Seeking Alpha: Receptos Shopping For A Partner With Strong Data In Hand

Receptos (NASDAQ:RCPT) has come along quite nicely since I first wrote about it as a Top Idea in August of 2013. The shares' 150%-plus move has been fueled by strong clinical data, as lead drug RPC1063 ('1063) has shown solid efficacy and cleaner safety in relapsing multiple sclerosis and very encouraging data in ulcerative colitis. The latter has created a very real possibility that '1063 could be a multi-indication blockbuster, as an effective oral therapy for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease could be a real blockbuster.

Investors may feel a little starved for big catalysts in 2015. The Phase III RADIANCE and SUNBEAM studies in MS won't have data to show until 2017 and the expectations are already high for the company's expected release of 32-week data from the Phase II ulcerative colitis study. That said, the company may put a new diabetes drug into human studies in 2015 and the company has made no secret that it intends to find a partner for '1063.

These shares aren't nearly the bargain they once were, but there is still significant potential value locked in the MS, UC, and Crohn's programs. It is going to take time to produce the clinical data that it will take to unlock that value, but I'd be in no rush to sell these shares and I would consider them if this recent sell-off continues.

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Receptos Shopping For A Partner With Strong Data In Hand

Seeking Alpha: XenoPort Prepping For Key Data In 2015

Nine months ago, I thought XenoPort (NASDAQ:XNPT) had some appeal for very aggressive investors willing to play the odds that not only would the biotech sector recover, but that the Street would get more bullish on XenoPort's relaunch of Horizant and the prospects of XP23829 ('829) in multiple sclerosis and possibly psoriasis as well. Since then, the shares have risen almost 120%.

Is there still enough upside in XenoPort to make it worth holding these shares? The answer is a guarded "yes". The markets for both psoriasis and multiple sclerosis are each likely to be worth more than $15 billion a year by the time '829 achieves commercial sales, but the company is still facing comparatively long odds for commercial success. That makes the Phase II psoriasis data later this year very significant - a strong indication of efficacy should unlock significant value (by de-risking the outlook), but inadequate results will sap virtually all of the upside.

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XenoPort Prepping For Key Data In 2015

Seeking Alpha: Roche Loses A Little Luster Before Year-End

Even good drug companies have to cope with the fact that drug development is difficult and negative outcomes are more likely than clinical successes. Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) has had plenty of wins over the year, and the company's presentations at September's ESMO meetings included some fantastic results, but the news on Friday was decidedly more negative for Roche as it reported surprisingly disappointing data from its MARIANNE front-line breast cancer study and saw yet another clinical failure in its non-oncology pipeline.

The disappointment of the MARIANNE study is tempered by the company's robust portfolio and deep immuno-oncology pipeline. Even so, the setback to Kadcyla takes some upside out of the story and the shares appear more or less fully valued at this point in time. I believe that the quality of Roche makes holding it still a worthwhile proposition, but investors with new funds to deploy should look around the space a bit first.

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Roche Loses A Little Luster Before Year-End

The Motley Fool: Is Alkermes plc Stock Undervalued?

In simple terms, what Alkermes plc (NASDAQ: ALKS  ) is attempting to do is not easy. Few companies manage to successfully transition from being a licensor of drug formulation technologies to a proprietary drug developer and likewise few independent biotechs successfully take on the challenges of developing drugs for difficult-to-treat conditions like schizophrenia and depression. Alkermes has strong technology and intellectual property in its favor, though, and I for one would not underestimate the long-term potential.

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Is Alkermes plc Stock Undervalued?

The Motley Fool: Why the Market is Wrong About Baxter Stock

Diversified health care player Baxter (NYSE: BAX  ) has done alright so far this year, up almost 10% and ahead of the S&P 500, but there is still a fair bit of skepticism on the name. Analysts continue to fret that Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) will grab considerable market share in hemophilia and that generic competition for other products will add to the revenue erosion. Although this is a challenging period for the company ahead of data on is own long-acting hemophilia product, approval of HyQ, and real leverage in the renal business, Baxter shares continue to look a little undervalued for patient long-term investors.

