Seeking Alpha: Lundbeck Delivers Some Data-Driven Upside

Danish specialty pharmaceutical company H Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY) (LUN.CO) is facing down some steep patent cliffs, as about two-thirds of the company's first revenue loses patent protection over the next two and a half years. Management hopes that significant new drugs launched with partners Takeda (OTCPK:TKPYY) and Otsuka (OTCPK:OTSKY) will more than fill the gap, and some recent updates on key drug Brintellix have been positive. Lundbeck is also looking at upside potential from desmoteplase, brexpiprazole, and Northera (which Lundbeck is acquiring in its announced deal for Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP)), though these are higher-risk options today. All told, while Lundbeck remains a risky proposition, there is still upside to over $30.

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Lundbeck Delivers Some Data-Driven Upside

Seeking Alpha: Lundbeck Starting Slow, But Still Looking For The Big Finish

H Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY) (LUN.CO) remains in a "hurry up and wait" gray area. Key drugs like Brintellix and Abilify Maintena are only just getting started and investors are on tenterhooks waiting for Phase III data on key pipeline candidates like brexpiprazole and desmoteplase. While the shares still look undervalued today, further progression in the Brintellix launch and key pipeline updates will likely lead to significant revisions in estimated value before 2014 is over.

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Lundbeck Starting Slow, But Still Looking For The Big Finish

The Motley Fool: The Chelsea Therapeutics International Drama Has At Least One More Act

Even by the liberal standards of biotech, Chelsea Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CHTP  ) has given its investors a wild ride as the stock has bounced around on exceptionally mixed data on lead drug Northera. Investors have already faced both the ecstasy of FDA panel approval, and the agony of FDA rejection. Now the shares are rocketing again, jumping almost 100% on Wednesday in the wake of a convincing panel vote in favor of Northera despite a decidedly negative FDA stance in its pre-meeting briefing.

What happens next is anybody's guess. The FDA approves almost 90% of the drugs that are recommended by its panels, and the 16-1 vote on Tuesday would normally be seen as a strong endorsement. Chelsea's data package is one of the messiest I've seen in a long time, but orthostatic hypotension is a significantly under-served market and it doesn't take particularly bold assumptions to derive an appealing target price.

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The Chelsea Therapeutics International Drama Has At Least One More Act