Showing posts with label Qualcomm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Qualcomm. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Qorvo Still Not Getting Its Due

When I last wrote about Qorvo (QRVO) in early January, I thought the shares of this chip company were undervalued, but I thought the near-term outlook was clouded by the possibility of another guidance cut (which happened with fiscal Q3 earnings in February) and a lingering perception of Qorvo as a “problem child” with respect to overreliance on mobile end-markets and problematic gross margins. To that latter point, the shares have continued to consistently lag the SOX since that last article, though they’re up about 20%.

Generating alpha by investing in laggards is a tough way to go, but it is not without its rewards. Once a company’s perception changes, the rerating can be quick and significant. While Qorvo seems to have lost content with Apple (AAPL) (back to Broadcom (AVGO), presumably), I think the IDP segment is under-appreciated, and I likewise think the gains with non-Apple vendors are underappreciated for their margin benefits. It doesn’t take heroic assumptions to get a high $80’s fair value, but this is a stock that has tested investor patience for some time and we may not be out of the woods yet with this sector correction.

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Qorvo Still Not Getting Its Due

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Broadcom Not Exactly Back To Square One

The market hasn’t been too accommodating to Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) of late. Once a darling (and still well-regarded by many analysts and investors), the shares have been underperforming on a host of issues including worries about the company’s M&A policies (and its reliance on M&A), competitor actions, and the overall health of the semiconductor space.

I really have no operational concerns about Broadcom, and I think the company’s well-balanced mix will generate above-average growth in both the short term and long term. The prospect for value-adding M&A is more uncertain, though returning cash to shareholders is not a bad back-up plan. Based on mid-to-high single-digit long-term growth potential and margins in the 40%’s, I believe Broadcom shares are meaningfully undervalued now, but it will likely take some time for the dust to settle and for investors to move past worries about limitations on future M&A.

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Broadcom Not Exactly Back To Square One

Sunday, August 20, 2017

The Pieces Are In Place For Ongoing Success At Broadcom

It's hard to complain about Broadcom's (AVGO) performance, as this top-tier semiconductor company has seen its shares rise almost 45% since my last update in late 2016. While a few stocks have done better (NVIDIA (NVDA) certainly springs to mind), Avago has by and large doubled the returns of peers like Analog Devices (ADI), Cavium (CAVM), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Xilinx (XLNX). Better still, this is not just a multiple inflation story, as Avago has continued to deliver beat-and-raise performances that support confidence in the ongoing growth potential in areas like handsets and routing/switching.

I don't believe Broadcom is strikingly cheap, but then I wouldn't expect such a large, well-known, well-followed, and well-liked company to be trading at a substantial discount. I do believe ongoing content growth at Apple (AAPL), growth of products like Tomahawk and Jericho in the datacenter, and less appreciated opportunities like its custom ASIC business can continue to support story, and it's not a bad candidate if you find yourself in a “gotta buy something” frame of mind. After all, how often do you find a company that generates more than 60% of its revenue from products where it has 60% or better market share, growth rates above the underlying end-markets, and excellent margins?

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The Pieces Are In Place For Ongoing Success At Broadcom

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Strong Execution On IoT Is Taking Silicon Labs To A New Level

Chip company Silicon Labs (NASDAQ:SLAB) was already doing pretty well with its Internet of Things (or IoT) business back in the summer of 2016, but I underestimated the company's ability to continue to leverage that driver. As IoT is becoming an increasingly real driver, it is having a solidly positive influence on Silicon Labs' performance, and the shares are now about 40% higher than when I last wrote on the company.

Silicon Labs isn't going to have the IoT opportunity all to itself; Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) (through NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI)), Microchip (NASDAQ:MCHP), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) among others are going to be competing fiercely in this growing market. Silicon Labs' strong positioning across the range of connectivity options and in mesh networking are important drivers, but other rivals have their own areas of strength in MCUs, security, sensing, and so on. What's more, the valuation is now considerably more demanding, and with it come much higher expectations for the lead IoT and Infrastructure businesses.

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Strong Execution On IoT Is Taking Silicon Labs To A New Level

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Qualcomm Seems Frustratingly Reactive

A little over a year ago, I thought Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) valuation was potentially interesting, but I couldn't really recommend the shares due to margin erosion and what I saw as a lack of management initiative to make meaningful changes to grow the business. The shares are basically flat since then, due in part to ongoing worries about market share, pricing, and volume in handsets, as well as a lack of movement on the M&A front.

