Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Constellation Brands: Executing Well And Gaining Share, With More To Come

My positive thesis on Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) back in August of 2021 was predicated on meaningful volume share growth potential for the company’s Modelo and Corona brands, as well as further improvement potential in the wine business, and this has played out well over the last 16 months, with Constellation continuing to gain share in the U.S. market, while the shares have outperformed (up almost 11%) other beer rivals like Molson Coors (TAP) (by 300bp), ABI (BUD) (by about 1,100bp), Heineken (OTCQX:HEINY) (by over 2,300bp), and Carlsberg (OTCPK:CABGY) (by about 2,700bp), as well as the broader consumer staples space.

Constellation is still under-leveraged on national distribution and under-leveraged to on-premises, but management continues to work at both, with evident progress over the last year (and beyond). While trade-down and tougher comps are an emerging risk, and I do see some margin vulnerability in the short term, Constellation still looks undervalued to me and worth a closer look.

 

Click the link for the full article: 

Constellation Brands: Executing Well And Gaining Share, With More To Come

Sensata Technologies Beaten And Battered By Macro And Margins, But Still Leveraged To Electrification

This has been another tough year for companies leveraged to the passenger vehicle market. The year started off with projections of mid-to-high single-digit unit growth in vehicles for the U.S. market, but semiconductor and component shortages have decimated that forecast, with actual year-to-date sales trending down about 9% (this is production-driven, as inventories are still thin). At the same time, electronic component shortages and other inflationary drivers have made life difficult on the margin side for many companies.

Sensata Technologies (NYSE:ST) has seen its share price fall a little more than 20% since my last update. While I suppose that’s not terrible next to other broadly comparable suppliers to the auto and commercial vehicle markets, including Aptiv (APTV), Dana (DAN), and TE Connectivity (TEL), it’s not the year I expected for this sensing and controls company, and 2023 isn’t offering much in the way of macro certainty.

I do think that Sensata looks undervalued, but I also thought that in the high-$50’s. Now Sensata is looking at a potentially softer auto demand environment, as well as weaker trends for highway/off-road business and industrial markets. Provided that mid-single-digit growth is still viable, which I believe it is given the company’s higher EV content and its growth opportunities elsewhere in electrification, these shares offer a worthwhile return at today’s price.

 

Read more here: 

Sensata Technologies Beaten And Battered By Macro And Margins, But Still Leveraged To Electrification

Hammered By Input And Launch Costs, Nidec Is Worth Another Look

The last year and a half has been a brutal one for Nidec (OTCPK:NJDCY) (6594.T), with the local shares down more than a third and the ADRs down closer to 50% since my last update. Nidec has been hit hard not only by a downturn in high-margin spindle motors for hard disk drives (or HDDs), but also much higher input costs and launch costs for its emerging EV auto business (e-axles). If that wasn’t bad enough, a weaker outlook for motors used in appliances and HVAC systems is also weighing on sentiment.

The investment case for Nidec used to be more of a battle about the right multiple to pay, as Nidec shares historically traded at rich multiples. While the sharp pullback has helped the longer-term valuation argument, the shares still remain pricey on more conventional short-term multiples-based approaches. While I do like Nidec’s leverage to vehicle electrification, a weaker market for consumer electronics could persist and Nidec has significant sentiment headwinds to overcome.

 

Follow this link for the full article: 

Hammered By Input And Launch Costs, Nidec Is Worth Another Look

Cognex Languishing Through A Painful Reset Of A Major Growth Market

It would have been difficult to be more wrong about Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX) than my call back in April that, despite challenges in the logistics market (warehouse automation), this machine vision company would still manage double-digit growth in 2022. In fact, Cognex is likely looking at not only a revenue decline in 2022, but quite possibly a decline in 2023 as well given weaker macro trends. With weaker end-market demand (and a fire at a manufacturing partner), Cognex is on pace for far less in terms of profitability and cash flow than I’d expected, and it may not be “business as usual” until 2024/2025.

