Chasing Nike (NYSE:NKE) in the footwear business has to be a frustrating exercise for the likes of Adidas (Nasdaq:ADDYY), Skechers (NYSE:SKX), and Puma.
In good times and bad, Nike's unmatched commitment to marketing and
product development translates into strong share, revenue, and profits.
Should Nike ever make a similar commitment to leading the apparel
market, who knows how much larger the company could get? In any case,
Nike doesn't look cheap today, but then it so seldom does.
A Solid End To The Year
Nike brought the fiscal year to a good end with fourth quarter results.
Revenue rose more than 7% as reported, or about 9% on a constant
currency basis. Growth was led by the tiny equipment business (up over
10%), while footwear sales rose almost 7% and apparel was up 6%. While
the North American market has remained a hot one for Nike (up 12%),
China has turned positive again.
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Showing posts with label lululemon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lululemon. Show all posts
Friday, June 28, 2013
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Investopedia: As One Problem Fades At lululemon athletica, Another One Emerges
Even the most patient investor in lululemon athletica (Nasdaq:LULU)
has to be dreading earnings release dates from this fast-growing
athletic apparel company. Not only does this stock experience the normal
volatility that goes with high-growth/high-expectation names (“You
missed comps by a half-point? Off with your head!”), but the
announcement of a major product defect (see-through pants) and now the
CEO resignation have added even more turmoil.
Through all of this, lululemon has remained an impressive growth story, but maybe the cracks are starting to appear and competitors are starting to up their games as well. While I'm solidly on board with the idea of picking up growth stocks on pullbacks that don't seem related to material events, the loss of a quality CEO seems pretty material to me. Consequently, I'd be careful about piling into lululemon with the idea that a quick rebound is guaranteed.
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Through all of this, lululemon has remained an impressive growth story, but maybe the cracks are starting to appear and competitors are starting to up their games as well. While I'm solidly on board with the idea of picking up growth stocks on pullbacks that don't seem related to material events, the loss of a quality CEO seems pretty material to me. Consequently, I'd be careful about piling into lululemon with the idea that a quick rebound is guaranteed.
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Saturday, March 23, 2013
Investopedia: Nike Continues To Just Do It
For Nike (NYSE:NKE)
to perform as it has despite economic challenges in Europe, China, and
the U.S. is a pretty strong testament both to the power of the brand,
but also the company's commitment to product development. With a strong
pipeline, signs of improvement in China, and the potential to recapture
some lost gross margin,
Nike could retest its 52-week high in the not-so-distant future. Nike
isn't a terribly cheap or underrated stock, but strong financial
performance could still translate into decent (or better) stock
performance.
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Investopedia: Have See-Through Pants Created An Opportunity In lululemon Shares?
For a stock with a take-no-prisoners valuation, the reaction to Lululemon Athletica's (Nasdaq:LULU)
sizable product recall has been quite restrained. Even with a defective
batch of the company's top product taking steam out of the first
quarter's comp growth, this company is still growing and seeing good
success in broadening its product offerings. While there is a limit to
how many missteps customers will tolerate from a company selling
premium-priced products, Lululemon has
been relatively proactive and upfront in dealing with the issue.
Although I still believe the growth expectations here are still pretty
aggressive, investors who believe otherwise could see this as an
opportunity to pick up shares.
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Friday, December 28, 2012
Investopedia: China's Sluggish, But Nike's Growing Well Everywhere Else
Nike (NYSE:NKE)
gave investors a rare chance to pick up shares at a more reasonable
price twice this year, but it looks like it's back to business as usual
for the world's biggest footwear company. Although business in China
remains sluggish, Nike's overall growth and margin profile continue to
look quite strong.
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Friday, December 7, 2012
Investopedia: lululemon Continues To Deliver High-Priced Performance
"Pay for performance" has long been a mantra on Wall Street, and it's a little harder to condemn athletic apparel maker lululemon athletica (Nasdaq:LULU)
for its valuation when it continues to perform as well as it does. Not
only does the company continue to move truly impressive quantities of
premium-priced merchandise, but the company's cautious inventory and
expansion philosophies mitigate some of the normal retailing risks. All
of that said, investors aren't getting any bargains in these shares.
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Monday, October 1, 2012
Investopedia: China Still A Pebble In Nike's Shoe
The investment community seems to have locked on to Nike's (NYSE:NKE)
"China problem," and this quarter's results aren't going to help. The
good news is that investors can still take advantage of this situation
to build a position in a stock that very rarely ever gets down to a fair
price, let alone cheap. The bad news, however, is that results could
slow in the interim and Wall Street is very much a "what have you done
for me lately?" sort of business.
