Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Still Predictably Unpredictable, But Orders Are Improving

Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) is never going to be Honeywell (NYSE:HON) or Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), so if you're looking for a consistent, predictable company without a lot of quarter-to-quarter surprises, please look elsewhere. What Ultratech does offer, though, is leverage to what looks like an improving semiconductor order cycle, as well as leverage to specific drivers like advanced packaging for logic chips, 3D metrology, and perhaps the ongoing move to smaller FinFET nodes.

These shares have done pretty well since my last write-up, with Ultratech's roughly 20% move ahead of the SOX Index (up about 12%), though not as strong as the 25% move at Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Rudolph (NYSE:RTEC). Valuation remains tricky; if the company could regain the 20%-plus operating margins and 15%-plus FCF margins of prior upswings, there would still be upside, but UTEK faces a lot of competition in its key markets, and there are legitimate questions about its ability to execute.

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Ultratech Still Predictably Unpredictable, But Orders Are Improving

Seeking Alpha: Steady Progress Still Elusive For Ultratech

The past year wasn't a great one for the semiconductor equipment industry, and in fact Ultratech's (NASDAQ:UTEK) 2% rise over the last twelve months puts it on pretty high ground compared to rivals like Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) (down 30%), Rudolph (NYSE:RTEC) (down 7%), and Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) (down 2%), as well as other industry bellwethers like Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and ASML (NASDAQ:ASML). That comes despite a disappointing run of performance that saw a 1% drop in full year-over-year revenue and two straight top line misses to end the year.

This remains what it has been for some time - an increasingly speculative story predicated on improving orders for the company's advanced packaging, laser processing, and wafer inspection tools. While Ultratech clearly dropped the ball with respect to laser processing at sub-20nm nodes (or perhaps it is more fair to say that Mattson stripped it away), there may be some early signs of improvement, as well as the opportunity to leverage follow-on orders at 28nm and above.

If Ultratech can build on its three core businesses in 2016 and start outperforming, the shares could certainly move into the mid-to-high $20s, but investors have to at least consider the risk that companies like Rudolph and SUSS MicroTec (SMHN.XE) will do to Ultratech in advanced packaging what Mattson did in thermal processing and that the company fails to regain momentum with its laser processing business.

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Steady Progress Still Elusive For Ultratech

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech's Convoluted And Uncertain Path

The Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) story continues to be an exercise in frustration. While management has long argued that its laser annealing technology was the superior option for sub-20nm chip fabs, the reality is that fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) just aren't all that dismayed by the issues with the flash annealing tools offered by rivals like Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN). With that, the argument that LSA tools would replicate their 50%-plus share of 28nm manufacturing at 14nm/16nm has evaporated, and the real market share has been closer to the 20% seen at the 45nm node.

Looking at this a different way, what was supposed to be a year of momentum in LSA tool orders and roughly $200 million in revenue (the sell-side expectation in December of 2014) has instead turned into minimal order activity (none in the third quarter) and probably something closer to $150 million to $160 million in 2015 revenue.

What to do with these shares now? The shares are actually up about 10% from my last update and now arguably (very arguably, in my opinion) have a new value metric established by the merger agreement that Mattson signed with Beijing E-Town Dragon Semiconductor. What's more, I do think there is legitimate momentum in the advanced packaging (AP) business and good prospects in metrology. On the other hand, I just don't have the confidence in management that I once did, and I think Ultratech is firmly in the "show me" penalty box today.

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Ultratech's Convoluted And Uncertain Path

Seeking Alpha: With Minimal Guidance, Ultratech Left Groping In The Dark

The last year hasn't been particularly kind to most semiconductor equipment companies, but Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) has fared among the worst as the company has come up far short of the expectations that the company's laser spike annealing tools would play a significant role in the migration to 14nm/16nm FinFET chips at major manufacturers like TSMC (NYSE:TSM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung. While emerging opportunities in advanced packaging, inspection, and atomic layer deposition take away a little bit of the sting, it hasn't been nearly enough to maintain the prior outlook.