Down about a third since my last ill-fated update, Cognex has been a notable laggard in an otherwise flattish market for other automation names like Datalogic (OTC:DLGCF), Fanuc (OTCPK:FANUY), Keyence (OTCPK:KYCCF), Rockwell (ROK), and Yaskawa (OTCPK:YASKY), though KION (OTCPK:KIGRY), another logistics-driven name, has been even weaker. While I do see long-term value in the name here, it’ll be difficult for sentiment to turn with logistics revenue likely down 20%-plus again in 2023, particularly if other end-markets weaken more than seems to be baked into sell-side expectations.

 

Continue here: 

Cognex Languishing Through A Painful Reset Of A Major Growth Market

High Costs And Macro Worries Drag Cemex Down

My bullish call on Cemex (NYSE:CX) in February was predicated on strong volumes and pricing in the U.S. driving better profits and cash flow, with a healthy outlook for increasing infrastructure spending supporting the longer-term view. While U.S. demand and pricing have both been healthy, the market has become considerably more nervous about 2023 and Cemex has fallen short on profitability, leading to a 20% drop in the stock price and underperformance in an admittedly lackluster cement sector (though Eagle (EXP), GCC, and Martin Marietta (MLM) have held up better).

I’m increasingly concerned about what look like structural cost issues at Cemex that seem likely to lead to longer-term underperformance in profitability. That said, I do think infrastructure demand is likely to remain quite supportive and today’s price seems to reflect an overly bearish outlook for the company. Management has most definitely not earned the benefit of the doubt here, but if the company can manage something on the order of 4% long-term EBITDA growth, I do think there is some value here.

 

Read the full article here: 

High Costs And Macro Worries Drag Cemex Down

Hancock Whitney Outperforming On Solid Execution And A Great Balance Sheet

I expected good things from Hancock Whitney (NASDAQ:HWC) in my last update on this Gulf Coast bank, and I haven’t been disappointed. While deposit outflows have been a little worse than I expected, deposit and loan betas have been quite strong and the company continues to execute well on costs. With that, the shares have outperformed since that last article, outperforming regional banks by more than 7% and bringing the year-to-date outperformance up to around 12%.

The only real negative I can’t point to here, apart from a deteriorating macro environment, is the valuation. Hancock Whitney has been doing well, but not well enough to drive substantial upside revisions to my numbers, and so the outperformance is chewing into some of the undervaluation I saw before. I’d rather own a more expensive high-quality bank than a cheaper low-quality bank, but investors probably shouldn’t expect much beyond a high single-digit to low double-digit return over the next year.

 

Click here to continue: 

Hancock Whitney Outperforming On Solid Execution And A Great Balance Sheet

Franklin Electric Offers Solutions To Long-Term Water Issues, But The Near Term Is More Challenging

This isn’t a particularly good time to be leveraged to residential construction, and while Franklin Electric (NASDAQ:FELE) offers better near-term leverage to ongoing demand for irrigation and dewatering, the prospect of weaker residential and below-ground fueling systems, not to mention ongoing supply/margin challenges, is weighing on the shares. Down about 5% since my last update, Franklin has more or less kept pace with the broader industrial sector, and staked out a middle ground between better-performing water stories like Xylem (XYL) and Lindsay (LNN) and weaker names like Mueller (MWA) and Zurn Elkay (ZWS).

The challenge in approaching Franklin Electric today is balancing out the near-term end-market weakness with above-average long-term potential, as well as a valuation that’s not so exceptional compared to industrials in general, but looks rather good compared to how the market has traditionally valued water plays.

 

Read more here: 

Franklin Electric Offers Solutions To Long-Term Water Issues, But The Near Term Is More Challenging

IDEX Rightly Appreciated For Its Excellent Credentials And Advantageous Market Exposures

I've talked about IDEX (NYSE:IEX) as a "best of breed" industrial in the past, and I continue to believe this is one of the best-run and best-positioned industrials out there. Management has shown that they can not only optimize operations but also execute successfully on tuck-in/bolt-on deals that build on existing strengths.

