2016 Performace

Apologies for being so late to post this, but regular readers know how things are...

My performance for 2015 was okay, and given all of the other things going on in my life I'll look at it as a decent year.

Portfolio A: +8%
Portfolio B: -10.5%
S&P 500: +1.38%

Nasdaq: +5.73%
Russell 3000: +0.48%

Performance - A Lousy, Mixed Up, No Good Year

Last year was a lousy year for a lousy reason … and that reason is part of why it took me almost four weeks into this month to get this post written. My wife/partner of 22 years was diagnosed with advanced cancer in 2014 and suffice it to say that helping and supporting her took precedence for the last third of the year as she went through surgery, radiation, and chemo. For the last three months of the year, I wrote fewer pieces in each month than I typically do in two or three days, so you can imagine how much time I was spending paying close attention to the markets.

Anyways, on with the show...

I maintain two separate portfolios (“A” and “B”). Portfolio A is supposed to be a more actively managed portfolio with a greater focus on year-to-year returns. Portfolio B is supposed to be more about long-term opportunities; I don't care so much about the year-to-year performance of holdings so much as the potential/performance over three or more years.

Portfolio A did okay in 2014, beating the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 but lagging the Nasdaq. The biggest positive contributors were Alnylam (ALNY) and Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), followed by Multi-Color (LABL). Hurco (HURC) and the Wright Medical Group CVRs (WMGIZ) both did well but make up a relatively small part of the assets. ABB (ABB), First Cash Financial (FCFS) and FEMSA (FMX) were the biggest drags on performance; Cameron (CAM), Lundbeck (HLUYY), Weatherford (WFT), and Ultratech (UTEK) were all laggards, but less meaningful given their smaller allocation.

Portfolio B was a total mess, lagging all of the indexes I care about and doing just generally rotten on its own. I suppose I could blame some of it on a lack of attention in the last third of the year, but the numbers are what they are. Alnylam, Broadcom (BRCM), and EMC (EMC) were the most meaningful positive contributors, while Statoil (STO), Triangle Petroleum (TPLM), and FEMSA were the biggest losers in the mix.

On a combined basis, the results weren't nearly good enough. The three-year and five-year numbers are still decent, but hopefully I can get back to the sort of performance I expect on a year-in/year-out basis.

2014 Returns

Portfolio A: +14.2%

Portfolio B: + 11.5%

Combined Portfolios: +13.53%

S&P 500: +13.69%

Nasdaq: + 14.75%

Russell 3000: + 12.56%

Three-Year Returns (annualized)

Portfolio A: +24.1%

Portfolio B: +16.9%

Combined Portfolios: +21.3%

S&P 500: +20.4%Nasdaq: +23.6%Russell 3000: +20.5%

2013 Performance Numbers

I apologize for being a little slow in getting my performance numbers up. It was a decent enough year for me, but not as good as I expect from myself. My more aggressively-managed account did beat the S&P 500 and Russell 3000, while my more conservatively-run account lagged and dragged down the overall returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, though, I'm reasonably happy with the results, as Portfolio A and the combined portfolios had positive alpha for the year.

2013 Returns


Portfolio A: +34.9%
Portfolio B: +25.7%
Combined Portfolios: +31.0%


S&P 500: +32.4%
Nasdaq: +40.1%
Russell 3000: +33.6%


Portfolio A Alpha: +3.7%
Portfolio B Alpha: -1.3%
Combined Portfolio Alpha: +1.3%


Portfolio A:
Winners: Alnylam (+252%), Senomyx (+201%), Multi-Color (+58%), 3M (+54%), Societe Generale (+51%)
Losers: Commercial Vehicle Group (-12%), Ultratech (-4%), FEMSA (-0.4%), Brasil Foods (+0.1%), EMC (+0.2%)


Portfolio B:
Winners: Alnylam (+252%), Senomyx (+201%), Societe Generale (+51%), Manitex (+45%), Roche (+42%)
Losers: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (-19%), Turkcell (-17%), Ultratech (-4%), FEMSA (-0.4%), Statoil (-0.2%)


* Please note, those returns reflect the returns while they were in my account.


