Seeking Alpha: It's Getting Harder To Give Axiall The Benefit Of The Doubt

At some point a company's problems cease to be cyclical and start looking increasingly structural. I'm getting close to that point with Axiall (NYSE:AXLL). Six consecutive earnings misses may say more about the analysts following the stock than the quality of the company, but management's own missteps and changes in the chloralkali space have more concerned about the prospects for this company. I do still believe that the company can leverage positives like an improving U.S. construction market (whenever that arrives...) and increasing shale gas production, but I'm not convinced that the value is so compelling as to be worth the risk anymore.

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It's Getting Harder To Give Axiall The Benefit Of The Doubt

Seeking Alpha: Still Time To Think About Going All-In On Axiall

Even with my dedication to the philosophy of "enlightened torpor" with respect to changing up my portfolio, there are times where it's worthwhile to consider secular trades or themes. While many stocks have already enjoyed a pretty good run on the back of improving expectations for the U.S. housing market, there are still a few ideas left that hold potential.

One of those ideas to consider is Axiall (AXLL) - the new chlor-alkali giant that has emerged from the combination of Georgia Gulf and PPG's (PPG) commodity chemical business. Investors and analysts wigged out in response to higher-than-expected ethylene prices in the first quarter, but the company's outsized exposure to U.S. housing, potential PVC margins, and synergy possibilities make this a name still worthy of consideration. As it is a commodity chemical, though, investors should realize that this is a consummate example of a stock that is bought to be sold - this is not a stock I'd imagine many investors would want to hold for a decade at a time.

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Still Time To Think About Going All-In On Axiall