It’s been a rough run for Neurocrine (NBIX) and its investors lately. While the shares have perked up since my last update, the stock had a poor 2020, as investors fretted over weaker Ingrezza sales as the pandemic interrupted normal clinical practices and as there were no real positive clinical updates outside of the crinecerfont Phase II results in congenital adrenal hyperplasia (or CAH), and even those data were biomarker-based. Now the company has decided to jettison the Parkinson’s gene therapy program it acquired (as a partnership) with Voyager (VYGR) back in 2019.
I do have some concerns about the near-term sales/prescription growth prospects for Ingrezza, but I believe the long-term opportunity remains attractive. A stronger Ongentys launch could offer some upside, but the biggest near-term catalyst is the high-risk Phase II INTERACT study of NBI-1065844 (‘844), a DAAO inhibitor licensed from Takeda (TAK) for the negative symptoms of schizophrenia.
I’ve altered my assumptions on the Ingrezza ramp and removed the Voyager Parkinson’s program from my model. Those moves shave about 10% off of my fair value, but I do continue to believe that Neurocrine is sufficiently undervalued to make it worth owning.
Follow this link to the full article:
No comments:
Post a Comment