Management hasn't been much help, as the guidance on the last couple of calls really hasn't shed much light on the outlook for the company's tools. I do not believe that management is misleading or withholding information from investors, but the lack of visibility in the market is a definite risk factor. So too is the risk that the company has lost enough share to companies like Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) that it threatens the basic thesis that Ultratech's tools offer much-needed advantages in performance.

There is a chance that Ultratech can support a higher valuation largely on the basis of its opportunities in advanced packaging, and the company's cash-rich balance sheet largely takes survivability off the table as an issue. Unfortunately, the lack of traction and visibility in thermal processing makes this more and more of a gamble/speculation than a real investment.

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With Minimal Guidance, Ultratech Left Groping In The Dark

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It

Investors can be fickle, and with that I have to wonder whether Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) will hold on to the positive boost in sentiment that the company gained by reporting better earnings for the first quarter. Guidance for the second quarter was not as strong as could have been hoped, and there has been no easing of concerns regarding the company's ability to play a leading role in rapid thermal processing for sub-20nm chips and grab share from Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN), and/or Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY).

Ultratech shares are still not pricing in any particularly significant ramp in sales or profits. That is in spite of real progress in diversifying the company's portfolio and recent growth in the advanced packaging opportunity. Although I cannot really model a scenario where Ultratech is shut out of the sub-20nm rapid thermal processing market and really thrives, progress with advanced packaging does at least provide some backstop. I continue to believe that Ultratech shares can generate double-digit returns from here, but this is a small position for me and I freely acknowledge that this remains much more of an "if" story than a "when".

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Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It

Seeking Alpha: The Wait Drags On With Ultratech

If FinFET-related annealing orders eventually do appear in 2015 and the 3D advanced packaging opportunity develops as management hopes, Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) will likely look like a study on the rewards of patience. If the trends seen throughout 2014 continue, it's going to be an experience in death by hundreds of papercuts.

Ultratech still isn't seeing the orders for its LSA systems that it needs to generate attractive margin leverage and get Wall Street enthusiastic about the shares. 2015 is shaping up as a make-or-break year, but then 2014 was supposed to be that way and leading chip producers like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung delayed orders in response to FinFET yield issues. While a strong LSA cycle and growing interest in the company's advanced packaging and metrology products could eventually support a much higher share price, the high teens to low $20's is probably as good as it gets until/unless those orders start to show up in the company's books.

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The Wait Drags On With Ultratech

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best

The past year was a miserable one for Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) shareholders. The recurrent theme of the year was that weak 14nm/16nm yields weighed on orders for new LSA tools, leading to multiples "shifts to the right" in order and revenue expectations. Expectations for 2014 revenue fell from the range of $180 million to $200 million in late 2013 to $147 million as of this writing and now there is concern as to whether Ultratech has lost share to Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) and whether 10nm might sap the 14nm/16nm cycle altogether.

This certainly showed up in the stock's performance. Ultratech fell 37% last year, while Mattson rose more than 19% and Screen rose almost 13% (Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which also sells thermal processing equipment rose more than 36%). It's not hopeless at Ultratech, and the company does have growth opportunities in advanced packaging, metrology, and atomic layer deposition, but 2015 is likely to be a long year for shareholders without some visibility and encouragement in LSA orders.

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Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Sliding To The Right ... Again

Sheryl Crow may have been right that the first cut is the deepest, but by the time you get to the third or fourth cut, they all get pretty annoying. Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) continues to do the best it can, given that it's tethered to a team of horses (its customers) that don't seem to know where they're going or when they'll get there. FinFET development has proved frustratingly slow, but there are still credibly reasons to believe that this represents a $600 million-plus market for Ultratech's leading LSA tools.

What to do with the stock? Honestly, if you've made it thus far, I'd suggest holding on. The development of FinFET timelines (and tool orders) has been slower and more opaque than I'd expected, but I haven't really seen much to suggest that flash anneal from Dainippon Screen (OTC:DINRY) or Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) is the best way forward. When (and if) the orders materialize, Ultratech could double its revenue over two years. Of course, there is the risk that Dainippon/Mattson win over fabs and that Ultratech's LSA tools aren't adopted, so this is really only suitable for those with above-average risk tolerance.