Since my last update, this has been one of the strongest stocks among the industrials I follow, with the shares up almost 25% and beating flat performance for the larger multi-industrial group, as well as other high-value "compounder" industrials like Ametek (AME), Danaher (DHR), Fortive (FTV), Nordson (NDSN), Rockwell (ROK), and Roper (ROP). This outperformance has been well-founded, with strong double-digit revenue growth and healthy margins, as well as broad-based strength in the business.

Valuation is my biggest issue. I realize some investors believe in buying quality and holding on irrespective of valuation, but I think entry prices matter, and it's tough to see how IDEX is substantially undervalued even given above-average growth potential in the coming years.

 

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha: 

IDEX Rightly Appreciated For Its Excellent Credentials And Advantageous Market Exposures

Silicon Labs: A Growth Story That Is Dented, And Maybe Delayed, But Not Derailed

“Buy the dip” is a piece of advice that can make investors a lot of money over time, but it’s also difficult advice to follow. Every once in a while there’s a market, sector, or stock-specific “freak out”, but more often than not, meaningful dips come with scarier changes in the near-term outlook. The Street being what it is, it’s not uncommon for those near-term changes to lead to big swings in long-term outlooks, estimates, and target prices, as many analysts seem to forget that cyclical stocks/industries cycle in both directions.

Since my last update, Silicon Labs (NASDAQ:SLAB) has outperformed the broader semiconductor space by about 15%, as the company has continued to post strong growth from its IoT-focused business. While there is growing evidence of an impending slowdown (echoed by other players in IoT), this hasn’t been outside of my expectations. I do see elevated risk to sentiment and near-term estimates, but I also think Silicon Labs is trading at a pretty attractive valuation relative to how growth semiconductor stocks typically trade.

 

Follow this link for the full article: 

Silicon Labs: A Growth Story That Is Dented, And Maybe Delayed, But Not Derailed

Valley National Bank Trying To Turn Over A New Leaf

Valley National Bank (NASDAQ:VLY) is still trying to put a lackluster performance and total return history behind it. Since a CEO change at the end of 2017, the company has made meaningful progress on operating efficiency and has seen some acceleration in tangible book value growth, but challenges remain. Despite a fairly strong return on tangible common equity, the bank’s acquisitive behavior continues to sit poorly with many analysts and investors, and the company’s efforts to drive a more balanced mix of organic and acquired growth are still relatively new and unproven.

I like the strategy Valley National is following now, and I think the Bank Leumi deal may be a better long-term opportunity for the company than is reflected in the share price, as I think a larger private banking operation (somewhat similar to First Republic (FRC)) and a larger national specialty commercial lending franchise (somewhat similar to First Citizens (FCNCA)) can both create value. Still, I’m worried about the short-term profit outlook given the bank’s need to raise higher-cost deposits and the Street’s penchant for short-term thinking. Valuation is interesting at today’s level but there are a lot of banks trading at “interesting” valuations, and sentiment remains a concern for me.

 

Read the full article here: 

Valley National Bank Trying To Turn Over A New Leaf

Texas Capital Bancshares: A Sound Long-Term Transformation Plan, But Vulnerable In The Near Term

Writing about Texas Capital Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBI) in February, I said that while I was bullish on the long-term strategic transformation plan put in place by the new CEO, I saw a “better than average” chance that the bank would underperform in the near term given the bank’s high deposit beta and willingness to invest opex into the transformation of the business. That’s largely played out this year as I expected, though I’m honestly a little surprised that the shares are only down a bit more than regional banking peers given the steeper pace of deposit cost growth.

I still see Texas Capital as a short-term/long-term puzzle I do like the CEO’s vision for what the bank should be – focused on commercial lending, with stronger investment banking, trading, and treasury options to drive fee income and stickier relationships – but it will take time to get there. In the meantime, I see elevated operating risk on higher deposit costs and weaker operating leverage. Investors unsure of their ability to time a turn in sentiment for banks may want to consider buying or holding the shares now, but there could be better entry points over the next year.