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Why the Market is Wrong About Baxter Stock

Seeking Alpha: Bluebird Takes Flight On Very Promising, Very Early Data

Investors have had good reason to be skeptical of Bluebird Bio (BLUE). Gene therapy was the "next big thing" in the mid-to-late 1990s and while it is too negative to say it has thus far produced almost nothing of value, it certainly hasn't lived up to "the medicine of tomorrow, today!" hype. While I was bullish on Bluebird Bio back in February, I wasn't entirely surprised to see the shares of this very early-stage, high speculative stock sell off when the biotech sector started wheezing shortly thereafter.

Now, investors have some enticing data to mull over. Over the weekend, Bluebird Bio presented data on two patients in its HGB-205 study of LentiGlobin gene therapy in beta-thalassemia, and while two bluebirds may not make a summer, the surprisingly strong response in these two patients suggests that Bluebird may just have something big on its hands.

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Bluebird Takes Flight On Very Promising, Very Early Data

Seeking Alpha: Receptos Continues To Hit Its Marks

Receptos (RCPT) has given its shareholders a pretty wild ride, even for an early-stage biotech. Up around 125% from when I wrote on it as a Top Idea and 39% from my Christmas Eve update, the intervening time has seen the shares shoot up to $55 (90% higher than the price on Christmas Eve) on expectations for strong Phase II data and rumors of a buyout before the shares were cut in half over two months as that speculation cooled and momentum investors bailed out of biotechs.

Now the roller coaster is shooting higher again as those strong Phase II data on RPC1063 in relapsing multiple sclerosis have materialized. Receptos still has to successfully complete its Phase III study, but the promise in multiple sclerosis can nearly support the stock on its own, let alone adding in the potential from the ulcerative colitis indication and additional compounds in the pipeline.

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Receptos Continues To Hit Its Marks

The Motley Fool: Is Biogen Idec Inc a Buy?

This year has turned against biotech investors, as the long-awaited correction came on hard in March and April. While conditions seem to have stabilized for the time being, Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) remains an outperformer as investors have slower to dump shares of more established biotechs with strong launch and pipeline stories like Biogen, Gilead, and Regeneron. Biogen's pipeline is has higher risk than many of its peers, but the rewards if SMNrx, STX-100, or the anti-LINGO antibody BIIB 033 work out will be considerable and Biogen has lower risk drivers like the ongoing Tecfidera launch and rollout of new hemophilia compounds to keep investors engaged.

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Is Biogen Idec Inc a Buy?

Seeking Alpha: Xenoport's Path Is Long, But The Potential Is There

Potential is a word you hear a lot in biotech, but it's also worth remembering a quote (apocryphally attributed to former Dallas Cowboys defensive lineman Randy White) that goes "potential is a fancy French word that means you haven't done yet".

If XenoPort (XNPT) can establish '829 as a true peer to Biogen Idec's (BIIB) Tecfidera, or possibly better in some respects, the stock is going to do very, very well. Of course, if the data don't come through, this company has very little left other than a record of repeated disappointments.

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Xenoport's Path Is Long, But The Potential Is There

The Motley Fool: Is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Turning a Corner?

Once a darling of the health care space (and a frequent member of "buy and hold forever" lists), Teva Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: TEVA  ) spent about three and a half years in the market's doghouse. Investors bailed out due to worries about competition in the company's lucrative MS franchise, the perception of a dwindling pipeline for major generics, and turmoil in executive leadership. Now it looks as though the company has shored up its MS franchise, rejuvenated its R&D efforts, and become more serious about driving better value in/from the business.

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Is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Turning a Corner?

The Motley Fool: Will Baxter International Inc's Split Unlock Shareholder Value?

