Investopedia: What's Happening To The Best Trades Of Our Lives?

Nobody is sounding the bells yet for the emerging markets, but a curious thing has happened on the road to "BRIC will make you rich!" So far this year, many of the most attractive emerging markets are not actually doing well at all. Ups and downs are par for the course with all investing, and especially so in emerging market investing, but it is interesting to step back and see how many of the most attractive long-term stories are working out today. 

Brazil - Rates Shimmying Upward
Just in time for Carnival, Brazil's central bank decided to hike rates by another 50 basis points, moving the benchmark rate to 11.75%. Just as it is often said that investors should not "fight the Fed," investors in Brazilian equities have had to swallow hard as Brazil's government tries to find the right path between inflation and growth.

Even though commodity prices, a major component of Brazil's economy, have been strong both under ground (copper, iron, and gold) and above ground (soybeans and other agricultural products), that has not helped the market so much. The iShares Brazil Index ETF (NYSE:EWZ) has lost almost 4% year-to-date as of this writing, and many riskier ETFs have had it worse. The Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:BRF) has dropped 8.6%, while the thinly-traded Global X Brazil Consumer (Nasdaq:BRAQ) and Global X Brazil Financial (Nasdaq:BRAF) have fallen 12% and 9% respectively. For those who think investing in Brazil is not quite risky enough, the ProShares Ultra Brazil (NYSE:UBR) are down 8.6%. Oddly enough, while rates keep climbing, the EGShares Brazil Infrastructure Fund (Nasdaq:BRXX) has only seen declines of about 1%.


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Want A Strong Bank? Think ICICI

After spending a lot of 2009 and 2010 rebounding from freak-out lows, American banks like Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) are choking and sputtering. Not only are investors wrapped up in the negative headlines about potentially huge mortgage documentation risks, but loan growth is stagnant and the U.S. is still over-banked.

On the flip-side, the picture for banks outside of the U.S. and Western Europe is quite a bit brighter. In India, strong credit growth and surprisingly strong credit quality is providing a healthy environment, and ICICI Bank (NYSE:IBN) is making hay while the sun shines.

The Quarter That Was
ICICI reported earnings for its fiscal second quarter that handily surpassed the analysts' targets. Bottom-line earnings rose 19% in the quarter, fueled by 8% growth in net interest income and a 40% drop in provisions. Growth was helped by margin expansion of 10 basis points, loan growth of 2%, and deposit growth of 13%, while a significant rise in expenses (10%) was a dampener. (For more, see The Bottom Line On Margins.)

Credit quality is getting better. As the 40% reduction in provisions might suggest, ICICI is feeling good about its balance sheet. Impaired loans were a bit more than 8% at the end of the quarter, continuing a multi-quarter sequential strength of improvement. As a percentage of loans, non-performing loans were 1.4% in the quarter on a net basis.

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