Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Sliding To The Right ... Again

Sheryl Crow may have been right that the first cut is the deepest, but by the time you get to the third or fourth cut, they all get pretty annoying. Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) continues to do the best it can, given that it's tethered to a team of horses (its customers) that don't seem to know where they're going or when they'll get there. FinFET development has proved frustratingly slow, but there are still credibly reasons to believe that this represents a $600 million-plus market for Ultratech's leading LSA tools.

What to do with the stock? Honestly, if you've made it thus far, I'd suggest holding on. The development of FinFET timelines (and tool orders) has been slower and more opaque than I'd expected, but I haven't really seen much to suggest that flash anneal from Dainippon Screen (OTC:DINRY) or Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) is the best way forward. When (and if) the orders materialize, Ultratech could double its revenue over two years. Of course, there is the risk that Dainippon/Mattson win over fabs and that Ultratech's LSA tools aren't adopted, so this is really only suitable for those with above-average risk tolerance.

Continue here:
Ultratech Sliding To The Right ... Again

Seeking Alpha: For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

The wait goes on at Ultratech (UTEK), and it's not a particularly pleasant one for investors (nor, I imagine, the company's executives and employees). Management noted increased quoting activity for LSA systems and continues to expect orders and shipments to materialize soon, but investors are left in a frustrating grey zone wondering when foundries will make their orders and how the annealing market will shake out between Applied Materials (AMAT), Ultratech, DNS (OTC:DINRY), and Mattson (MTSN).

Ultratech's first quarter results do offer a reminder that the company has other credible business lines, including advanced packaging and tools for high brightness LED manufacturing, but it is the ramp in laser spike annealing tools that will make or break the stock in the near term. Ultratech could still trade into the $30s from here, and investors are now only a quarter or two away on better visibility into this next round of annealing tool orders.

Follow the link to read more:
For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

Seeking Alpha: Mattson Looking For Advanced Chips To Drive The Cycle

Small-cap semiconductor equipment company Mattson Technology (MTSN), like most of its peers, has had its ups and downs recently as investors try to digest and interpret the guidance from major chip and foundry companies on their spending plans. Mattson still has the potential to leverage migration to 3D NAND and FinFET to significant revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, but it remains a risky call as it is a small player relative to Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) and may find it difficult to maintain or grow its share during this next spending cycle.

Read the full article here:
Mattson Looking For Advanced Chips To Drive The Cycle

Seeking Alpha: Waiting For Ultratech, Or Waiting For Godot?

The difficult wait at Ultratech (UTEK) goes on, as investors are growing restless with the lack of much-needed laser spike annealing orders. While I still believe that Ultratech has very competitive technology in this market and that LSA is going to be vital to sub-20nm chip production, that belief is being tested in the face of poor ordering results. In the meantime, growth in the advanced packaging, metrology, and ALD is nice to see, but not enough to drive the stock.

Recreating the company's past market share in LSA in this next generation of chips would still make this a stock very much worth owning. I would also point out that the company has nearly $10 a share in cash on the balance sheet on a fully-diluted basis. It must be said, though, that Ultratech is getting very close to that "put up or shut up" point where talking about technology and revenue potential feels pointless in the face of relative performance data from Applied Materials (AMAT), Dainippon Screen (OTC:DINRY), and perhaps Mattson (MTSN).

Read more here:
Waiting For Ultratech, Or Waiting For Godot?

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Has To Deliver The Orders This Year

Tech investors may have short memories, but they are quick to punish companies that cannot deliver the goods when it comes to growth. Ultratech (UTEK) has most definitely been a disappointment over the past year, as enthusiasm over the odds of the company seeing its laser spike annealing tools adopted into advanced semiconductor nodes has given way to the reality of significant share loss at the 20nm (most likely to Dainippon Screen (OTC:DINRY)).

Amidst that disappointing backdrop of 2013, the shares have rallied about 20% in recent months. Multiple factories have made LSA the process of record in their 16nm/14nm nodes, and most factories are looking at LSA at multiple steps - increasing the overall addressable market. The key question, though, is whether Ultratech can beat companies like Applied Materials (AMAT) and get the orders and rebuild its share. I'm still bullish on these shares (and still an owner), but for all of the interesting potential in areas like advanced packaging, LEDs, and metrology, it will be the LSA orders in 2014 that really move this stock.

