Brown-Forman: Not A Compelling Idea - Softening Volumes, Weaker Margins, And High Valuation

Unexpectedly stronger headwinds from foreign exchange and input costs aren't exactly unusual today, but they are combining to make life more challenging for Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.A)(NYSE:BF.B). On top of that, the underlying volumes in spirits aren't really that exceptional and the stock remains richly-valued by most approaches.

These shares are down around 10% since my last update, underperforming consumer staples (the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)) overall and names I preferred back in the day like Diageo (DEO) (that article is here) and Pernod Ricard (OTCPK:PRNDY) (that article is here). Still, while the long-term returns haven't been bad at all (a double-digit annualized total return over the last 10 and 15 years), the valuation today is no clear bargain to me, and I don't really find this a compelling idea even after the sharp post-earnings reaction.

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Brown-Forman: Not A Compelling Idea - Softening Volumes, Weaker Margins, And High Valuation

Brown-Forman Outperforming Peers And Priced Accordingly

It takes a crisis to prove out a strategy, and thus far through the pandemic, Brown-Forman’s (BF.B) brand-building capabilities have served the company well. While different reporting calendars due create some challenges with comparability, Brown-Forman’s underlying sales performance has been a clear standout in a sector where many companies reported 30%-plus declines.

Valuation is the main issue I see, as “stretched” doesn’t really do it justice and Brown-Forman almost makes Remy Cointreau (OTCPK:REMYY) look reasonably valued. While Brown-Forman does have excellent margins and ROICs (both of which contribute to a justifiable peer premium), I don’t see enough here in terms of growth or further margin leverage to support this premium.

 

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Brown-Forman Outperforming Peers And Priced Accordingly