Really very little has changed regarding my outlook and feelings about Qualcomm. I think management's targets and goals for growth outside of handsets are exceedingly ambitious, and I think the royalty issues could linger on as a perpetual concern. I do find the prospect of major M&A to be interesting (most likely NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI)), though I stand by my comment last year that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) would have been a better long-term idea. While there is some value here, quite a bit of skepticism, and opportunities to do better, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) offers similar value and what I believe is a higher-quality business and management team.

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Qualcomm Seems Frustratingly Reactive

Execution And Opportunity Continue To Drive Broadcom

Broadcom's (NASDAQ:AVGO) recent stock market performance hasn't been all that special. Since my last update on this leading chip company, the shares have done a little better than the NASDAQ, but have lagged the SOX pretty meaningfully, not to mention lagging other notables like Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

I'm not worried. Sure, as a Broadcom shareholder I'd love to see the stock performing better, but the company's financial reports have been positive and I believe there are strong tailwinds for both the wireless and wired businesses. Uncertainty around M&A is a risk factor, as are general market/economic conditions and competition, but I believe Broadcom has the quality to be a long-term holding and the valuation today isn't bad.

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Execution And Opportunity Continue To Drive Broadcom

Monday, October 10, 2016

Qorvo Still A Few Ducks Short Of A Nice Row

For a chip company like Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), there's an ongoing need to pair attractive revenue growth with strong margins as both loom large in chip stock valuation. Recently Qorvo has done well shoring up the prospects for the first half, as content wins with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and ongoing share growth with Chinese handset makers are making a good case for mobile revenue growth. What's more, wireless infrastructure seems to be rebounding nicely off a recent bottom.

But Qorvo still doesn't have all of its ducks in a row. Gross margin has disappointed recently and management's guidance was not particularly encouraging - dredging up past margin concerns and limited the enthusiasm over share-driven revenue growth. Healthy margins can justify a fair value in the $60s today, but I don't consider management execution to be a given here like I do with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), and there are risks that rivals like Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) will ultimately squeeze a little harder in the future.

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Qorvo Still A Few Ducks Short Of A Nice Row

Friday, July 29, 2016

Lofty Expectations Could Be CEVA's Biggest Threat

It hasn't always been easy for CEVA (NASDAQ:CEVA). While the quality of this IP licensor's DSP technology has never been seriously questioned, the fact remains that Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is a major competitive force in mobile baseband, and CEVA has seen significant volatility in recent years in its reported results as mobile partners have come under pressure or exited the industry entirely. Sentiment has definitely shifted, though, as the Street has come around to the significant revenue growth and margin leverage potential as the company's licensees gain share with much more lucrative LTE products and as the IoT market matures.

With the shares up about 75% over the past year, I would argue CEVA's valuation now incorporates a lot of the potential that was ignored just a year ago. A baked-in 16% long-term FCF growth rate isn't ridiculous or impossible, but it isn't what I would call "undemanding".

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Lofty Expectations Could Be CEVA's Biggest Threat

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Seeking Alpha: Excellence Rewarded With Avago

I've been pretty bullish on both Avago and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) over the years and now that the merger is completed, nothing about this combination has really changed my mind. If anything, watching Avago's management more closely has led me to a greater appreciation of how they see the semiconductor world differently than most and how that informs their management choices. At an overly simplified level, this isn't a company that believes that success will come from pursuing growth for its own sake, but rather that strong margins generated by businesses with meaningful competitive advantages is the real key.

I continue to believe that fair value for the new Broadcom is in the neighborhood of $170, but that there could be some upside to the long-term underlying growth rate of around 5%. As a diversified chip company with tremendous scale and 40%-plus market share in multiple markets, I think Broadcom can still be thought of as a core tech holding, but it may be better to try to add shares when the enthusiasm cools a bit.

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Excellence Rewarded With Avago

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Seeking Alpha: Qorvo Still Tied To Apple's Fortunes, And Now Intel's As Well?

Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) isn't quite a pure-play on high-performance RF chips in handsets, as the company's Infrastructure and Defense Products (or IDP) kicks in about 20% of the company's revenue, but it is close. That didn't work in the company's favor in 2015, as a slowing Chinese smartphone market and issues with top customer Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (more than 40% of revenue) led to multiple reductions in guidance and a substantial reduction in the share price - the stock is down close to 40% over the past year and down a similar amount since my last article on the company. Even allowing that many chip companies that depend upon the smartphone space have had their struggles (including Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Cirrus (NASDAQ:CRUS)), Qorvo has stood out as a weak performer.