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Monday, September 10, 2012
Investopedia: Bonkers Expectations May Still Be lululemon athletica's Biggest Challenge
It looks like the momentum trade is back "on" for lululemon athletica (Nasdaq:LULU)
as investors cheered a solid second quarter and encouraging third
quarter guidance. With lululemon's comps remaining in the double-digits
and demand continuing to outstrip supply, the biggest challenge for this
company may simply be living up to expectations. Although this remains
one of the strongest-growing and most productive stories in retailing,
valuation and expectations look more than a little breathless.
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Monday, June 11, 2012
Investopedia: lululemon Chooses "Jam Tomorrow"
"The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday - but never jam to-day." - Lewis Carroll
It's tempting for a company to pull out the stops and grab all the money that it can whenever it can. Smart companies, though, realize that being overly aggressive in the short term can cause bigger problems. To that end, lululemon athletica's (Nasdaq:LULU) decision to focus less on maximizing current sales, in lieu of rolling out fresh product, may be a decision that compromises near-term growth, but keeps the brand healthier over the long term.
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It's tempting for a company to pull out the stops and grab all the money that it can whenever it can. Smart companies, though, realize that being overly aggressive in the short term can cause bigger problems. To that end, lululemon athletica's (Nasdaq:LULU) decision to focus less on maximizing current sales, in lieu of rolling out fresh product, may be a decision that compromises near-term growth, but keeps the brand healthier over the long term.
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Investopedia: Nike Running Away From Everything
When companies with great brands go on runs, all you can really do is hang on for the ride (if you own shares) or wait in the hopes of a stumble somewhere down the line (if you don't). By no means is Nike (NYSE:NKE) cheap right now, but it's hard to fault a huge global leader that is growing by double-digits and could yet double revenue over the next decade (if not sooner).
Another Good Quarter ... Mostly
Although it wasn't a flawless fiscal third quarter, on the whole Nike did a very good job and business is strong. Revenue rose 15%, as the company logged double-digit sales in all of its major categories. Sales to North America (the largest region) rose 17%, while sales to China rose over 25%, despite a somewhat sluggish performance in apparel.
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Another Good Quarter ... Mostly
Although it wasn't a flawless fiscal third quarter, on the whole Nike did a very good job and business is strong. Revenue rose 15%, as the company logged double-digit sales in all of its major categories. Sales to North America (the largest region) rose 17%, while sales to China rose over 25%, despite a somewhat sluggish performance in apparel.
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Saturday, December 3, 2011
Investopedia: Lululemon Slips During Its Highwire Act
You can think of Canadian specialty athletic clothing retailer Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq: LULU) and the Street's reaction to this quarter, in this way: When you're just walking along the street and have a slight stumble or slip, it's no big deal; nobody notices, nobody cares and you probably don't even break stride. Now, imagine having that same stumble when you're on a wire fifty feet above the ground, with thousands of people staring up at you; the consequences of a mistake are a bit higher.
Some Spots Show Up in the Third Quarter
Lululemon has gotten this far, largely on the basis of promising good growth and then delivering even better results. Not this time, though. Although 16% comps growth would be a level of performance that the CEOs of Gap (NYSE: GPS), American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) or Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) would sell a family member to get, it's not going to satisfy the Lululemon crowd, when the last quarter's performance was 20%. Moreover, sales growth of 31% was quite nice, but the company actually missed the average sell-side guess by about $5 million.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Investopedia: Nike Asks, "What Slowdown?"
Few companies get as much credit for its brand value as Nike (NYSE:NKE), but brand value alone does not seem to explain why the company continues to do so well in an environment where consumers are looking left and right for bargains. The fact is, while Nike may not offer the cheapest options in its categories, the price gap is not as large as it used to be and the company has done a very good job of delivering value for money. (If you are interested in value investing, read The Value Investor's Handbook.)
A Good Start to the Fiscal Year
With 18% reported revenue growth and 11% constant currency growth, Nike is starting this fiscal year right. Nike logged 15% growth in North America, while Western Europe was flat on a constant currency basis and China was somewhat sluggish at 9% growth. Emerging markets continue to offer a lot of growth for Nike (up 24%), but are still a fairly small part of the total. On a product line basis, apparel was the laggard with 9% growth (hurt in part by difficult soccer comps), but footwear climbed 13%.
