Crane's (NYSE:CR)
first quarter results, and the reaction to them, sort of remind me of
what happens when you have a smart dog and you do the "pretend to throw
the ball but actually don't" trick. While the growth in this first
quarter looked very strong, it's not going to last, and the underlying
trends in the business are more in the range of "okay" than exciting.
I
have very mixed feelings on Crane as an investment. The growth and
margin outlook, not to mention the growth and margin history, aren't
exceptional, and it can be challenging to generate above-average
long-term gains from average performers. On the other hand, Crane is
leveraged to what should be comparatively healthy markets, and
management has plans in place to improve the margin profile. With the
shares more than 10% below my fair value, it's hard not to consider this
name more closely.
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Crane's Sluggish Growth Guidance And First Quarter Head Fake Won't Help The Shares
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