Valuation seems tricky here. On the positive side, it looks as though the company has a meaningful opportunity to benefit from Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) participation in the Apple iPhone 7, as Qorvo could generate meaningfully higher content in those phones, mid single-digit revenue growth after FY2016 would seem to support a fair value above $60, and the company has good share in segments like PA modules and switches. On the other hand, Skyworks and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are tough rivals, the company needs to do better outside of Apple, and the Intel-related benefits are hardly certain.

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Qorvo Still Tied To Apple's Fortunes, And Now Intel's As Well?

Monday, December 21, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Decision Time With Broadcom ... And Maybe With The Larger Sector

As the transaction with Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) moves forward, Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) investors have to make their decision on what to do with their shares. While shareholders may not ultimately get exactly what they want (the deal is subject to proration), they have the option to take cash, regular shares, or special restricted shares.

Investors are also looking at a changing semiconductor landscape. Barring any additional announcements before year-end, 2015 has already seen more than 25% of U.S. publicly-listed semiconductor stocks acquired or underway with being acquired. Given the rising cost of chip development, the low cost of debt and high cash balances at chip companies, and the opportunity to drive synergies, there may be more decisions like the Broadcom situation coming for investors.

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Decision Time With Broadcom ... And Maybe With The Larger Sector

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Seeking Alpha: How Do You Solve A Problem Like Qualcomm?

Referencing a 56-year old song for the title of an article about a tech company is admittedly bizarre, but then so too is Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) situation. The acknowledged leader in handset baseband and app processors, the stock is down about 25% over the past year, as weaker handset sales momentum and weaker margins have really started to bite hard.

Qualcomm is in the enviable situation of having a pretty darn good business in hand, as well as ample cash (and cash flow) to fund complementary or expansionary M&A. The question is whether the company has the courage (and/or vision) to risk the short-term wrath of investors in order to improve the long-term outlook. Although the company's valuation does stand out in an otherwise expensive crowd, I'm not so proud that I won't admit that I really don't know what to do about the shares.

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How Do You Solve A Problem Like Qualcomm?

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Unable To Find A Foothold, Marvell Keeps Sliding

One of the things I notice in the bullish arguments for Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) is that there's a lot of talk about the company's "strong IP" and the likelihood that an appeals court will overturn a $1 billion-plus patent judgment against the company. The trouble with that is that Marvell hasn't given anybody particularly strong reasons lately to believe that they can translate IP into sustainable market share and the patent judgment reversal (if that indeed happens) is a one-time event.

As is, it's hard to find a strong argument to buy and hold Marvell for its turnaround qualities. The storage business seems to be incapable of supporting sustained growth, and I think the company's Quixotic quest to remain a player in mobile is bleeding away value. Last and not least, I see no particular signs that networking chip companies like Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) and Cavium (NASDAQ:CAVM) are, or should be, worried about Marvell's efforts in this market.

I do believe that ditching the mobile business could add $1.50/share in value relatively quickly and a substantial reduction in the patent award could add another $2/share. Those two events would be worth around a 20% return, but neither are certain. What's more, absent a better vision from management regarding what Marvell does (and does not) actually do well, it's hard to regard this as more than a trading candidate.

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Unable To Find A Foothold, Marvell Keeps Sliding

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play

While it has not kept pace with Cavium (NASDAQ:CAVM) or Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) over the past year, Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) has still made a good showing with nearly 50% increase in the value of its stock price (considerably better than rivals like Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM)). Better still for today's shareholders, the company has not gone as far as it can with its new focus on sustainable growth and lean operations.

The murky outlook for connectivity isn't going to resolve soon, as it's still unclear if growth in IoT applications like wearables and home automation will offset all but inevitable share loss in mobile handsets. On the other hand, Broadcom's opportunities in the networking space may yet be underestimated, particularly if new product introductions can coax more business out of Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO). With a fair value in the mid-$40's to low-$50's, Broadcom isn't a striking bargain but still offers enough upside to be worth buying and/or holding.