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A Good Start to the Fiscal Year
With 18% reported revenue growth and 11% constant currency growth, Nike is starting this fiscal year right. Nike logged 15% growth in North America, while Western Europe was flat on a constant currency basis and China was somewhat sluggish at 9% growth. Emerging markets continue to offer a lot of growth for Nike (up 24%), but are still a fairly small part of the total. On a product line basis, apparel was the laggard with 9% growth (hurt in part by difficult soccer comps), but footwear climbed 13%.
Read the full piece here:
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Friday, September 9, 2011
Investopedia: Lululemon - Does Success Have To Make Sense?
For all those wishing to suggest that the so-called "Great Recession" has permanently changed consumer spending behavior and value assessment, I would present Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq: LULU). Here is a company that has continued to grow at an impressive clip throughout this downturn and has achieved over $200 million in quarterly revenue on the basis of convincing people to pay $100 for sweatpants (very nice and comfortable sweatpants, I'm told, but still basically just upgraded, bum-sculpting sweatpants). Now the question is how long the company can maintain the momentum in its sales and the anti-gravity in its valuation.
Second Quarter Results Very Limber
Lululemon had another startlingly good quarter from a growth perspective. Revenue rose more than 39%, with same-store comp sales up 20%. What makes that notably impressive to me is that revenue rose 35% year on year in the first quarter (with comp growth of 16%) - so even though consumer confidence and retail spending seems to be getting worse, Lululemon continues to grow apace.
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Second Quarter Results Very Limber
Lululemon had another startlingly good quarter from a growth perspective. Revenue rose more than 39%, with same-store comp sales up 20%. What makes that notably impressive to me is that revenue rose 35% year on year in the first quarter (with comp growth of 16%) - so even though consumer confidence and retail spending seems to be getting worse, Lululemon continues to grow apace.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Investopedia: Nike Still Winning
It seems a little strange that footwear and athletic apparel maker Nike (NYSE:NKE) never quite gets the same respect or admiration that Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) or Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) get from investors and business historians. After all, Nike started at almost the same time as Wal-Mart and is every bit as global (if not more) in its reach and influence.
Perhaps even more to the point for investors, Nike continues to grow at a pace that most other giant consumer products companies struggle to match. With Nike arguably having room for improvement and expansion in multiple areas, there would be seem to be no immediate cause to think Nike cannot continue to grow for many years to come.
A Strong End to the Fiscal Year
Nike reported that sales rose 14% to close out its fiscal year. In topping even the high end of sales estimates, Nike saw footwear sales growth of 19%, apparel growth of near 8%, and equipment growth of 5%. While sales were notably strong in China and emerging markets (and these markets are collectively as important to Nike as Europe), North America was no slouch at 21% reported growth.
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Perhaps even more to the point for investors, Nike continues to grow at a pace that most other giant consumer products companies struggle to match. With Nike arguably having room for improvement and expansion in multiple areas, there would be seem to be no immediate cause to think Nike cannot continue to grow for many years to come.
A Strong End to the Fiscal Year
Nike reported that sales rose 14% to close out its fiscal year. In topping even the high end of sales estimates, Nike saw footwear sales growth of 19%, apparel growth of near 8%, and equipment growth of 5%. While sales were notably strong in China and emerging markets (and these markets are collectively as important to Nike as Europe), North America was no slouch at 21% reported growth.
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Monday, June 13, 2011
Investopedia: Lululemon's Growth Moots The Valuation
Traditional value investors probably didn't like Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq:LULU) before Friday's earnings report, and they are not likely to appreciate it any more afterward. So, for those who think the secret to successful stockpicking is in targeting single-digit EV/EBITDA ratios, sub-1.0 PEG ratios, or similar formulas, Lululemon just is not going to work for them.
For growth investors, though, this is a name that just keeps delivering the goods. There will be a day of reckoning, a day when the growth disappoints and investors suddenly realize that the low-hanging fruit has been plucked, but that day isn't today and it does not look like it's going to be tomorrow either. In the meantime, aggressive investors may continue to benefit from one of the most dynamic stories in retail.
A Strong Start to the Fiscal Year
Lululemon delivered 35% revenue in the fiscal first quarter, with comp-store sales up 16% in constant dollar terms. Few retailers are approaching this sort of growth these days. That said, it looks like maybe Wall Street has caught up to the name a bit - the company did surpass the average analyst estimate, but not by much and the company definitely did not beat the highest end of the range.
