Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Recession Today ... Depression Tomorrow?

So, we finally get word that we're officially in a recession. Gee, what a relief that it's "official", right?

One of the things I find interesting (and maybe ominous) about this is that the start of the recession was dated as December 2007. Given that I think we're going to bottom out in the spring of next year, that suggests we might actually get a technical "depression" -- after all, one of the definitions of depression is 18 months (or more) of recession.

Now, I don't care a whit about labels; labels work well on canned goods, but not so well on economic conditions. But I can't help but wonder what (if any) the impact on consumer confidence will be if newspapers start splashing "Officials: U.S. in Depression" on their headlines.

Don't get me wrong, I think the "blame the media" fad in the U.S. over the past 10 or 15 years is deplorable and idiotic. But it's foolish to think that constant repetition of a message doesn't ultimately lead a high percentage of the listeners toward accepting/believing it. So if people hear the word "depression", maybe they panic and spend even less.

Well, enough on this for now ... good luck to us all.

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