Three-Year Returns


Portfolio A: +18.9%
Portfolio B: +16.6%
Combined Portfolios: +18.1%


S&P 500: +16.2%
Nasdaq: +17.7%
Russell 3000: +16.2%


Five-Year Returns


Portfolio A: +21.7%
Portfolio B: +19.3%
Combined Portfolios: +20.7%


S&P 500: +17.9%
Nasdaq: +22.9%
Russell 3000: +18.7%


Disclosure: I own all of the shares mentioned in this post.

Q1 2013 Performance Update

The first quarter was another strong one for my portfolio(s). A significant percentage of my holdings are at, or above, fair value and I'm starting to worry that U.S. markets (and many foreign markets) are getting overheated. While I'd rather hold overpriced shares of a good company than undervalued shares of inferior companies, I will likely be looking to shift some capital towards stocks with more compelling valuations.

Q!'13 Performance
Portfolio A - +15.2%
Portfolio B - +9.4%
Combined Portfolios - +13.2%

S&P 500 - +10.0%
Nasdaq - +8.2%
Russell 3000 - +10.5%

Please note that the market performance figures do not include dividends, which I would estimate would add about 0.5% to the S&P 500 performance number. 

More Detailed Performance Review

I've had a little time to catch up, and now I can present the "full and final" performance numbers for my portfolios in 2012.

Portfolio A: +27.3%
Portfolio B: +26.8%
Combined Portfolios: +27.1%

S&P 500 (total return): +16.0%
Nasdaq Comp: +17.5%
Russell 3000: +16.4%

Portfolio A Alpha: 11.8%
Portfolio B Alpha: 13.5%
Combined Portfolios Alpha: 12.4%

I'm pleased with these results. The beta in my A portfolio ticked up slightly in Q4, while the Portfolio B beta ticked down a bit, but they continue to perform basically the way I want (B being the lower-beta portfolio).

I won't go through a complete performance attribution, but I will say that the follow were major positive (and negative) contributors for the year:

Portfolio A: 
Winners: BMTI (+149%), ALNY (+111%), SCGLY (+70%), PRAA (+56%)
Losers: SNMX (-56%), TWGP (-13%), AES (-12%)

Portfolio B:
Winners: ALNY (+111%), LXRX (+77%), SCGLY (+70%), FMX (+44%)
Losers: SNMX (-56%), TWGP (-13%), AMX (0%), MSM (+5%)

Clearly biotech was a big positive contributor to 2012 results, and I can say that various buyouts within my portfolio were a big help as well. By no means do I expect to replicate 2012's results this year, but here's hoping!

Second Quarter Performance

I thought I had posted this the weekend after the end of the second quarter, but either I messed up or there was some issue with Blogspot. In any case, I'm re-posting it here.

The slowdown in industrials did me no favors, nor did the issues in Brazil or at JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM). That said, it could have been a lot worse. I have a fair bit of dry powder now, and I'm looking to get more active after second quarter earnings. 


Q2'12 Performance
Portfolio A - (5.0%)
Portfolio B - (0.1%)
Combined Portfolios - (3.2%)

S&P 500 - (3.3%)
Nasdaq -  (5.1%)
Russell 3000 - (3.7%)

YTD Performance
Portfolio A - +11.0%
Portfolio B - +15.1%
Combined Portfolios - +12.5%

S&P 500 - +8.3%
Nasdaq - +12.7%
Russell 3000 - +8.2%

Disclosure: I own shares of JPMorgan

First Quarter Performance

So, the first quarter is in the books. It was a so-so quarter. Certainly plenty of my holdings did really well, but once again my policy of "enlightened sloth" came with some costs - namely missing out on some pretty impressive runs in tech names.

With two of my holdings accepting buyout bids this quarter, I'll definitely have cash to reinvest quite soon. 


Q1'12 Performance
Portfolio A - +16.9%
Portfolio B - +15.2%
Combined Portfolios - +16.3%

S&P 500 - +12.0%
Nasdaq - +18.7%
Russell 3000 - +12.3%

YTD Performance
Portfolio A - +16.9%
Portfolio B - +15.2%
Combined Portfolios - +16.3%

S&P 500 - +12.0%
Nasdaq - +18.7%
Russell 3000 - +12.3%

The Tale Of The Tape For 2011

What can I say about 2011 other than “good riddance”?

In many respects, 2011 actually wasn't that bad of a year. There were plenty of good ideas out there and plenty of chances to make a profit. Unfortunately, I seemed to have a frustrating predilection for self-inflicted wounds this year. Mistakes are normal and I accept them as part of the endeavor; dumb mistakes drive me stark raving mad.