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For growth investors, though, this is a name that just keeps delivering the goods. There will be a day of reckoning, a day when the growth disappoints and investors suddenly realize that the low-hanging fruit has been plucked, but that day isn't today and it does not look like it's going to be tomorrow either. In the meantime, aggressive investors may continue to benefit from one of the most dynamic stories in retail.
A Strong Start to the Fiscal Year
Lululemon delivered 35% revenue in the fiscal first quarter, with comp-store sales up 16% in constant dollar terms. Few retailers are approaching this sort of growth these days. That said, it looks like maybe Wall Street has caught up to the name a bit - the company did surpass the average analyst estimate, but not by much and the company definitely did not beat the highest end of the range.
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Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Investopedia: Waiting For A Clearance Sale On Ulta
As investors in retailers like Talbots (NYSE:TLB) or American Eagle (NYSE:AEO) can easily attest, this is not the easiest environment for retail. Oh true, conditions are better now than a year or two ago, but retailers really need to offer something distinctive in terms of product selection, pricing or shopping experience to draw in the crowds.
To that end, Ulta (Nasdaq:ULTA) seems to have hit on an attractive and differentiated concept - a beauty and personal care superstore format that is competitive on pricing while offering a wide selection and pleasant environment. Like lululemon (Nasdaq:LULU) and its own differentiated products and branding, Ulta is carving out an impressive growth trajectory while many of its rivals are struggling to hold on to what they have.
Keeping up the Momentum in Q1
Ulta's fiscal first quarter showed no slowdown in the company's momentum. Sales were up almost 21% on a reported basis, with same-store sales up more than 11%. There is a decided lack of direct comps to Ulta (one of the positives in the company's thesis), but anecdotal from the likes of Macy's (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) would suggest that Ulta's performance is quite a bit stronger than the average department store cosmetics counter.
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Monday, May 2, 2011
Investopedia: Wooly And T-Dawg Go Gucci
Somehow it just does not seem too likely that Gucci's core customer base overlaps much with folks who call themselves "Wooly" and "T-Dawg", but France's PPR, which owns the esteemed Gucci label, is going to give it a go anyway. On Monday morning, the French holding company announced that it would be acquiring U.S. boardwear apparel maker Volcom (Nasdaq:VLCM), which was founded by the aforementioned Wooly and T-Dawg in 1991. (For background reading, see Using Consumer Spending As A Market Indicator.)
The Terms of the Deal
PPR is paying almost $608 million for the smaller clothing company, giving Volcom shareholders $24.50 a share in cash, or a 24% premium to Friday's close. That puts a valuation on Volcom shares of about 1.5x trailing sales and about 10.5x trailing EBITDA - not exactly premium pricing for a once-hot stock.
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The Terms of the Deal
PPR is paying almost $608 million for the smaller clothing company, giving Volcom shareholders $24.50 a share in cash, or a 24% premium to Friday's close. That puts a valuation on Volcom shares of about 1.5x trailing sales and about 10.5x trailing EBITDA - not exactly premium pricing for a once-hot stock.
Still, it is difficult to value a company like Volcom on a relative basis. Billabong is publicly listed in Australia and trades at an even lower valuation, Quicksilver (NYSE:ZQK) is struggling, and other once-popular boardwear companies like Vans and Ocean Pacific faded years ago and were acquired by the likes of VF Corp (NYSE:VFC) and Iconix (Nasdaq:ICON).
Read the full piece here:
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Monday, March 21, 2011
Investopedia: How Far Can Lululemon Stretch?
By any reasonable standards, lululemon athletica (Nasdaq:LULU) has been a fantastic stock over the past two years. Not only has it tripled in value since its debut, but investors who loaded up on these shares in a big way in early 2009 are also looking at a 10-bagger or better. An investor only needs to hit a couple of those in a lifetime to do very well indeed.
But the big question is whether lululemon can maintain the momentum. Everything looks great for the company today, but grizzled retailing investors have seen stories like lululemon before and unfortunately, many of these stories do not have happy endings. (For background reading, see Analyzing Retail Stocks.)
A Solid End to the Fiscal Year
For a company with a track record of blowing away estimates, lululemon's fiscal fourth quarter results were surprising only to a certain degree. Revenue jumped 53% and surpassed the top end of the analyst range, helped in large part by comp-store growth of 28%. Direct-to-customer sales growth was also strong (up 152%), but still constitutes a fairly low percentage of sales.
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But the big question is whether lululemon can maintain the momentum. Everything looks great for the company today, but grizzled retailing investors have seen stories like lululemon before and unfortunately, many of these stories do not have happy endings. (For background reading, see Analyzing Retail Stocks.)
