Writing about Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) ("OMA") in late August, I said that I saw more risk in this name due to its heavier reliance on domestic business travel within Mexico and its lack of attractive exposure to popular leisure destinations, but also that I saw more return potential. Time will tell on the return potential, but the shares have largely kept pace with Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) ("Sureste") and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) ("Pacifico") despite weaker traffic and revenue numbers.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has thrown the markets into turmoil and led to a definite shift away risk. While I don't see much direct risk to OMA, higher energy prices are likely to have a negative impact on the global economy overall, and that will likely filter down to weaker demand for air travel if Russia persists. At this point I still see meaningful upside in OMA shares, largely tied to ongoing recoveries in business travel, but also stronger-than-expected operating leverage.
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