 

Continue reading the article here: 

Texas Capital Bancshares: A Sound Long-Term Transformation Plan, But Vulnerable In The Near Term

Friday, December 9, 2022

Turkcell Continues To Execute Well, But Macro Remains An Uncontrollable Risk

I believe I’ve been fair, if not effusive, in my praise of Turkcell (NYSE:TKC) management, and nothing has changed since my last article on this leading Turkish telecom provider to change my view. Management continues to do a good job of navigating a difficult inflationary environment (running at around 85%/year), as well as keeping the company ahead of rivals and continuing to reinvest in the long-term growth potential of the business.

While I thought the challenging macro environment in Turkey would mitigate potential gains in the share price, I’m happy to say I was wrong – Turkcell shares have risen more than a quarter since my last update, a strong performance against a backdrop of largely negative emerging market telco performances over that time. While the shares still look undervalued, the challenges of modeling in a high-inflation environment are considerable and ongoing erosion in the value of the Turkish lira remains a real risk.

 

Continue reading at Seeking Alpha: 

Turkcell Continues To Execute Well, But Macro Remains An Uncontrollable Risk

BorgWarner Making More Progress Than The Share Price Shows

This has been a tougher-than-expected year for auto suppliers, as component availability (particularly semiconductors) has continued to impact production schedules, leading to lower-than-expected volumes and margin headwinds from inefficient production schedules, compounded by ongoing inflationary pressures on inputs. Despite those challenges, BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA) has done better than many peers relative to expectations, and management has kept the company on track with respect to building out its capabilities in electrification.

BorgWarner shares have lost about 5% of their value since my last update, a disappointing result, though still better than the S&P 500 and better than many peers/rivals like Faurecia (OTCPK:FURCF), Valeo (OTCPK:VLEEY), Aptiv (APTV), Lear (LEA), and Dana (DAN), though trailing American Axle (AXL) and Vitesco (OTCPK:VTSCY). While I do still believe that BorgWarner is meaningfully undervalued, a weaker consumer spending backdrop for 2023 isn't helping near-term sentiment, and significant ongoing questions remain about the long-term market share and profitability of BorgWarner's EV-based businesses.

 

Continue here: 

BorgWarner Making More Progress Than The Share Price Shows

For Broadcom, Outperformance Is Just Another Day At The Office

In the not-always-rational world of Wall Street, I'm actually a little surprised that the Street hasn't adopted more of an expectation of ongoing beat-and-raise quarters from Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). Then again, given that outlooks are withering at many peer semiconductor companies, I suppose that there's little inclination to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Broadcom shares have rebounded about 20% since my last update on the company (only about a month and a half ago), and while that is better than the performance of the SOX index (up about 16%) and certain select peers (like Marvell (MRVL)), a few like Microchip (MCHP) and NVIDIA (NVDA) have done even better. Pull the comparisons out a year, though, and Broadcom is handily outperforming all of those except Microchip (which it has outperformed, but not by a wide margin).

I still view Broadcom as a core holding. I love the company's leverage to high-end networking/data center demand for connectivity and AI acceleration, as well as leverage to home broadband, and I believe businesses like wireless, storage, and software are still more than worthwhile over the longer term. Roughly 20% below my fair value estimate and priced for a high single-digit long-term annualized return, this remains an attractive idea in my view.

 

Read the full article here: 

For Broadcom, Outperformance Is Just Another Day At The Office

Ciena Spikes On Improving Supply, And The Backlog Remains Robust

Supply chain issues hamstrung Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) throughout its fiscal 2022 year, as the company couldn't get the chips and other components it needed to fulfill robust orders from telco, enterprise, and cable companies. The fiscal fourth quarter was a different story, though, as the company was finally able to fulfill more of its component needs, allowing for a double-digit sequential growth rate in its core networking equipment business.

Ciena shares spiked about 20% on the strong fourth quarter beat and management's guidance for FY'23, but the company isn't completely out of the woods yet where margin recovery is concerned. Even so, I believe the shares remain undervalued with more visibility on mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth (stronger over the next few years) and a sustained margin recovery, not to mention share growth in its core markets and expansion into meaningful new adjacent markets.

