An outperformer over the past year, Swiss drug giant Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) has given some of that back lately, with the shares underperforming the broader peer group over the last three months. Second quarter results aren’t going to help that, as the Covid-19 pandemic had a bigger than expected impact on drug sales and the performance of the diagnostics business remains lackluster.
I have few meaningful concerns about Roche on a longer-term basis, beyond my previously-discussed concerns that the diagnostics business needs a more thorough restructuring/self-improvement drive. The pharmaceutical pipeline remains well-stocked, and Roche management continues to demonstrate that they are capable of both buying and building attractive clinical assets. I continue to believe that the company can generate mid-single-digit FCF growth on a long-term basis, and mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth on a more medium-term basis, supporting a fair value in the md-to-high $40’s for the ADRs.
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