To offer one example – had I used my time-tested method for selling and preserving gains in just a single stock (Sauer-Danfoss), I would have beaten the market this year and kept that streak alive for another year. Had I not been lazy or ambivalent about Pharmasset and actually added that to my portfolio, I would have likewise managed to keep the streak alive.

Then again, I almost bought Hypermarcas and Cline Mining at various points in the year, and not doing so proved to be returns-saving moves as well. And so it goes – much as I may lament that “one mistake” that screwed up my performance, I have to acknowledge that I got plenty of boons that likewise boosted my performance.

And without further ado, here are the disappointing numbers for 2011:

Portfolio A: (2.8%)

Portfolio B: (0.8%)

Combined portfolios: (2.2%)

S&P 500: (0.0%)

Nasdaq: (1.8%)

I own shares of Sauer-Danfoss

Third Quarter Performance

No point in sugar-coating it, my performance in the third quarter was absolutely abysmal.

In retrospect, it's abjectly obvious that I hung on too long to names like Sauer-Danfoss (NYSE: SHS), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), and ISTA (Nasdaq: ISTA), and probably should have cut bait on names like Commercial Vehicle Group (Nasdaq: CVGI) a long, long time ago.

On the other hand, I believe in buying good companies and holding them for as long as the businesses are good ... so I'm not going to beat myself up just because it crushed my performance (and wrecked my YTD performance as well).

Going forward, I have money to invest and I'm getting a little twitchy about the energy and resource names, as well as some tech names. Yeah, if we tip over into recession those names will get smacked, but then so will most of what I own anyway. It's not often that names like Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) or F5 (Nasdaq: FFIV) get close to cheap, so maybe now's the time.

Q3'11 Performance
Portfolio A - (19.0%)
Portfolio B - (11.5%)
Combined Portfolios - (16.5%)

S&P 500 - (14.3%)
Nasdaq - (12.9%)
Russell 3000 - (15.7%)

YTD Performance
Portfolio A - (11.2%)
Portfolio B - (4.1%)
Combined Portfolios - (8.8%)

S&P 500 - (10.0%)
Nasdaq - (9.0%)
Russell 3000 - (11.1%)

Disclosure: I own shares of Sauer-Danfoss, Portfolio Recovery, ISTA, and CVGI

Second Quarter Performance

In a word, "blech".

I actually have far more colorful descriptions of this quarter's performance, but I try to keep the language here family-friendly (which is no doubt a major shock to those who actually know me!).

In any case, this was a lousy, frustrating, pain-in-the-butt kind of quarter. There's no question that a few big disappointments weighed on results. BioMimetic Therapeutics (Nasdaq: BMTI) has gotten absolutely crushed ever since a pretty iffy FDA panel meeting (and a reset of expectations that its product will get bounced by the agency). ISTA Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ISTA) did great and then gave most of it back, and my bank stocks did mostly nothing.

Making matter worse, I know the ultimate end-of-quarter performance isn't really as good as it looks. I think the big run-up in the last week or two was window dressing and I think a lot of it is going to evaporate.

Ugh. The joys of investing, right?

So, without further adieu (or whining), here's the numbers:

Q2'11 Performance
Portfolio A - (2.6%)
Portfolio B - +2.8%
Combined Portfolios - (0.8%)

S&P 500 - (0.4%)
Nasdaq - (0.3%)
Russell 3000 - (0.5%)

YTD Performance
Portfolio A - +9.7%
Portfolio B - +8.4%
Combined Portfolios - +9.2%

S&P 500 - +5.0%
Nasdaq - +4.5%
Russell 3000 - +5.4%

Disclosure - I own shares of BioMimetic and ISTA

First Quarter Performance

This was an odd opening to the year. Through the first two months of the quarter, I was down a bit relative to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. March has been a real lion for me, though, with stocks like First Cash (FCFS), Sauer-Danfoss (SHS), ISTA (ISTA), and TomoTherapy (TOMO) all really coming through for me in a big way.

First quarter 2011 -
Portfolio A : +12.6%
Portfolio B: +5.4%
Combined portfolios: +10.1%

S&P 500: +5.4%
Nasdaq: +4.8%
Russell 3000: +5.9%

Disclosure - I own shares of First Cash Financial, Sauer-Danfoss, ISTA Pharmaceuticals, and TomoTherapy