 

Read the full article here: 

Ciena Spikes On Improving Supply, And The Backlog Remains Robust

Why JPMorgan Is Still A Good SWAN Option

The Street has gotten much more concerned about funding costs and credit quality with banks in recent months, and that seems to be benefitting JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM). While JPMorgan isn’t immune to deposit/funding cost pressures, nor worsening credit quality, this top-tier bank is relatively well-positioned compared to its peers and concerns about operating leverage and capital requirements are starting to fade.

JPMorgan shares are up almost 20% since my last update, leading the way among the large banks that could reasonably be considered peers. With that outperformance, and the risk that net interest income could reach a peak in the next quarter or two, it’s harder to argue for JPMorgan’s near-term outperformance potential, but I do still see a worthwhile longer-term total return opportunity here. What’s more, if the economy weakens even more than I expect and sees a hard/harder landing scenario play out, I believe JPMorgan will fare better than most.

Read the full article here: 

Why JPMorgan Is Still A Good SWAN Option

First Republic Paying A Steep Cost For Growth

Using pullbacks to pick up shares of well-run companies is usually a good strategy over the long term, but it has absolutely not been working with First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) here of late. This bank is choosing to prioritize long-term growth over short-term profits, steering into rapidly-rising funding costs to continue acquiring customers and grow the loan book. While I believe this will prove to be a sound decision over the long term, it has hammered the near-term earnings prospects and valuation.

The shares have fallen another 25% since my last update (and over 40% since I flipped from neutral to positive in mid-2021), dramatically underperforming its peer group. I've underestimated just how willing this bank would be to pay the short-term costs for long-term growth, but I do still believe in the longer-term story here. I think the shares remain undervalued, but I could see sentiment and near-term earnings pressure weighing on the stock at least through mid-2023, given where we are in the rate cycle.

 

Click the link to continue: 

First Republic Paying A Steep Cost For Growth

Lexicon Continues To Drift Ahead Of An Expected FDA Approval And A High-Risk Commercialization Effort

The biotech sector has stabilized since a summer rally, but it is still a difficult market for smaller biotechs, and particularly those that the market is likely to need substantial further funding (which, honestly, is most of them…). That's a challenging enough backdrop for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:LXRX) before considering challenges/issues like building a sales infrastructure to support the launch of sotagliflozin in congestive heart failure and the uncertain clinical and financial pathway for its pain drug LX9211.

My feelings on Lexicon remain mixed since I wrote in July. I do see significant commercial potential for sotagliflozin based upon the size of the market and the clinical efficacy of the drug, but the challenges of building a go-it-alone marketing infrastructure capable of maximizing the opportunity are not at all trivial. Likewise, I'm encouraged by the potential of LX9211, but there's still a long road ahead to realizing that potential. I think a fair value estimate of $5.50/share is valid, but this remains a high-risk/high-reward sort of opportunity.

 

Read more here: 

Lexicon Continues To Drift Ahead Of An Expected FDA Approval And A High-Risk Commercialization Effort

Brown-Forman: Not A Compelling Idea - Softening Volumes, Weaker Margins, And High Valuation

Unexpectedly stronger headwinds from foreign exchange and input costs aren't exactly unusual today, but they are combining to make life more challenging for Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.A)(NYSE:BF.B). On top of that, the underlying volumes in spirits aren't really that exceptional and the stock remains richly-valued by most approaches.

These shares are down around 10% since my last update, underperforming consumer staples (the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)) overall and names I preferred back in the day like Diageo (DEO) (that article is here) and Pernod Ricard (OTCPK:PRNDY) (that article is here). Still, while the long-term returns haven't been bad at all (a double-digit annualized total return over the last 10 and 15 years), the valuation today is no clear bargain to me, and I don't really find this a compelling idea even after the sharp post-earnings reaction.


Read the full article here: 

Brown-Forman: Not A Compelling Idea - Softening Volumes, Weaker Margins, And High Valuation

NRG Energy And Vivint: Paying For Transformation, The Street Prefers Buybacks

It would seem that the Street is far from convinced about the ongoing restructuring and business transformation efforts at NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NRG), and the latest move – the $2.8B deal for Vivint Smart Home, Inc. (NYSE:VVNT) – is doing nothing to ease that anxiety. The shares fell about 15% on the deal announcement, continuing a trend of sharp moves between the mid-$20s and mid-$40s over the last five years as the Street tries to dial in the long-term cash flow consequences of management’s ongoing business transformation efforts.

