Seeking Alpha: Manitex Prioritizing The Right Things During The Downturn

I think it is fair to say that Manitex (NASDAQ:MNTX) was too ambitious and too aggressive when breakneck North American onshore energy expansion fueled an unsustainable demand for cranes. Management significant stretched the balance sheet in the interests of empire-building, expanding into non-core areas like trailers and liquid storage tanks. When the cycle turned, Manitex found itself with a lot of debt, not a lot demand, and questionable synergies between the units.

All of that can certainly explain why the stock has been hammered worse than other lifting equipment companies like Terex (NYSE:TEX), Manitowoc (NYSE:MTW), Manitou, and Palfinger since 2014, but it doesn't necessarily make the shares untouchable now for aggressive investors. Management has pivoted from a growth-by-acquisition model to more of a value-creation model, with a stronger focus now on cost control/reduction, cash flow generation, and sustainable growth in high-potential businesses like knuckle cranes and the ASV product line.

I'm not as bullish on a meaningful rebound in the North American energy market as I once was, but I don't think it will much worse and I think construction (residential, commercial, and civil) can be a driver for this business. I don't see Manitex struggling to pay its interest, and I do believe further debt reduction efforts can unlock some value. My current estimates call for long-term revenue growth in the mid single-digits and peak FCF margins in the mid-to-high single-digits, supporting a fair value of $7.50 that could go higher if/when energy really recovers and/or management shows that it can build its knuckle crane and ASV operations into disruptive players.

Read the full article here:
Manitex Prioritizing The Right Things During The Downturn

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh In A Value/Value Trap Puzzle

Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) is a frustrating company/stock for me in many respects. The valuation on the shares and the potential of a better-run business keeps it on my watch list, but I continue to be concerned about what I see as an overlooked erosion in the company's core Access Equipment business. Winning the JLTV contract should bring in a long run of profits and cash flow, but the benefits won't kick in for a while.

Oshkosh remains what it has long been to me - a potentially undervalued stock attached to an underperforming company. I can see how Oshkosh shares should trade above $40, but I simply don't have confidence in the business at this point and I have real questions about the prospects for long-term valuation creation.

Read more here:
Oshkosh In A Value/Value Trap Puzzle

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh Getting Squashed

I was nervous about Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) back in January, as I thought there wasn't enough upside in my base-case assumptions to offset the significant risk and uncertainty. As it turns out, construction and energy demand have been even weaker than expected at the start of the year, and there are signs and warnings from companies like Eaton (NYSE:ETN) and Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH) that overall mobile equipment demand is not looking very good.

Down almost 20% from the time of that January piece, the investment case for Oshkosh is still broadly what it was before - buy Oshkosh if you expect a sharper recovery in oil/gas and solid growth in construction equipment demand, coupled with Oshkosh winning a major defense vehicle award. While my fair value hasn't gone down too much (I had generally more bearish than average expectations earlier this year), I still have elevated concerns about this business and I think there are safer risk/reward trade-offs out there. All of that said, there's definitely room for self-improvement here and a defense vehicle win could conceivably add as much as $10 per share.


Read more here:
Oshkosh Getting Squashed

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh Leveraged To A U.S. Construction Recovery

Not much has changed in the past quarter for Oshkosh (OSK) and that's not necessarily a bad thing. The company's aerial work platform business is recovering, but Oshkosh and Terex (TEX) are still waiting on rental companies in North America to renew their fleets. The potential for activist-prompted moves is still here, and it increasingly sounds as though management is considering an acquisition. Oshkosh still looks undervalued on the basis of construction and commercial vehicle prospects, with defense offering a highly binary outcome later next year, but delays in a U.S. construction recovery remain as a meaningful risk factor.

Read more here:
Oshkosh Leveraged To A U.S. Construction Recovery

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh's Self-Improvement Efforts Moving The Needle

Couple improving conditions in the largest-end market and solid progress with internal self-improvement efforts, and you have Oshkosh (OSK) handily beating the Street's fiscal first quarter estimates and sitting close to a 52-week high. With the shares having doubled the return of the S&P 500 over the past year, it's hard to say that Oshkosh's performance has gone unnoticed, but if construction really is turning the corner and the company's MOVE plan stays on track, these shares should continue to beat the market.