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Ultratech Sliding To The Right ... Again

Seeking Alpha: For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

The wait goes on at Ultratech (UTEK), and it's not a particularly pleasant one for investors (nor, I imagine, the company's executives and employees). Management noted increased quoting activity for LSA systems and continues to expect orders and shipments to materialize soon, but investors are left in a frustrating grey zone wondering when foundries will make their orders and how the annealing market will shake out between Applied Materials (AMAT), Ultratech, DNS (OTC:DINRY), and Mattson (MTSN).

Ultratech's first quarter results do offer a reminder that the company has other credible business lines, including advanced packaging and tools for high brightness LED manufacturing, but it is the ramp in laser spike annealing tools that will make or break the stock in the near term. Ultratech could still trade into the $30s from here, and investors are now only a quarter or two away on better visibility into this next round of annealing tool orders.

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For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

Seeking Alpha: Mattson Looking For Advanced Chips To Drive The Cycle

Small-cap semiconductor equipment company Mattson Technology (MTSN), like most of its peers, has had its ups and downs recently as investors try to digest and interpret the guidance from major chip and foundry companies on their spending plans. Mattson still has the potential to leverage migration to 3D NAND and FinFET to significant revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, but it remains a risky call as it is a small player relative to Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) and may find it difficult to maintain or grow its share during this next spending cycle.

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Mattson Looking For Advanced Chips To Drive The Cycle

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Has To Deliver The Orders This Year

Tech investors may have short memories, but they are quick to punish companies that cannot deliver the goods when it comes to growth. Ultratech (UTEK) has most definitely been a disappointment over the past year, as enthusiasm over the odds of the company seeing its laser spike annealing tools adopted into advanced semiconductor nodes has given way to the reality of significant share loss at the 20nm (most likely to Dainippon Screen (OTC:DINRY)).

Amidst that disappointing backdrop of 2013, the shares have rallied about 20% in recent months. Multiple factories have made LSA the process of record in their 16nm/14nm nodes, and most factories are looking at LSA at multiple steps - increasing the overall addressable market. The key question, though, is whether Ultratech can beat companies like Applied Materials (AMAT) and get the orders and rebuild its share. I'm still bullish on these shares (and still an owner), but for all of the interesting potential in areas like advanced packaging, LEDs, and metrology, it will be the LSA orders in 2014 that really move this stock.

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Ultratech Has To Deliver The Orders This Year

Seeking Alpha: Mattson Technology: A High-Beta Play On 20nm And Below

Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Ashraf Eassa and I have both written previously about Ultratech (UTEK), a semiconductor equipment company that we both like for its innovative positions in laser spike annealing (LSA) and advanced packaging lithography ("flip chips"), as well as the potential of its steppers in LED manufacturing. In particular, we have both made the case that advanced annealing technologies are likely to be a critical factor in the move to sub-20nm processes.

Ultratech isn't the only game in town, though, and there are multiple technologies and process steps that are going to play significant roles in the production of FinFETs and 3D circuits. With that, I would take a look at Mattson Technologies (MTSN), as this company has already accomplished the not-so-easy task of gaining meaningful share in the dry strip, rapid thermal processing (RTP), and etch markets despite competing with giants like Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Tokyo Electron (TOELY.PK).

While 2013 has proven to be a very disappointing year for semiconductor equipment orders (and much like waiting for Godot), I don't believe this stagnation is sustainable. Foundries and chip companies can only delay orders and repurpose older equipment for so long. With that, I believe orders will begin to recover in late 2013/early 2014 and bring Wall Street back to the view that Mattson has the collection of tools and technology to challenge its prior record revenue levels - an achievement that I believe could take the shares to $3 or above.

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Mattson Technology: A High-Beta Play On 20nm And Below