If a strategy has worked before, try it again. Baxter (NYSE: BAX  ) has never been shy about identifying businesses that lie outside its core operating focus and being willing to set them free. Edwards Lifesciences, Caremark, and Allegiance Healthcare (now part of Cardinal Health) were all once under the Baxter umbrella, and arguably did better on their own than they would have as parts of Baxter.

Now the company is doing it again, choosing to spin off its biopharmaceuticals business as an independent publicly traded company. Investors cheered the move, as it does remove some issues that were clouding the value of the company's other operations.

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Will Baxter International Inc's Split Unlock Shareholder Value?

The Motley Fool: Biogen Idec Inc's Fortress Is Pricey Real Estate

Outside of orphan drugs it is difficult for drug companies to establish wide moats and essentially dominant a therapeutic area, but Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) is well on its way to doing just that in multiple sclerosis. Not unlike Gilead in anti-viral therapies (particularly hepatitis C) and Novo Nordisk in diabetes, that strong market share has translated into healthy cash flow and robust premiums for Biogen's shares.

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Biogen Idec Inc's Fortress Is Pricey Real Estate

The Motley Fool: Baxter International, Inc. Will Be Nit-Picked, but The Quality Is There

Wall Street can be surprisingly stubborn at times. Right now, for instance, it appears that there's a deep commitment to like Abbott Labs as a recovery play in 2014, but an equal commitment to dump on Baxter (NYSE: BAX  ) and predict significant market share loss to Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) in hemophilia coupled with other imagined disappointments.

To be sure, Baxter is not my favorite stock today, and the company did not provide a perfectly clean fourth quarter on Thursday morning. What Baxter did offer, however, was good enough; I think investors who can be patient with a pretty understated company can do well over the long term with Baxter.

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Baxter International, Inc. Will Be Nit-Picked, but The Quality Is There

The Motley Fool: Baxter International - The Street Is Too Negative On A Proven Champ

Even though it is a large med-tech company with a market cap over $37 billion, Baxter International (NYSE: BAX  ) just doesn't seem to garner all that much investor interest, or at least not as much as peers/rivals like Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) , Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO  ) , CareFusion (NYSE: CFN  ) , and Hospira (NYSE: HSP  ) . Institutions pay attention, though, and investors may be in a good position to benefit from their skepticism. While the Street is wrapped up in trying to guess just how much business Baxter will lose in its hemophilia and specialty pharmaceuticals businesses to competition, it looks as though the market may be missing the forest for the trees.

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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/26/baxter-international-the-street-is-too-negative-on.aspx

Seeking Alpha: Receptos Coming Along Nicely

In making Receptos (RCPT) an Alpha-Rich pick on August 13, I certainly had bullish expectations for the company and the stock. I was attracted by the company's S1P1 modulator technology and the prospects of the lead drug RPC1063 in both multiple sclerosis and ulcerative colitis. Combined with an earlier-stage drug for eosinophilic esophagitis (for which there are no pharmaceutical treatments) and a preclinical oral GLP-1 program, I thought it likely that Receptos would see a higher share price as the MS program matured and the probability of partnership or acquisition grew.

I didn't expect the pace or magnitude of the move that was to come. Receptos shot up almost 100% in just two months. While at least some of that action was likely due to rumors of multiple bidders for the company and the shares did ease off, Receptos still stands about 60% higher today than it did when I first wrote about it. What's more, incremental data from the RADIANCE multiple sclerosis trial will be pushing the drug forward into a Phase III study. Expectations are definitely higher for these shares now, but given the revenue potential of Receptos' pipeline and the possibility of incremental data points over the next year or two, I can see these shares continuing to move higher.

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Receptos Coming Along Nicely

Seeking Alpha: Amicus Takes A Certain Step Back For An Uncertain Step Forward

I'll happily grant that the best path between two points isn't always a straight line, but with all of the ups and downs (mostly downs) from Amicus (FOLD) over the past year, I can understand if investors no longer want to wait around to see if this recent strategic retrenchment proves a sound move for the long-term.

