Seeking Alpha: Tidewater Hoping To Weather The Downturn

If a rising tide is suppose to lift all boats, an uncommonly weak tide carries the risk of leaving some high and dry. That might be a little melodramatic with respect to Tidewater (NYSE:TDW), but I do believe this global leader in marine supply and support vessels for the energy industry is looking at a multiyear period of lean times.

Tidewater has spent a lot of time, energy, and money modernizing its fleet, but utilization rates and dayrates are likely to plunge over the next couple of years as rig counts dive and offshore E&P companies flee the market. While I think Tidewater has the financial wherewithal to make it through to the other side, I'm not as keen on this company as a way to play this trough and the eventual recovery. The shares do seem undervalued on the premise that this is a company that can return to profitability eventually, and companies like this can see earnings rebound sharply from the bottom, but this is most likely a multiyear recovery story.

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Tidewater Hoping To Weather The Downturn

Seeking Alpha: Gulfmark Swamped By Pessimism

Quite a bit has changed for Gulfmark Offshore (NYSE:GLF) in the year since I last wrote about the shares. Not only did the hoped-for increase in drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico not materialize, but the sharp decline in oil prices has reduced activity across all of Gulfmark's operating regions. Making matters worse, more boats have come into service and operators have accepted big declines in dayrates (particularly in the spot market) to keep their boats working.

There are a lot of ways to frame the damage done to Gulfmark shares. The stock price is down two-thirds from a year ago and the average sell-side price target has fallen by about 70%. Just in the past few months, sell-side analysts have cut their EBTIDA estimates for 2015 and 2016 by as much as 75% in many cases.

With shares trading at less than half their tangible book value, it's tempting to ask whether the Street has gone overboard. Gulfmark does have a modern fleet that can serve major drillers like Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and offshore drilling will eventually recover. The problem is that situations like this can get a lot worse before they get better. Gulfmark may manage to go through the bottom of the cycle without posting negative free cash flow, but it will likely be a close call and it could take a while for dayrates to recover. That said, if you want to play an aggressive contrarian view that pessimism on offshore energy activity has gone too far, this would be a name to consider.

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Gulfmark Swamped By Pessimism

Seeking Alpha: Oceaneering Seems A Little Underloved

This hasn't been a fun stretch for offshore energy service companies. Land-oriented service providers like Helmerich & Payne (HP) and Halliburton (HAL) have performed nicely so far this year, but the offshore companies like Oceaneering (OII), Tidewater (TDW), and Helix (HLX) have been left behind on worries that actual activity is going to underwhelm as large energy companies pay much greater attention to costs and free cash flow generation.

I think the details matter. I would be more nervous about owning shares in companies heavily leveraged to drilling activity and those dependent upon Brazil for a large share of revenue. I also have much less interest in the offshore construction and seismic spaces as a whole. But in the case of Oceaneering, I believe the Street is overlooking what should be a profitable multiyear opportunity in drilling support and vessel support.

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Oceaneering Seems A Little Underloved

Seeking Alpha: GulfMark Looking At Short-Term Worries And Long-Term Opportunities

GulfMark Offshore (GLF) has a high-quality, high-spec modern marine vessel fleet, but investors presently seem more concerned about the risks of delays in new rig deployments in the Gulf of Mexico than the opportunities offered by higher utilization and dayrates in the North Sea and GoM in the coming years. GulfMark isn't hands down a screaming bargain today, but I believe the current market conditions support a bullish outlook for profit and cash flow generation over the next couple of years.

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GulfMark Looking At Short-Term Worries And Long-Term Opportunities

Seeking Alpha: After A Rough Patch, Tidewater Looks A Lot More Interesting

Back in October Tidewater (TDW) was one of the relatively few energy service companies that looked overvalued to me. While I liked the company's strong position in offshore and deepwater supply vessels, I just didn't think that paying such a high multiple was reasonable given risks in the North Sea and Angola, not to mention potential delays in floater and jackup deliveries.

As it turns out, the shares declined more than 20% since that piece, with the stock taking a big hit on disappointing third quarter results. I don't see the results as a sign of any particular operating deficiency, though, and I believe the reset in valuation and expectations makes this a much more interesting name to consider today.

