Investopedia: Toll Teetering

Back in June, I was cautiously optimistic on the shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), provided that "the economy does not slide back into recession". Nowadays, that concern is looking more ominous, and uncertainties seem to be weighing on consumer sentiment. Toll Brothers is still the best property on the homebuilding block, but these days that may be like asking investors to choose between a haunted house designed by Disney and one designed by Lovecraft. Sure, there's a difference but they're both still haunted houses.


Not a Lot of Good News in the Third Quarter  
Toll Brothers reported revenue of $394 million for the third quarter, down about 13% in dollar terms from the year-ago level. Undercut by a 14% drop in units, Toll Brothers actually missed the average analyst guess, but investors should note that there was a pretty wide spread for revenue estimates, which certainly befits the uncertain state of housing.

Read the full piece at Investopedia:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Toll-Teetering-TOL-PHM-DHI-HOV-BZH-KBH0825.aspx

Investopedia: Toll Brothers Shows Not All Housing Is Terrible

The housing news cycle is still focused on the negative. The dominant stories from day to day still tend to revolve around the large volumes of bank-owned properties, the ongoing issues with the foreclosure process, and more and more stories of the malfeasance of banks, mortgage brokers, realtors and borrowers.

Wise investors know better than to just read the headlines without looking a little deeper. To that end, looking at the recent earnings report from Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) suggests that the higher-end housing market is doing OK and seems on track for recovery. That's not such good news for builders like Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV), Lennar (NYSE:LEN) or D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), but a recovery somewhere is better than bad news everywhere.

Underlying Second Quarter Results Seem a Little Better 

To be clear, it was not as though the Toll Brothers earnings report was uniformly fantastic. Revenue came in as expected with growth of 3%, but bottom-line earnings were worse than expected due in part to higher impairment charges. While the company did see solid improvement in gross margin (excluding impairments), SG&A was a little higher.

Please follow this link for the full piece:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Toll-Brothers-Shows-Not-All-Housing-Is-Terrible-TOL-LEN-DHI-PHM-HD-LOW-MHK0601.aspx