Showing posts with label Exact Sciences. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Exact Sciences. Show all posts

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Exact Sciences: Overreaction Achievement Unlocked

When I last wrote about ever-controversial Exact Sciences (EXAS), I said that I preferred to wait for another inevitable overreaction to news. The shares are pretty much the same price now as they were then, and there’s the advantage of getting another two quarters of financial data in hand, not to mention some encouraging clinical data on new biopsy tests under development.

Although there’s more volatility here than I normally like, and management’s execution hasn’t been flawless, the long-term opportunity is pretty interesting. I’m still a little concerned about the med-tech sector re-rating down off of historically high levels, but that’s a “you pays your money, you takes your chances” sort of boilerplate risk. Given that I see upside into the $50’s, I’d say this is a name to consider, but do bear mind that this stock is quite a bit more volatile and controversial than you might otherwise think based upon the product, market, and financials to date.

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Exact Sciences: Overreaction Achievement Unlocked

Monday, March 19, 2018

Waiting For The Next Overreaction With Exact Sciences

Although Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) isn’t that old of a company, a couple general rules of thumb seem to have emerged – the company’s non-invasive Cologuard test for colorectal cancer is going to continue to gain share, and shorts are going to continue to look for any cracks in the wall as a way to keep holding on to their bearish thesis. With the company outperforming expectations in 2017 (to the tune of nearly 170% revenue growth and 70%-plus gross margins) and the share price up nearly another 150% over the past twelve months, patient longs have been well-rewarded for sticking with this up-and-coming molecular diagnostics company.

Not surprisingly, given the robust growth, these shares are trading at a pretty rich multiple today. Although more beat-and-raise performances are certainly possible, and the company has only penetrated somewhere around 3% to 4% of its addressable market, I would wait for another bad news event (likely more perceived than real) before making a big commitment to the shares.

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Waiting For The Next Overreaction With Exact Sciences

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Exact Sciences Leveraging Coverage Wins And Volume Growth

Small-cap diagnostics company Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) has had quite the run since I last wrote up the company. While I thought the Street was too negative on the prospects for insurance coverage and uptake/usage of the company's Cologuard colon cancer test, I didn't expect the shares to shoot up over 350% in only about a year.

Exact Sciences remains a controversial name, and with a short interest close to 34%, I expect the debates about the company and the shares to remain heated. Nevertheless, the company's direct-to-consumer TV campaign has stimulated volume, and the company's now up to about 80% of eligible/targeted lives covered by insurance. Ongoing uncertainty about health insurance laws in the U.S., usage trends, and cost-benefit analyses will keep the volatility simmering, but the company does now at least have a credible pipeline beyond Cologuard to debate.

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Exact Sciences Leveraging Coverage Wins And Volume Growth

Monday, March 7, 2016

Seeking Alpha: Exact Sciences Traveling A Familiar, Tough Road

As I've written in reference to med-tech in the past, sometimes FDA approval is the relatively easy part of the process. Almost every company can talk up the prospects for an experimental drug, device, or diagnostic test (with sell-side analysts dutifully parroting them), but products don't sell themselves and navigating the correct path through patient/doctor education, pricing, reimbursement, and so on is trickier than many investors realize or expect.

When last I wrote about Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) I mentioned the risk that the company could get an adverse ruling from the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), and that happened. While the initial ruling wasn't a clear-cut "don't use" for the company's Cologuard test, it wasn't the unambiguous positive decision that investors were hoping for and that would have spurred widespread commercial reimbursement in 2016.

Absent a final ruling from the USPSTF, Exact Sciences is in a tough spot. A negative USPSTF determination doesn't prevent private insurers from covering Cologuard, but it gives them an excuse not to and/or to push hard for pricing concessions. While I've remodeled for a slower uptake of the test, a lower ASP, and higher spending, I still arrive at a fair value that suggests meaningful undervaluation. If the company can deliver the expected volumes this year investors may reconsider the name, but if the uncertainty about reimbursement starts impacting that ramp, all bets will be off.

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Exact Sciences Traveling A Familiar, Tough Road

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Exact Sciences' Significant Upside Looks Reasonably Priced

Things have gone well for Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) since I last wrote about this up-and-coming diagnostics company in July of 2014. With a favorable CMS coverage decision in hand and a commercial launch underway, the shares have appreciated more than 40% and outdone the $20 base-case fair value I laid out at the time.

Since commercialization has begun, Exact Sciences has followed a path that should be familiar to the more grizzled veterans of med-tech stocks - namely, adoption hasn't ramped up quite as quickly as the Street hoped and it is costing more money to build and support the sales effort. As is, the shares look pretty much fairly valued to me today.

Seeing the Cologuard designated a Class A or Class B test by the USPSTF would be a significant help in securing commercial insurance coverage, but a cost effectiveness study due later this year could pose a threat to future pricing, as does competitive blood-based tests on the way. I'd certainly be happy to reconsider the shares on a pullback, but it would take some combination of a lower price, faster adoption, more assurance on pricing, better visibility into European sales, and/or more color on the pipeline to get me more bullish right now.

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Exact Sciences' Significant Upside Looks Reasonably Priced

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Amidst Ongoing Doubts, Exact Sciences Still Offers Opportunity

For a modestly-sized diagnostics stock, Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) seems to generate an above-average level of animated response (I'd say "discussion", but a quick look at the comments section of EXAS articles shows less discussion and more squabbling). I have often found that controversy can mean opportunity, as it often reflects wildly divergent viewpoints, and I continue to believe that is the case with Exact Sciences.