Read the full article here:
Oshkosh's Self-Improvement Efforts Moving The Needle

Seeking Alpha: Manitou Getting Its House In Order

I wrote on Manitou (OTC:MAOIF) (MTU.PA) as a Top Idea back in September, thinking that the market was far too pessimistic on a company that had built strong market share in forklift trucks, telehandlers, and similar equipment through strong engineering and product design. What's more, I thought the company had the opportunity to benefit from improving market demand and drive improved margins with better manufacturing and supply chain efficiency.

The company has not only started logging some improved revenue and orders, but named a new CEO. I believe Michel Denis is the sort of operations-focused executive that the company needs right now, but he has yet to lay out his plans for Manitou. The shares are up about 20% since my initial writeup, but I continue to believe there is worthwhile upside in the stock.

Click this link for more:
Manitou Getting Its House In Order

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh Has The Margins; Can It Grow Revenue Enough?

It has been an interesting run for specialty vehicle manufacturer Oshkosh (OSK) over the last three or four years. The company was able to leverage its long expertise in tactical vehicles for the defense market into strong revenue and cash flow during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the sharp declines in defense demand, coupled with a weak market for construction-related and municipal vehicles, cut the shares down almost two-thirds between mid-2010 and the fall of 2011.

Oshkosh's struggles attracted the attention of Carl Icahn, but management successfully fended off his efforts by convincing shareholders that the company's MOVE strategy was the better plan for the company. I'd argue that the company's running tally of strong quarterly beats is a good argument that the MOVE strategy is a good one, and the market has rewarded the shares to the tune of a 70% gain over the past year. Looking ahead, though, the story is now evolving into one that less about margins and more about whether the company can log enough revenue growth in its non-defense businesses to keep the numbers moving forward.

Please read more here:
Oshkosh Has The Margins; Can It Grow Revenue Enough?

Seeking Alpha: Manitou Looks Like A Hidden Gem In France

France is probably not a country where most investors are going to think of searching for a quality industrial company, but Manitou (MAOIF.PK) (MTU.PA) just may be the exception. Although the company is heavily exposed to Europe and the shares aren't all that liquid even on the Paris exchange, the company's rough terrain handling and industrial material handling equipment could fuel years of above-average global growth.

This is definitely a riskier-than-average proposition. The stock is basically controlled by two families, sales to the U.S. and Asia are minor, and the company has yet to rebuild its margins in the wake of the global credit crunch. But if Manitou can return to free cash flow generation on par with Terex (TEX), Oshkosh (OSK), and CNH Global (CNH), these shares are set to rise more than 40%.

Please click the link for more:
Manitou Looks Like A Hidden Gem In France

Seeking Alpha: Manitex Still Delivering Growth Investors Can Look Up To

About six months ago, I profiled an up-and-coming small-cap heavy equipment company that I thought had above-average potential. Since that report, Manitex (MNTX) has moved up about 30% and significantly outperformed rivals like Terex (TEX), Manitowoc (MTW) and Manitou, not to mention the S&P 500. Although I do have some concerns about the slowdown in the energy sector and the company's ability to generate consistent long-term operating and cash flow leverage, I believe this stock remains sufficiently undervalued to be a good buy today.

Please continue here:
Manitex Still Delivering Growth Investors Can Look Up To

Seeking Alpha: Manitex: Are These The Early Days Of An Exciting Industrial Equipment Story?

Investors are usually wise to be cautious about buying into growth stories predicated on mergers and acquisitions, but Manitex (MNTX) looks like a different sort of story, and one that may end well for patient investors. Eschewing more commoditized areas of the material handling market, Manitex has built a name for itself in heavy lift boom trucks, rough terrain cranes, and rough terrain forklifts, and is now looking to the fast-growing intermodal market as another potential avenue for growth.

While the company has plenty yet to prove with respect to margins and return on capital, the risk-reward balance here seems intriguing for more aggressive investors. I believe Manitex can not only drive improved operating margins from greater fixed asset turnover and utilization, but also continue to execute selective one-off deals in attractive markets while continuing to develop products tailored for markets with specialized needs. In short, I see this as both a revenue growth and margin improvement that the market presently undervalues (or may not even be aware of).

Please read more here:
Manitex: Are These The Early Days Of An Exciting Industrial Equipment Story?