-quality smaller European pharmaceutical companies.

Ipsen shares don't look significantly underpriced today, but there could some developments that could drive shares higher. Phase III data on tasquinimod could make this drug a viable alternative in the crowded prostate cancer space, and Ipsen may be on the prowl for licensing or acquisition opportunities to take advantage of a new U.S. oncology sales infrastructure. I'd more interested in these shares closer to EUR 30, but they look like a decent enough hold at today's level.

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Ipsen In Good Shape

Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Motley Fool: A Pain Specialist Buys a Technology Call Option

Endo Health Solutions (NASDAQ: ENDP  ) has not been shy about using M&A to rebuild its growth prospects in the wake of losing patent coverage on Lidoderm and Opana ER. While prior management didn't do well with its M&A, new management has already made some smart (albeit not necessarily cheap) deals for Paladin Labs and Boca Pharmaceutical. Now management is going for for a different sort of deal -- the acquisition of NuPathe (NASDAQ: PATH  ) is hardly a slam dunk value-adding deal, but the upfront consideration of $105 million excluding deal costs is not a terribly high price to pay for taking a chance.

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A Pain Specialist Buys a Technology Call Option

Monday, August 26, 2013

Investopedia: Yet Another Failure Has Rigel Pharmaceuticals Almost Back To Square One

The news from long-suffering biotech Rigel Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:RIGL) just continues to get worse. Rigel has already seen AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) return the rights to R788, its Syk kinase inhibitor for rheumatoid arthritis, and with Monday's announcement of the failure of R343 in allergic asthma, it's worth asking whether there's any real value left in the company's Syk inhibitor program. Although the company still has a couple of clinical trials ongoing, as well as $250 million in cash, these shares are looking more and more like a spin of the roulette wheel than any sort of real investment opportunity.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/082613/yet-another-failure-has-rigel-pharmaceuticals-almost-back-square-one-rigl-azn-agn.aspx