Owning a biotech, particularly an early-stage biotech, can be a little like watching paint dry … while suspended very high up in the air and secured by a very thin cord. While management at Aptose (APTO) has been diligent about working with clinicians to keep its trials moving and advance both CG-806 and APTO-253 into higher dosing cohorts, the reality is that investors still have to wait a bit longer to see any meaningful updated efficacy data (likely early December at the ASH meeting), and even then the look at the data will be "through a glass, darkly", as it will be far from a complete picture on the efficacy of the drug(s) in question.
I've adjusted my cash and capital-raising model to account for Aptose raising more money at lower stock prices than I'd previously expected, and this has a modestly negative impact on my fair value. I don't fault the company for doing this, and I think it should be viewed in the context of constrained optimization - Aptose wants to maximize the value of its clinical assets (expanding into studies of other types of cancer), and improve its shareholder base, but can only go so far so fast with its cash.
Read the full article here:
Aptose: Boring Today, But Things Could Get Exciting Later This Year
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