Seeking Alpha: Zhongpin - Market Has Doubts About Proposed Deal

I've had a love/hate relationship with China'a Zhongpin (HOGS) for some time now. I love emerging market food stories, and I believe ongoing consolidation in meat processing in China plays into this company's hands. What I don't love, though, is the company's ongoing capacity additions in an arguably already over-built market, to say nothing of the company's emphasis on selling through company-owned stores.

With Tuesday's developments, though, this story may be close to its final squeal.

An Appealing Bid …Maybe
Shortly after the open on Tuesday, Zhongpin announced that it had received a letter from the company chairman Xianfu Zhu offering to take the company private for $13.50 per share in cash. At the time of the letter, Mr. Zhu already owned more than 17% of the company's shares.

Please read the full piece here:
Zhongpin - Market Has Doubts About Proposed Deal

Investopedia: Zhongpin Could Be Hog Heaven For Investors

Although the scandals surrounding small Chinese stocks in 2010 and 2011 never crept as high as the huge companies like Petrochina (NYSE:PTR) or Lenovo (OTCBB:LNVGY.PK), Zhongpin (Nasdaq:HOGS) did come in for closer scrutiny and doubt. Although history suggests investors can never completely trust any company, hog producer Zhongpin may yet be a sound strategy for benefiting from improving standards of living in the PRC.

The Number Four Player in the Protein of Choice  
Zhongpin is the fourth-largest pork processor/packer in China, but holds less than 1% share of the hog slaughter market and the larger players will scarcely familiar to most readers in North America (Shanghui, China Yurun, and People's Food). With the top five producers holding less than 10% share, the Chinese market is a far cry from the highly concentrated U.S. market that is largely dominated by companies like Tyson (NYSE:TSN), Smithfield (Nasdaq:SFD), Seaboard (AMEX:SEB), Swift (owned by Brazil's JBS) and Cargill, where the top four companies have over 60% of the market.

Please read more here:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Zhongpin-Could-Be-Hog-Heaven-For-Investors-HOGS-TSN-SFD-SEB0116.aspx

Investopedia: Tyson Already Looks Overcooked

When last I reviewed Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), I commented that it would be an interesting stock to buy around one times book value. As it turns out, the stock briefly touched that level and had a decent run from there. Now, though, it seems there are growing expectations of improvement in the chicken market and sustainable profitability in beef and pork; so much so that there really doesn't seem to be much upside left in these shares.


Familiar Challenges Close Out the Fiscal Year 
A lot of what went on in Tyson's fiscal fourth quarter will sound familiar. Sales growth looked impressive at nearly 13%, with very strong price growth in excess of 12% and very modest volume growth of less than 1%. Top line growth was led up an impressive 16% in beef, where prices rose almost 19%, and 14% in pork. Chicken revenue rose a more sedate 9% and prepared food revenue rose less than 4%, on a nearly 3% decline in volume.


Read more here:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Tyson-Already-Looks-Overcooked-TSN-PPC-SAFM-HRL-SLE-HNZ-KFT-GIS1124.aspx

(Repost) Investopedia: Does Tyson Deserve Better?

Tyson (NYSE:TSN) is a tricky stock. Commodity food producers like Tyson almost never get the valuation that packaged food companies like Hormel (NYSE:HRL) and General Mills (NYSE:GIS) carry. Even with that being said, though, Tyson has shown itself to be relatively less volatile than other protein producers but still gets no premium for that distinction. If Tyson can somehow maintain its current levels of free cash flow production, this is a stock that value investors should seriously consider.


Very Mixed Performance for Q2
Tyson's fiscal second quarter was a real mixed bag - solid top-line performance, but not a lot of great news on profitability. Tyson reported that revenue grew about 12% in the second quarter, comfortably above the average analyst estimate. Growth was consistently positive across the board, with the company's large beef operations showing 19% revenue growth and the pork business jumping 26%. Even as a laggard, the poultry business was still up 10%.

Profits were not nearly so solid. Gross margin slid to 6.7% from 8.2% a year earlier; not a surprise, given the increase in grain, energy, packaging and other inputs. Operating income fell 12% from last year, and the operating margin compressed by 1.2%. Although operating income in the pork segment more than doubled (and margins were better than 10%), the profit in beef fell by a quarter and poultry income dropped nearly 68%.