A Solid End to the Fiscal Year
For a company with a track record of blowing away estimates, lululemon's fiscal fourth quarter results were surprising only to a certain degree. Revenue jumped 53% and surpassed the top end of the analyst range, helped in large part by comp-store growth of 28%. Direct-to-customer sales growth was also strong (up 152%), but still constitutes a fairly low percentage of sales.
LULU once again coupled strong sales with impressive operating leverage. Gross margin jumped almost five full points, and the company's operating income grew 72%. LULU has exceptional operating margins for the retail sector - they're at 29% (up from just under 26% a year ago) - and the company once again delivered earnings per share well in excess of analyst expectations. (For more insight, see The Bottom Line On Margins.)
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Investopedia: Urban Warfare
When a company's management spends part of their earnings conference call talking about a company's ten-year trends and history, that is often a bad sign. Such is the case for Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq:URBN). However impressive Urban Outfitters' past may be, it is not going to spare the stock today as investors focus on worrisome developments in margins and inventory.
A Sour Note To End 2010
Urban Outfitters did report 14% overall sales growth for the fourth quarter. That is pretty much it for the good news. That sales level was a bit below analyst expectations, and store comps were down 2% as transactions fell about 1%. On a slightly more encouraging note, sales comps were up 4% if direct-to-consumer sales are included.
To its credit, Urban Outfitters has managed to do what American Eagle (NYSE:AEO) and many other retailers have struggled to do - operate multiple successful brands. The core Urban Outfitters brand saw revenue increase 13% this quarter, with Anthropologie up 10% and Free People up 35%. URBN also has a successful direct-to-consumer business, and revenue here jumped 28%.
Turning back to bad news, the company saw gross margin shrink more than 2% as the company had to get more aggressive with markdowns to move product. SG&A growth matched sales, though, and the company saw operating income tick up 1% while operating margin fell more than 2%. Taxes also came in above analyst expectations, contributing a few pennies to the company's earnings miss.
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A Sour Note To End 2010
Urban Outfitters did report 14% overall sales growth for the fourth quarter. That is pretty much it for the good news. That sales level was a bit below analyst expectations, and store comps were down 2% as transactions fell about 1%. On a slightly more encouraging note, sales comps were up 4% if direct-to-consumer sales are included.
To its credit, Urban Outfitters has managed to do what American Eagle (NYSE:AEO) and many other retailers have struggled to do - operate multiple successful brands. The core Urban Outfitters brand saw revenue increase 13% this quarter, with Anthropologie up 10% and Free People up 35%. URBN also has a successful direct-to-consumer business, and revenue here jumped 28%.
Turning back to bad news, the company saw gross margin shrink more than 2% as the company had to get more aggressive with markdowns to move product. SG&A growth matched sales, though, and the company saw operating income tick up 1% while operating margin fell more than 2%. Taxes also came in above analyst expectations, contributing a few pennies to the company's earnings miss.
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Monday, February 28, 2011
Investopedia: Can Chico's Be Chic Again?
Women's retailer Chico's (NYSE:CHS) was a great growth stock for almost a decade, profiting off its relatively fashionable offerings for working women and ability to differentiate itself from the likes of Gap (NYSE:GPS), Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD) as well as mall anchors like JCPenny (NYSE:JCP) and Dillards (NYSE:DDS). But then Chico's experienced what almost all retailers experience - merchandising missteps, overexpansion, questionable acquisitions and a customer base that just wants to shop somewhere else for a change.
The good news for retail investors is that there are certainly second acts in retailing (as well as third, and fourth). The question, though, is whether Chico's has whipped itself into shape in time to take advantage of an improving market. (For related reading see 5 Retail Stocks For 2011.)
An Iffy End to the Year
Chico's did not report especially exciting numbers for the fourth quarter, but the market was expecting worse so it all netted out to a "positive quarter", especially as the company gave encouraging sales growth guidance for fiscal 2011.
Please follow this link for the full piece:
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The good news for retail investors is that there are certainly second acts in retailing (as well as third, and fourth). The question, though, is whether Chico's has whipped itself into shape in time to take advantage of an improving market. (For related reading see 5 Retail Stocks For 2011.)
An Iffy End to the Year
Chico's did not report especially exciting numbers for the fourth quarter, but the market was expecting worse so it all netted out to a "positive quarter", especially as the company gave encouraging sales growth guidance for fiscal 2011.
Please follow this link for the full piece:
http://stocks.investopedia.
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