Merck KGaA Crashes Into The Versum-Entegris Tie-Up

I liked both Versum (VSM) and Entegris (ENTG) in the fall of 2018, Entegris a little moreso, on the idea that the market was overreacting to the correction cycle in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment and that underlying chip production (a key driver for Versum) was unlikely to be impacted as much as seemed to be reflected in the prices. When Versum and Entegris announced their intent to merge in late January, I thought it made a lot of sense and would create a stronger new company, led by management team (Entegris) with a lot of experience in M&A integration.

Now Merck KGaA (OTCPK:MKKGY) has pushed itself into the conversation, making an unsolicited all-cash offer that is well above the upfront value offered by the Entegris deal. Although I can see why some shareholders may prefer a stock-for-stock bid and I believe there are some regulatory risks to the Merck KGaA offer, it’s hard to argue with an all-cash offer that is well above what Versum shareholders were otherwise expecting.

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Merck KGaA Crashes Into The Versum-Entegris Tie-Up

Versum Leveraged To Chip Volume Growth And Innovation

On the whole, I like pick-and-shovel plays and Versum Materials (VSM) is a good example in the chip space, as this producer of specialty chemicals, gases, and other materials is heavily leveraged to ongoing growth in chip production volume and ever-increasing chip design complexity. Although Versum has some modest exposure to equipment and some volume risk from improving yields, the general outlook for Versum is healthy as a critical supplier to fabs.

Relative to Entegris (ENTG), though, I’m not quite as interested in the value proposition offered by these shares. I do think Versum is modestly undervalued, and it’s more of a play on direct chemical/material demand, but expectations might still be a little high for 2019 and I still see ongoing risk of the market being indiscriminate in selling off semiconductor-related names if (“when”, in my view) the outlook for equipment demand in 2019 worsens.

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Versum Leveraged To Chip Volume Growth And Innovation

Entegris Not Getting Its Due For A Differentiated Exposure To Semiconductor Markets

Electrochemical, filtration, and material handling company Entegris (ENTG) has had a rough year, as has competitor/peer Versum Materials (VSM), though investors in semiconductor equipment stocks like AEIS (AEIS) and VAT (OTCPK:VACNY) may not exactly be overflowing with sympathy (they've had it worse). Although Entegris is much more leveraged to wafer starts than equipment orders, investors seem to have bailed out ahead of this memory-led decline in equipment orders.

Although Entegris has some exposure to equipment trends and wafer starts may not be so strong next year, I think these shares are starting to look pretty interesting. Margins should continue to head higher (driving a better EV/revenue multiple), and I see meaningful room for FCF margin expansion as Entegris leverages ongoing growth in chip production and ever-increasing chip complexity. My biggest concern is perceptual, with the risk that investors look at the worsening outlook for equipment and high lead times and just bail on all things chip-related.

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Entegris Not Getting Its Due For A Differentiated Exposure To Semiconductor Markets