With lead drug migalastat unlikely to make it to market as a monotherapy, little data on combo therapy in Fabry's, and a one year delay in the Pompe program, not to mention Glaxo (GSK) bowing out of the migalastat program, bears have a lot to chew on. I'm somewhat more bullish on the acquisition of Callidus, though, and I think the market may be overlooking signs that migalastat could still be viable as part of a combo therapy. Amicus shares could still be worth as much as $4 today, but investors should note that this is a very high-risk/high-uncertainty opportunity.

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Amicus Takes A Certain Step Back For An Uncertain Step Forward

Seeking Alpha: Xenoport Looks To '829 To Restore Its Lost Glory

Five years ago, XenoPort (XNPT) was a $40 stock, but while the biotech sector has enjoyed a strong run these shares have gone the other way on disappointments over the restless leg drug Horizant and the clinical failures of arbaclofen placarbil. Although I don't see a credible path back to $40 anytime soon, the company's monomethyl fumarate (MMF) prodrug XPS23829 ('829) does give the company at least a fighting chance of grabbing some of the billions of dollars in revenue expected for Biogen Idec's (BIIB) latest blockbuster Tecfidera. While the prospect of capturing some of Tecfidera's potential sales through competitive pricing or clinical differentiation is intriguing, investors shouldn't kid themselves about the risks and uncertainties still in play here.

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Xenoport Looks To '829 To Restore Its Lost Glory

Seeking Alpha: Receptos Could Meet With A More Positive Reception

Investors do well to be very skeptical of the biotech companies that go public in the late stages of a multi-year bull market. In many cases, bankers, executives, and insiders are looking to cash in on hope and hype and exploit a market that isn't too discriminating about the details. So while I went into researching Receptos (RCPT) with ample skepticism, I walk away more than a little intrigued.

Receptos seems like a pretty straightforward story - basically a "2.0" version of the already-successful oral multiple sclerosis drug Gilenya sold by Novartis (NVS), but one with a potentially much better tolerability profile. Add to that the possibility of clinically meaningful activity in ulcerative colitis and a "call option" drug for eosinophilic esophagitis, and Receptos shares may be as much as 50% undervalued even in this aging biotech bull market. What's more, investors won't have long to wait for significant news, as multiple trial read-outs in 2014 should further clarify the odds and opportunities.

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Receptos Could Meet With A More Positive Reception

Investopedia: Can Sanofi Investors Just Blame It On Rio?

Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) was supposed to be a relatively solid Big Pharma company in 2013. True, the company is going through some pressures from patent expirations and internal drug development issues have created a soft spot for growth, but Sanofi's strong emerging market exposure was supposed to help, as was the fact that about one-third of the company's revenue comes from non-branded drug businesses.

Instead, Sanofi delivered a surprisingly large miss for the second quarter, a miss that means a little more in the typically more predictable Big Pharma space. While it may be true that problems in Brazil were a large part of the reported miss, worse than expected results in ex-Brazil emerging markets, vaccines, and animal health, coupled with higher than expected SG&A spending to support new launches, has reset expectations to a lower level. Although Sanofi shares are not overvalued today and the company could demonstrate fairly quickly that Q2 results were just an aberration, it's harder to make a forceful pro-Sanofi argument today.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/080613/can-sanofi-investors-just-blame-it-rio-sny-shpg-biib-amgn.aspx

Investopedia: Elan Shareholders Bring Management To Heel

Financial writers often lament that shareholders are too passive with respect to exercising their rights to oppose management decisions that they disagree with and holding management to account. Well, that can't be said about Elan's (NYSE:ELN) shareholders. Shareholders handed a significant and embarrassing collection of rejections to management, a move that I would argue expresses a very wise lack of confidence in management. With this rejection of management's strategy, I would hope that Elan management sees reason and seeks out the best deal available to sell the company.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/061713/elan-shareholders-bring-management-heel-eln-thrx-biib.aspx