Continue reading here:
Ultratech Has To Deliver The Orders This Year

Seeking Alpha: Mattson Technology: A High-Beta Play On 20nm And Below

Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Ashraf Eassa and I have both written previously about Ultratech (UTEK), a semiconductor equipment company that we both like for its innovative positions in laser spike annealing (LSA) and advanced packaging lithography ("flip chips"), as well as the potential of its steppers in LED manufacturing. In particular, we have both made the case that advanced annealing technologies are likely to be a critical factor in the move to sub-20nm processes.

Ultratech isn't the only game in town, though, and there are multiple technologies and process steps that are going to play significant roles in the production of FinFETs and 3D circuits. With that, I would take a look at Mattson Technologies (MTSN), as this company has already accomplished the not-so-easy task of gaining meaningful share in the dry strip, rapid thermal processing (RTP), and etch markets despite competing with giants like Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Tokyo Electron (TOELY.PK).

While 2013 has proven to be a very disappointing year for semiconductor equipment orders (and much like waiting for Godot), I don't believe this stagnation is sustainable. Foundries and chip companies can only delay orders and repurpose older equipment for so long. With that, I believe orders will begin to recover in late 2013/early 2014 and bring Wall Street back to the view that Mattson has the collection of tools and technology to challenge its prior record revenue levels - an achievement that I believe could take the shares to $3 or above.

Please read the full article at Seeking Alpha:
Mattson Technology: A High-Beta Play On 20nm And Below

Investopedia: A Melancholy Farewell to FSI International

There are two kinds of investors - those who've watched a great idea slip away and liars. In other words, it's just part of the nature of investing that eventually you're going to identify a great stock and somehow, for some reason, not buy it before its big move. With today's news that Tokyo Electron is buying up-and-coming semiconductor equipment company FSI International (Nasdaq:FSII), I add another stock to that not-so-illustrious list.

Please read more here :
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/A-Melancholy-Farewell-To-FSI-International-FSII-AMAT-LRCX-INTC0813.aspx

Investopedia: Volatility Is The Price Of Opportunity At FSI International

Financial writers love to write articles that talk about how if investors had simply bought "Super-Duper Tech Stock" back in the earliest days and held on tight, they'd be sitting on windfall profits and debating which island to buy for their retirement. What those articles often fail to mention is that the road from small up-and-comer to successful growth stock is never straight or smooth; there are bumps, potholes and detours along the way and some of them are real doozies.

That is worth remembering when it comes to wafer cleaning equipment company FSI International (Nasdaq:FSII). The volatility in growth and guidance over the past few quarters highlights several key points about this stock - there is real growth potential here, but the company is exceptionally vulnerable to any wobble in orders.

Please continue here:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Volatility-Is-The-Price-Of-Opportunity-At-FSI-International-FSII-AMAT-LRCX-TSM0625.aspx

Investopedia: There's Still Time To Buy FSI International

The semiconductor sector has looked a bit more wobbly of late, but the odds still seem to favor a pick up in activity and orders in the semiconductor equipment space. Investors who want to make a high-risk/high-reward play on the sector should still consider FSI International (Nasdaq:FSII). While this tiny company's market share in the wafer cleaning space is still tantamount to rounding error, solid order growth speaks to a more interesting future.

Q2 Results - Plenty of Progress, Plenty of Work to Do 

FSI's second quarter highlights some of the pluses and minuses of this almost unfollowed story. Revenue rose 25% this quarter and handily surpassed sell-side analyst estimates. In point of fact, business was even a little better than it looked, as the company shipped two Orion systems that it was not able to recognize as revenue for the quarter.

Please read more here:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Theres-Still-Time-To-Buy-FSI-International-FSII-AMAT-LRCX-TSM0322.aspx

Seeking Alpha: FSI International - This Small Semiconductor Company Could Clean Up

It has already been a fairly solid year for many companies in the semiconductor equipment space. With guidance from major players like Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML (ASML) suggesting that dawn is breaking and the merger between Lam Research (LRCX) and Novellus (NVLS) hinting that business is getting back to normal, investors seem to be willing to consider risky stories again.

That could set up the right sort of one-two punch for investors in FSI International (FSII). Like many other small equipment vendors, FSI was hit hard by the downturn in equipment spending. Unlike some of those small peers, though, FSI is coming into a cyclical upswing with a new product and the potential for some real sales momentum. Couple that with the fact that this stock is barely followed and has about 10% short interest, and it may not take much for this stock to do even more in 2012.

Read more here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/345591-fsi-international-this-small-semiconductor-company-could-clean-up