Seeking Alpha: AXA Needs To Unlock Growth To Achieve A Higher Share Price

French insurance giant AXA (OTCQX:AXAHY) has been doing what it said it would, but investors have been slow to reward the company for its progress. The shares are down about 3% from my last update, which is better than the performance of peers like Generali (OTC:ARZGF), Aviva (NYSE:AV), and Zurich (OTCQX:ZURVY), and a little worse than Allianz (OTCQX:AZSEY), but investors shouldn't shoot for "no worse than the others" with their investments.

Management has done a good job of reducing expenses and boosting cash flow, and the company's relatively solid Solvency II score is encouraging for further capital distributions to shareholders. On the other hand, high-growth markets like Turkey haven't delivered the hoped-for growth, P&C premium growth has proven challenging, and inflows to both the life and asset management businesses aren't as strong as they need to be.

A key consideration, then, is whether AXA can take the steps necessary to accelerate bottom line growth from the 2% to 3% rate seen in 2015. Today's price is fair if the 10-year adjusted earnings growth averages around 3%. A growth rate of 4% bumps the fair value to $26.50 and a little over 5% a year in adjusted earnings growth supports a target close to $29.50. I believe 5% is attainable, but far from certain, so this isn't a money-for-nothing sort of investment prospect.

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AXA Needs To Unlock Growth To Achieve A Higher Share Price

Seeking Alpha: W.R. Berkley Continues To Navigate Tricky Waters

I can't say that I feel like I've missed out on much since thinking W.R. Berkley (NYSE:WRB) didn't look like a terrific bargain back in May of 2015. While the shares did rise close to 20% from that article at one point on takeover speculation, the net movement of 3% is more in keeping with what I'd expected given the challenging conditions in the commercial P&C market and W.R. Berkley's already-healthy valuation.

My basic sentiment on W.R. Berkley today is "same as it ever was." The company has done a very good job of finding growth in a challenging market, helped by niche/specialty market focus, good underwriting, and its investment portfolio. I still believe that W.R. Berkley can generate good earnings growth over the next five years, but the stock looks like it is already priced for that sort of performance.

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W.R. Berkley Continues To Navigate Tricky Waters

Seeking Alpha: Allianz Less Robust On Growth, But Loaded On Quality

A year ago, I thought the shares of German insurance giant Allianz (OTCQX:AZSEY) (ALV.XE) were about 10% undervalued. The local shares have risen about 13% since that piece, but the stronger dollar has pushed that local return to a nearly 10% loss for the ADRs, and AXA (OTCQX:AXAHY), Aviva (NYSE:AV), and MetLife (NYSE:MET) have all done better for U.S. investors.

Absent a possible reversal in exchange rates, I'm not as bullish on Allianz at this point. Persistent low interest rates have hurt the profitability of the life insurance business and the P&C business may be challenged by the question of how to surpass already excellent results. I still like this company, and I've actually increased my fair value estimate on a constant currency basis, but it's harder to make a call that this is a must own until/unless rates turn up.

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Allianz Less Robust On Growth, But Loaded On Quality

Seeking Alpha: Can Argo Group Self-Improve Enough?

I try to spend most of my investment research time on companies that I believe are well-run, or at least run better than the Street believes, but I can't deny that there can be significant rewards from investing in inferior companies in the process of getting better. That brings me to Argo Group (AGII). Argo has just not been a particularly good specialty insurance company, as its combined ratio and underwriting profitability have lagged its peer group for most of the past decade.

Management is trying to fix the situation, and with three straight quarters of underwriting profitability there may be some reasons for hope. The Street certainly thinks so, as the shares are up more than 30% over the past year. I do have my doubts as to whether management can hit the goal of 10% returns on equity, but the shares don't really seem overpriced today and there should be further upside if these self-improvement efforts bear more fruit.

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Can Argo Group Self-Improve Enough?