Seeking Alpha: Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now

A year ago, I discussed Thompson Creek (TC) as a high-risk/high-reward mining stock opportunity that was increasingly dependent on bringing its Mt. Milligan copper-gold project into production on time and on budget. As stock calls go, this one delivered more of the "high-risk" than the "high-reward", though the 15% decline in the shares since that report isn't terrible compared to the performance of other small miners like Taseko (TGB) or General Moly (GMO) over the same period.

Since that last report, Thompson Creek has started production at Mt. Milligan and molybdenum market conditions have continued to be adverse to the company's interests. As is often the case for mining companies, Thompson Creek's future depends greatly on future metal prices (which they cannot control) and future mining costs (which they can control at least to a point). I believe current copper futures prices are good enough for this stock to work, so it is now about whether the ore grades and operating efficiencies come in as expected. With a cost-focused CEO at the helm, I'm optimistic on that score and I believe there's worthwhile upside at these levels.

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Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now

Seeking Alpha: Thompson Creek Walking A Very Fine Line

While a lot of investors seem to love David-versus-Goliath underdog stories, I think they too often forget a key detail - what makes that story so special is how unlikely the outcome was; normally David gets absolutely pasted and ends up either with a bunch of tubes coming out of him or in a box. In the case of a stock like Thompson Creek (TC), then, I think investors are often too willing to look past the serious operational and macro risks that go capacity expansion stories at small miners.

That grim opening probably suggests that I'm bearish on Thompson Creek Metals. In point of fact, I'm not. I think Thompson Creek is a very interesting speculation at this point. But I do believe it's important for investors considering these shares to appreciate that there are sizable risks here and a happy ending is far from guaranteed.

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Thompson Creek Walking A Very Fine Line

Investopedia: Thompson Creek Hopes Short-Term Pain Leads To Long-Term Gain

It takes money to make money, and that lesson is proving painful for Thompson Creek (NYSE:TC) and its investors. Higher than expected development costs for the critical Mt. Milligan project have dented management credibility, while dilutive financing has smacked the stock. Making matters worse, investors seem to be back in one of those moods where steel (the primary market for molybdenum) and copper (a major future commodity for Thompson Creek) are doomed to eternal malaise.

Thompson Creek is absolutely not a stock for the mortgage money, nor for impatient investors, but for those who believe a steel rebound is probable and want an undervalued play on a small industrial metals miner, this is a stock worth checking out.

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