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Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Broadcom Staying On-Script And Still Undervalued

Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) is certainly better loved by the Street now that it put its money-losing baseband efforts in the past, publicly declaimed "growth for growth's sake" M&A, and refocused on sustainable profitability. Now the question is whether management can strike that tricky balance between profit margins and revenue growth that it will take to maintain investor enthusiasm.

I continue to like the company's prospects in this regard. I don't expect the connectivity business to fall off as fast as feared, and I think the company's offerings in PON, DSL, and set-top boxes have more to offer than some seem to believe. Network virtualization should contribute to good growth prospects in the infrastructure business and opportunities like Internet-of-Things (or IOT), wireless charging, and auto networking should offer some upside.

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Broadcom Staying On-Script And Still Undervalued

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom

Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) has had to learn some hard lessons about growth for growth's sake. Chasing revenue growth for its own sake led the company to two sizable ill-fated (and overpriced) acquisitions, not to mention the fruitless investment of substantial monetary resources into the uncompetitive broadband business.

Chastened by its failures, Broadcom management has retrenched around its established strengths and reprioritized profitable growth. Lost, or at least obscured, in the fuss over baseband and the lingering concerns about wireless connectivity is a very strong business in switching and broadband, not to mention upside from IoT-oriented connectivity products. Broadcom isn't obviously cheap from a FCF perspective, but if Broadcom can deliver the margin improvements its management projects and if the company can stick to a Texas Instruments-like (NASDAQ:TXN) transformation, there could be long-term upside beyond $50.

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Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom

Thursday, July 24, 2014

The Motley Fool: With Baseband Finished, Higher-Margin Broadcom Looks for New Drivers

Broadcom's (NASDAQ: BRCM  ) long, frustrating dalliance with baseband wireless is now at an end, with the company winding down the business after investing hundreds of millions of dollars (if not billions) over the years, but failing to find a buyer. Broadcom remains a strong player in network infrastructure and broadband, and perhaps an underrated player in the emerging "Internet of Things" market, but investors are right to question how mobile connectivity will fare in the coming years, as well as whether management may fritter away cash on further value-eroding deals.

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With Baseband Finished, Higher-Margin Broadcom Looks for New Drivers


Thursday, June 19, 2014

Seeking Alpha: RF Micro Devices Near A Major Transformation

No company ever announces a merger/acquisition and tells its shareholders that they expect to waste their money and produce no long-term benefits from the transaction. But even after adjusting for hope and optimism, I think the logic of the RF Micro Devices (RFMD) - TriQuint (TQNT) merger holds up. Together, the two companies should be able to achieve meaningful operating cost synergies while offering a comprehensive line of RF products for the mobile market and emerging Internet of Things market.

In terms of value, though, I think the market has the transaction pretty well figured out. There is upside if the two companies can quickly generate more than $125 million in cost synergies, but $10 to $11 looks about right for RF Micro Devices today and likewise $16.50 to $18 for TriQuint.

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RF Micro Devices Near A Major Transformation

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Marvell Moving On Mobile

In the relatively short time since I last wrote on Marvell Technology (MRVL), the company's shares have done all right - rising about 3% and keeping pace with the SOX Index while modestly outperforming Qualcomm (QCOM) and Broadcom (BRCM). I continue to have my concerns about the company's long-term positioning in mobile/wireless, but the shares don't seem all that expensive in a semiconductor sector that doesn't have too many bargains. What's more, if the company gets a few breaks going its way (including holding off rivals like MediaTek and Spreadtrum in China), there could be some worthwhile upside to my assumptions.

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Marvell Moving On Mobile

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Marvell Shares May Not Be Done Yet

The last few months have been kind to many chip stocks, with Maxim (MXIM), Marvell (MRVL), and Nvidia (NVDA) all logging double-digit returns. Marvell's run actually goes quite a bit further back, as the shares have more than doubled from their late 2012 lows. As Marvell has grown share in the hard drive controller space and announced LTE wins in China, investors have returned to the shares despite worries about a looming patent infringement award and the prospects of competing with Qualcomm (QCOM).

The sell-side seems to be getting more cautious about suppliers to the high-end smartphone market, but that's not really Marvell's core market. Although I own and prefer Broadcom (BRCM), Marvell may be undervalued enough to be worth a closer look even after this long run. Most chip stocks are bought to be sold, though, so investors shouldn't assume that this is a buy-and-forget opportunity.

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Marvell Shares May Not Be Done Yet