Seeking Alpha: Software AG - All The Buzz, But Can It Deliver The Honey?

If you're a software company these days, you pretty much have to be positioned for Big Data, Cloud, Mobile, and Social/Collaboration to get investor attention. The extent to which these are real and meaningful concepts or just buzzwords is a topic for another day, but the point stands that Software AG (STWRY.PK) has gone out of its way to make sure you know it is targeting these markets.

The question is whether or not the company can deliver. Software AG is a veteran company, but its recent record of in-house development isn't all that impressive and suggests promised growth may have to come from the checkbook (M&A). What's more, it's an open question as to whether the company can deliver sustained profitable growth. If things work out well, this stock could trade more than 30% above today's level, but execution risk is a serious issue with this stock.

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Software AG - All The Buzz, But Can It Deliver The Honey?

Investopedia: Progress Software Showing Signs Of Life In A Tough Market

More than a year into large-scale efforts to reshape the organization, Progress Software (Nasdaq:PRGS) is hinting that its transition toward faster-growing markets could pay off. The company still has much to prove, and I would not ignore the risk of competition from large, entrenched rivals like IBM (NYSE:IBM), Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL), and Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), nor smaller rivals like TIBCO (Nasdaq: TIBX) and Software AG (Nasdaq:STWRY). At the same time, the company's significant cash balance, cash generating capabilities, and large maintenance revenue base all provide more than the normal margin of breathing room to execute this transformation.

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Investopedia: TIBCO Stabilizes, But Needs Growth

Looking at the results this week from Red Hat (NYSE:RHT), Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL), and TIBCO (Nasdaq:TIBX), it's pretty clear that there hasn't been a big re-acceleration in the market and conditions are still pretty difficult. That's not too surprising, really, but it does create uncertainty for these stocks in what is already a nervous market. I continue to like TIBCO, but the company definitely needs to start improving its sales and marketing strategy and execution. While the the shares do seem undervalued today, the valuation already incorporates a re-acceleration of growth and the company had best start delivering in the next year, or the stock will definitely suffer.

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