Alps Looking At A Steeper Climb For Growth In The Near Term

Alps Alpine (OTCPK:APELY) (6770.T) has been one of the most disappointing calls I’ve made in recent time, as the shares are down about one-third since my last article, with the company seeing even weaker than expected volumes for its camera actuators to go along with a general downturn in the auto sector. Making matters worse, actuator volumes aren’t likely to get better soon, while newer, higher value-added auto components aren’t likely to contribute meaningfully for a few years.

I’m not keen on doubling down on a bad call, but Alps Alpine does look undervalued even on what I believe to be conservative assumptions. Even with a weaker long-term addressable market in smartphones, I think the auto business can drive 2% to 3% long-term revenue growth, with mid-single-digit FCF margins supporting a fair value close to $45/ADR. Investors should note, though, that the ADRs are illiquid.

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Alps Looking At A Steeper Climb For Growth In The Near Term