Thursday, July 18, 2019

Weak Loan Growth And Tighter Spreads Pinching Commerce Bancshares

I haven’t been very bullish on Commerce Bancshares (CBSH), as I think the market assigns too high of a quality premium relative to this Midwestern bank’s lackluster growth profile and its-good-but-not-THAT-good credit quality. With the shares continuing to underperform the market and the sector since my last update, and second quarter results coming in weaker than I expected, I don’t really see much reason to change my core stance on the bank.

Commerce does have a lot of capital, too much really for its needs, and what management plans for that capital is a meaningful potential driver down the road. Whole bank acquisition would be an atypical move for this bank, but acquiring fee-generating businesses in the payments area is a possibility. As is, though, I think Commerce is an expensive, low-growth bank without even much of a dividend to pay for patience.

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Weak Loan Growth And Tighter Spreads Pinching Commerce Bancshares

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