Showing posts with label HudBay Minerals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HudBay Minerals. Show all posts

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Silver Wheaton Still Looks Like A Quality Option

Investors have plenty of options for investing in silver, including silver miners like Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE:FSM), Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS), and Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE), bullion ETFs (as well as mining ETFs), physical bullion, numismatic silver, and so on. Amidst those options, I think streaming specialist Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) remains a strong candidate, given its low fixed cost structure, attractive balance sheet/liquidity, and disciplined approach. Although weaker silver prices and producer missteps are both threats, weaker prices would at least potentially create more streaming opportunities to generate long-term value.

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Silver Wheaton Still Looks Like A Quality Option

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Seeking Alpha: The Easy Part May Be Over For Vedanta Resources

India-focused Vedanta Resources Plc (OTCPK:VDNRF) (VED.L) has come along pretty nicely since I identified it as an undervalued resource company back in December of 2013. After a 20% run that has outpaced peers like Glencore Plc (OTCPK:GLNCY), Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), and BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), I'm not quite so bullish on the shares. Although Vedanta has much to gain from more efficient operations, a more pro-business government in India, and stronger base metal prices, ongoing operating challenges in copper, aluminum, and iron ore are not to be ignored. There's still a lot of self-improvement potential here, but it won't be light work and investors will have to have some patience.

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The Easy Part May Be Over For Vedanta Resources

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due

I wrote about Hudbay Minerals (HBM) as a Top Idea almost a year ago to the day, and in that time, the stock is up 56% - not quite matching fellow Top Idea First Quantum (OTCPK:FQVLF) over that time (up 70%), but still doing pretty well amidst a better environment for copper miners (with Lundin Mining (OTCPK:LUNMF) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) also up nicely over the past year). This performance comes without a huge improvement in copper prices and with Hudbay still facing some significant financing needs to get its growth projects up and running.

While I still like Hudbay quite a lot in terms of it being a quality mining company, I'm not as bullish given the good run in the shares. The acquisition of Augusta Resource (AZC) adds some significant long-term growth potential, but not so much to today's NAV. With a fair value around $11.50, I see less margin of error for production, operating costs, and construction projects, but still some upside remaining.

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Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Seeking Alpha: Delays And Soft Guidance Dent HudBay, But There's Still Value Here

I wrote about HudBay (HBM) as an Alpha-Rich investment candidate back in July of this year, and with the stock up more than 20% (against 8% for the S&P 500), it has been a decent call. To be fair, though, picking a beaten-down mining stock in the summer of this year was a good move in general and investors in companies like Teck (TCK), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and Rio Tinto (RIO) have also done pretty well over that same period.

I continue to believe that HudBay is a well-run and substantially undervalued mining company with high-value assets like Constancia (CP) and Lalor Lake (Lalor) likely to significantly increase production, revenue, and profits in the coming years. Unfortunately, while the stock has worked reasonably well, the company has seen some of the construction and development setbacks that are common to the industry. Higher costs at Lalor, cost overruns at CP, and some shuffling around of capex priorities do lead me to trim my NAV estimate for the stock, but I still believe this is a significantly undervalued stock.

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Delays And Soft Guidance Dent HudBay, But There's Still Value Here

Monday, July 8, 2013

Seeking Alpha: HudBay Minerals Almost Washed Out ... And Looking Like A Bargain

The list of mining stocks doing well over the past year is quite short, and HudBay Minerals (HBM) isn't on it. Thumped by a large-scale move of investor funds out of mining and declines in commodity metal prices, HudBay has further worried investors with its upcoming capital needs, the possibility of a dividend cut, and more general product/cost issues.

On the other hand, tough times don't last but tough companies do. Very few mining companies are looking at the sort of production growth potential that HudBay has over the next three to five years. What's more, while I don't think investors can sleep on the risk that the bottomless pit that once was China's appetite for basic materials has, in fact, found a bottom (meaning that the "super-cycle" is over), no analyst is currently projecting a long-term copper price whereat HudBay can't make money.

The valuation process for mining companies is slippery and inexact. That said, even using relatively low multiples on EBITDA, low price inputs into a NAV calculation, and the company's tangible book value suggest that these shares are undervalued. Unless you believe HudBay will actively destroy value by staying in business, these shares look at least 30% undervalued and may in fact be worth 70% to 100% more than today's price.

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HudBay Minerals Almost Washed Out ... And Looking Like A Bargain