To read the full article, follow the link:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Does-Tyson-Deserve-Better-TSN-HRL-SFD-SAFM-PPC0512.aspx

Check Out Adecoagro

It probably didn't get much attention during the week, but I noticed an interesting F-1 filing during the week. Adecoagro filed to go public, and I'd suggest anybody with an interest in the farming industry, or a desire to invest in farming operations, take a look. It's a long read, though, so I can't hope to give more than a high-level view.

Who And What It Is

Adecoagro is active in farming, cattle, dairy, sugar, and ethanol in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. The company controls 287K acres, spread over 21 farms in Argentina, 15 in Brazil, and 2 in Uruguay. In addition, the company has 3 rice processing facilities, a 47K+ liter dairy operation, 2 coffee processing plants, 7 grain conditioning/storage facilities, and 2 sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil with 5.2M ton crush capacity.

A bit less than half of the company's land is suitable for crop farming, while about one-third of it is used in cattle-raising. Not surprising for a South American ag company, soybeans make up more than half of Adecoagro's crop production.

Also worth mentioning is that George Soros (or rather, a company owned and controlled by him) owns about one-third of the company.

How It's Doing

Okay, that's the quick summary of what they are. How is Adecoagro doing? A quick read of the F-1 suggests that the company might be going public more to cash in on the buzz over agriculture (and the lack of investable plays) than to exploit solid financials. The company's free cash flow production has been lousy for a years now, and the company's crop yields have been very dicey – while the company has seen a good rebound through the first nine months, 2009 and 2008 were terrible. At least the company's balance sheet is in decent shape – for an ag company, the debt-equity ratio of about two-thirds isn't bad.

All in all, Adecoagro is a company I'm going to try to pay attention to going forward. I haven't dug into the numbers enough yet, but I suspect there is ample room for better financial performance, particularly given the disappointing yields of 2009 and 2008. What's more, it will be a publicly-traded ag company easily bought and sold in the U.S. and that is quite rare.

A Shopping List

On a global basis, there are ample publicly-traded ag companies. In Latin America, there Marfrig, BrasilAgro, Cresud (Nasdaq: CRESY), SLC Agricola, and San Martinho. Of those, only Cresud is listed in the U.S., though some of these ADRs have decent volume (like Marfrig) and trading in countries like Brazil is getting easier and easier.

Of course, there other options around the world as well. China Agri-Industries, China Yurun, Mengniu, Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS), Astra Agro Lestar, Golden Agri-Resources, and Indofood Agri are all worth at least a look, and there are more than a half-dozen palm oil companies of notable size. And then there are Viterra and Canada's Alliance Grain Traders – both of which are perhaps a little easier for U.S. investors to follow.

Whew... a long list to be sure, but I figure anybody who shares my near-obsessive interest in farmland investments might find it to be useful. But it's interesting to me how relatively few options there are that are listed on U.S. exchanges – beyond Bunge (NYSE: BG) and ADM (NYSE: ADM), you pretty much have to look at second-level plays like fertilizer companies (like Potash (NYSE: POT)) or seed companies (like Monsanto (NYSE: MON)).

Maybe Wait For A Pullback?
Given the big spike in food prices, and the rampant media attention that has gone with it, food is a hot space now. Consequently, investors should not expect to find all that many bargains in the space. Companies like Zhongpin and Mengniu have interesting long-term prospects, and companies like Alliance Grain would be interesting on pullbacks, but there are a lot of valuations in the space today that probably won't be sustainable. That leaves investors looking at riskier plays like Monsanto if they want bargains.

So, if you share my interest in the food and ag sector, I strongly suggest looking up Adecoagro's F-1 on Edgar. It's a good read and even if you aren't interested in the company, it can be a good resource for those wanting to learn more about the sector and South American farming in particular.

Disclosure – I own shares of Monsanto

Update - Forgot to mention ... Adecoagro is looking to raise about $400M in its IPO and will trade under the symbol "AGRO".

Meaty Results From Zhongpin and Tyson

These are pretty fat days to be in the protein business. Corn and soy prices, the two primary feed ingredients, are about as low as they have been in a few years, while prices for hogs and cattle are quite high. That margin, which goes by the somewhat grizzly name of "crush spread", is music to the ears of major meat producers like Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), while China's Zhongpin (Nasdaq:HOGS) also continues to see a benefit from ongoing economic development in its home country. 

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Meaty-Results-From-Zhongpin-And-Tyson-TSN-HOGS-SFD-MCD-YUM-PEP-KFT0512.aspx