Seeking Alpha: Alcoa Trying To Find The Path To A Better Neighborhood

What do you do when your neighbors are committed arsonists who know that they don't have to face the full costs and consequences of their actions? That may be rather extreme and hyperbolic, but it's how I've started to think about Alcoa (NYSE:AA). I really like Alcoa's progress in reducing its cost structure , shutting down higher-cost capacity, and leveraging itself more toward downstream higher value-add applications, but a lot of the progress the company has made has been undone by Chinese producers willing to produce at uneconomic standalone prices due to input cost supports from the Chinese governments.

I think there's an argument to be made that Alcoa ought to trade closer to $16 to $17 today, but just a few minor model adjustments can drop the fair value down to $10 or lower. Alcoa is well-positioned to play a more prominent role in the aerospace cycle, but the company's balance sheet likely restricts the amount (or at least the pace) of transformation from this point and other drivers like increased use of aluminum in auto production aren't certain.

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Alcoa Trying To Find The Path To A Better Neighborhood

Investopedia: For Alcoa, It Can Still Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) management must feel like they're running on a treadmill or swimming in a flume. No matter the progress that the company makes with productivity or improved downstream operations, it feels as though ongoing global supply growth strips away the advantageous. So, although Alcoa continues to look underpriced, the brutal competition in this market makes it a hard stock to recommend to investors

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Investopedia: Alcoa Is A Potential Value Call

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is looking like a pretty good example of a company that is doing a lot of the right things internally, but can't make much objective progress in the face of significant industry and economic headwinds. Alcoa seems better positioned than Noranda (NYSE:NOR), Century Aluminum (Nasdaq:CENX) or Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), and the stock is trading below historical forward multiples, but it seems hard to imagine the stock really moving until aluminum prices improve.

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Investopedia: Familiar Problems Stalk Alcoa

Another quarter has rolled by, but precious little has changed for giant aluminum company Alcoa (NYSE:AA). The company's growth and cost initiatives continue to deliver real (and positive) results in the downstream business, but there's little they can do to navigate around the difficult operating environment for its upstream businesses. And once again, the shares look pretty cheap on most metrics, but investors could be looking at dead money here. Investopedia Broker Guides: Enhance your trading with the tools from today's top online brokers.

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Investopedia: Alcoa's Fourth Quarter The Best Of A Bad Situation

A lot of investors spend their time looking for best of breed investments; the best-run companies within particular sectors. However, what should an investor do when the entire breed is in disrepute and on the way to the pound? Alcoa (NYSE:AA) does indeed have a claim on being one of (if not the) best aluminum company out there, and is undervalued on long-term averages, but investors will struggle to get ahead with this name if aluminum prices don't rebound. (For more, see Earning Forecasts: A Primer.)

A Tough End to the Year  
Alcoa arguably made the best of a bad situation in the fourth quarter. Results weren't bad relative to expectations, though there was some "noise," but absolute performance certainly showed some weakness.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Alcoas-Fourth-Quarter-The-Best-Of-A-Bad-Situation-AA-CENX-KALU-NOR0111.aspx