Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Voestalpine Stuck In No Man's Land With Weak Prices And Few Leverageable Opportunities

This is a very challenging time to be a steel company. While the general consensus is that the auto and most industrial markets bottomed in the second quarter, utilization remains very weak in North America and Europe and it seems unlikely that demand is going to rebound strongly enough to allow for real pricing power.

I thought voestalpine (OTCPK:VLPNY) (VOES.VI) (or “Voestalpine”) was an “okay” idea back in December largely on the basis of its relative quality and valuation. As is often the case, higher-quality companies fared better during this recent downturn, with voestalpine’s performance on par with Steel Dynamics (STLD), Nucor (NUE), and SSAB (OTCPK:SSAAY), while companies like ArcelorMittal (MT) and U.S. Steel (X) performed notably worse. I do now believe that voestalpine is cheaper than peers like Steel Dynamics and Nucor, but I see a relatively better risk-reward in ideas like Acerinox (ANOIY) and Ternium (TX).

 

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Voestalpine Stuck In No Man's Land With Weak Prices And Few Leverageable Opportunities

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