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After A Rough Patch, Tidewater Looks A Lot More Interesting

Seeking Alpha: Is There A Gulf In Gulfmark's Valuation?

Activity in the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico is heating up, and that's a good thing for Gulfmark Offshore (GLF) as it gets about 85% of its revenue from those regions. Gulfmark may not be the biggest fish in the marine vessel sea, but it has a solid position in the high-spec market for vessels in the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico, where utilization and dayrates have been picking up and where expectations call for several years of double-digit growth in rigs.

Gulfmark has outpaced Tidewater (TDW) in the stock market over the last year, but may yet still offer more upside with its newbuild and upgrade programs. I'm giving Gulfmark some premium to its historical multiple, as I believe those newbuilds are going to add value and Southeast Asian operations have bottomed, and doing so suggests double-digit undervaluation for the year to come.

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Is There A Gulf In Gulfmark's Valuation?

Seeking Alpha: Tidewater Already Riding High On Offshore Expectations

Having written about a few energy services companies over the past week or two that appear to be undervalued, it was a little startling to run the numbers on Tidewater (TDW) and find a services company that actually may be overpriced. Tidewater has a lot of positive things going for it, including a recently remodernized fleet, operating exposure to almost every major offshore market, and extensive expected rig deployments in the coming years. Even so, investors have to be prepared to use a higher-than-average multiple (or a higher expected level of EBITDA) to generate a target price that makes these shares look cheap today.

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Tidewater Already Riding High On Offshore Expectations

Investopedia: Improving Offshore Activity Bodes Well For Tidewater

The offshore energy market is tough enough in normal times, or whatever passes for normal. Making matters even more challenging for Tidewater (NYSE:TDW) have been the uncertain fate of the company's Sonatide JV, the need to refresh the fleet, and the fractured state of the market in which many small players will cut prices to gain business. While the service and supply side of offshore energy will probably always lag drilling, in terms of investor interest, Tidewater could nevertheless be worth further investigation as offshore activity picks up.

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Judge Tosses Drilling Moratorium

A Federal District Judge in Louisiana has just ruled against the administration, overturning the government's 6-month ban on drilling in U.S. waters. Assuming it holds up on appeal (and the government has already said that it will appeal), it will once again be legal to drill in U.S. deepwater areas, and those 33 exploratory projects in the Gulf that were suspended by the ban can now restart.

I don't think it surprises anybody that there has been opposition to the ban, including industry representatives like Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX).

Frankly, I'm with the drillers on this one. Locking things down after a rare disaster is an overreaction that plays well on TV and with the environmental groups, but doesn't score high on common sense. The reality is that drilling was going to recommence whether people liked it or not; the economic demands for ongoing offshore drilling are just too powerful to ignore.

What's more, it seems more and more certain that the rig disaster and oil spill were a product of a thankfully rare combination of reckless operation, very challenging geology, and ill-maintained equipment. Assuming that other drillers are going to be checking their blowout preventers VERY carefully and insisting upon conservative practices for cementing, the risk of another accident is very low.

After all, name the last major oil rig accident that resulted in an oil spill before the BP (NYSE: BP) Macando/Deepwater Horizon accident. Go ahead ... take your time ... I'll wait.

Clearly this could be good news for a whole host of Gulf and deepwater operators. Drillers like Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Noble (NYSE: NE), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), and Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) should benefit, as well as a whole host of service providers like Cal-Dive (NYSE: DVR), Oceaneering (NYSE: OII), Tidewater (NYSE: TDW), and equipment companies like Cameron  (NYSE: CAM) and National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV).

The initial reaction hasn't been all that strong, though, as the Oil Equipment ETF (NYSE: IEZ) is down more than 1.5% as of this writing. If nothing else, this ruling could add even more pressure and uncertainty to situation as the administration may go to greater lengths to enforce its wishes on the industry. After all, you certainly don't make someone more friendly to your cause by suing them.

All in all, this ruling is a minor bit of positive news for a beaten-up sector, but it's only one round in a long battle. There are plenty of long-term reasons to stay positive on drilling and the energy sector, but also a lot of near-term noise and volatility. That's a great recipe for folks with the nerves and stamina to buy at a low price and just ride out any turbulence, but investors who find themselves shaken up when they see a holding down 10% or more from where they bought it should probably stay on the sideline for now.