My thesis in brief - the Cologuard works, is a meaningful step forward in the detection, prevention, and treatment of colorectal cancer, and will be reimbursed at a rate that allows Exact Sciences to earn solid profits, though likely not as quickly as some on the Street expect. I believe these shares can trade into the high teens with an FDA approval and favorable coverage decision, and I expect the second half of this year to be a pretty active period for the company and stock.

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Amidst Ongoing Doubts, Exact Sciences Still Offers Opportunity

Monday, December 23, 2013

Seeking Alpha: The Inexact Art Of Valuing Exact Sciences's Opportunity

In the year or so since I last looked at Exact Sciences (EXAS), quite a bit has changed and most of it for the better. While top-line data from the company's pivotal study of Cologuard didn't live up to the most bullish hopes, I believe it was more than enough for approval and commercial adoption. The company has also decided to keep its tests in-house (meaning it doesn't have to share profits with testing companies) and laid out a logical marketing strategy to target the most probable high-volume users. Last and not least, the company should have a Medicare coverage decision in hand not too long after approval and in time for the commercial launch.

Even with all of these ostensibly positive developments, the shares have lagged the market over the past year (up about 12%). Some of this can be tied to excessive optimism and some of the normal pessimism that tends to hit med-tech stocks as commercialization looms larger on the horizon. Some can also be tied to concerns about reimbursement and whether the Cologuard data was good enough for real commercial uptake. I'm bullish on Exact Sciences at these levels, though I expect a great deal of debate about the ultimate level of reimbursement and market share for the company.

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The Inexact Art Of Valuing Exact Sciences's Opportunity

Monday, October 1, 2012

Seeking Alpha: Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance

Investors with many years of experience in biotech know there's something to the idea that the best time to prepare for war is during peace (and vice versa). With the biotech sector heading for its second straight year of strong returns, it's worth asking whether investors are getting a little too cavalier about risk and whether investors in the sector are getting set up for a sizable correction.

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Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Seeking Alpha: For Exact Sciences, Approval May Be The Easy Part

Much as investors may wish it were true, it's not always the case that a great drug, test or medical device meets with real commercial success. Launching new med-tech products always involves an intricate dance between efficacy, patient control (in other words, doctors' "turf"), compliance, cost/benefit, and reimbursement. That could prove to be especially relevant in the case of Exact Sciences (NASDAQ: EXAS) and its non-invasive Cologuard colorectal cancer test.

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For Exact Sciences, Approval May Be The Easy Part

Monday, March 5, 2012

Seeking Alpha: Exact Sciences Could Be Exactly What Biotech Investors Need

Genomic testing has been a mixed blessing for investors thus far. While progress in the lab and clinic has been significant, the investment picture has followed a pretty familiar pattern - huge enthusiasm (and overvaluation) up front, crushing disappointment, and then general apathy and pessimism. If the pattern continues, a host of commercial successes should begin to appear over the next few years.

One of the more promising molecular diagnostics companies to watch at present is Exact Sciences (EXAS) - a small biotech company in pivotal studies for its non-invasive screening test for colon cancer.

Two Years To The Starting Line
If things go to plan, Exact Sciences should be launching the Cologuard test about two years from now. As of the company's last report, there are 59 sites enrolling patients for its pivotal study, and another 20 or so should come online in the first quarter of 2012.

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Exact Sciences Could Be Exactly What Biotech Investors Need

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Investopedia: Immucor Passes Its Last Test


Perhaps moreso than in any other industry, there are companies in medical technology that just seem destined to eventually get bought out. A leading player in immunohematology, Immucor (Nasdaq:BLUD) was a very good example of this type of company and the Immucor announced on Tuesday morning that it had accepted a bid from private equity group TPG Capital. 

The Terms of the Deal 
Immucor shareholders are going to get $27 in cash for each of their shares, a 30% premium to the stock price on Friday but still shy of the stock's all-time high in 2007 of $39.96. At this price, Immucor is going out at a reasonable price/sales multiple (a common metric for med-tech deals) and the company does not seem to be leaving much cash on the table with respect to a discounted cash flow model. (Valuing firms in this sector can seem like a black art, but there is a systematic way to pin a price on potential. For more, see Using DCF In Biotech Valuation.)

Not that it will matter much to the selling shareholders, but this deal further extends TPG Capital's involvement in the health care sector. Arguably more known for involvement in deals for companies like Neiman Marcus, Univision and TXU, TPG has investment interests in other significant health care companies like Biomet, Quintiles and Surgical Care Affiliates




To read the complete article, please click below:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Immucor-Passes-Its-Last-Test-BLUD-JNJ-BIO-DHR-GRPO-LMNX-EXAS0705.aspx

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Companies With Big MDx Dreams

This is a relatively unusual quiet period in medical technology, as there are so few emerging sectors that are really capturing attention and drawing high stock multiples. One of the areas that still is drawing attention, however, is molecular diagnostics. A subset of the lucrative multi-billion dollar diagnostics market, molecular diagnostics focuses on the use of modern life sciences technology to use genomic and/or proteomic expression information to diagnose or predict disease. (Find an investment that will give your portfolio a shot in the arm. To learn more, check out A Checklist For Successful Medical Technology Investment.)  

Molecular diagnostics (often abbreviated as MDx) has garnered a lot of hope, enthusiasm, and more recently, disappointment. Although many of the leaders in this space are some of the large companies investors might expect (Roche (Nasdaq:RHHBY), et al), there are several small companies that could give risk-seeking investors an interesting play on the space. 


Please follow the link for the full piece:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Small-Companies-With-Big-MDx-Dreams-CRA-EXAS-GHDX-NSPH-SQNM-LMNX-CPHD0929.aspx