I can understand why at least some investors would prefer the certain accretion of buybacks over another M&A transaction that brings integration and execution risk. I believe further transformation is necessary, though, and I favor using cash flow to build up (or perhaps shore up) the company’s future prospects and cash flow generation capabilities, so I see this as a short-term versus long-term debate. I do think the selloff makes the shares more interesting, but I do also see ongoing execution risk here.

 

Click the link for the full article: 

NRG Energy And Vivint: Paying For Transformation, The Street Prefers Buybacks

Unifi Hit By A Sharp Downturn In Orders, But It Doesn't Unravel The Long-Term Story

Weaker retail sales and record-high retailer inventories has led to a sharp reversal in fortunes for Unifi (NYSE:UFI), as this leading producer of recycled polyester yarns has seen a sudden and sharp downturn in volumes this year. That downturn has not only thrown management’s guidance for FY’23 out of the window, but also likely put the company’s former FY’25 goals ($1.1B in revenue, 10%-plus EBITDA margin) out of reach.

This has had a massive negative impact on the share price, with the stock down more than 50% since my last update on the company. This is a huge setback, but I do note that the company is still leveraged to an ongoing trend among major retailers to shift to recycled polyesters and this inventory issue with retail and apparel customers will resolve over the next few quarters. Even with a sharp revision to near-term financials, I still believe there is a bullish case to be made for the shares, though it will take some time to recoup the losses seen in 2022.

 

Read more here: 

Unifi Hit By A Sharp Downturn In Orders, But It Doesn't Unravel The Long-Term Story

Enovis Drifting In A Med-Tech No Man's Land

There’s no definitive rule about what works in med-tech, but companies that combine good-but-not-great revenue growth (below the double-digits) and good-but-not-great EBITDA margins (below the mid-20%’s) can often drift in a sort of valuation no man’s land where the shares can struggle to rerate meaningfully higher. That may be at least part of what’s hurting the share price performance of Enovis (NYSE:ENOV), as the company is an odd mix of business segments with varying growth prospects.

I wasn’t overly fond of Enovis at the time of the Enovis-ESAB (ESAB) separation, and the 20% or so drop in the share price since then hasn’t made me regret that position. I have been impressed with the performance of the Reconstructive business, but I continue to believe that management’s expectations and targets for the Prevention & Recovery business, and the business as a whole, could still be too high. What’s more, I think the lack of “pure-play” leverage to more attractive growth markets could make the stock a harder sell with institutional investors.

 

Read the full article here: 

Enovis Drifting In A Med-Tech No Man's Land

Sonova Seeing Strong Execution Collide With Macro Uncertainties

Sonova Holding (OTCPK:SONVF) (OTCPK:SONVY) (SOON.SW) has built an enviable track record in the hearing care space. Not only has the company built upon its leading position in the hearing aid market over the past decade (now holding around one-third share), but the company generates strong margins, cash flows, and return metrics like ROIC. Now that legacy of operational excellence is colliding with some meaningful end-market uncertainties, as the 2023 macro-outlook deteriorates and the company will be coping with a new regulatory environment in the key U.S. hearing aid market.

I’m expecting high single-digit revenue growth from Sonova over the next three to five years, slowing toward a 5% to 6% growth rate over the longer term, and I’m expecting EBITDA margins to expand into the low-to-mid-30%s over the next few years. Between discounted cash flow and growth/margin-driven EV/revenue, I do think these shares offer enough upside to merit a closer look from investors.

 

Click here to continue: 

Sonova Seeing Strong Execution Collide With Macro Uncertainties

Zimmer Biomet's Valuation Offset By Lackluster Growth And Limited Near-Term Margin Leverage

Medical procedure volumes are gradually improving toward pre-pandemic levels, despite ongoing challenges with hospital staffing issues, and it’s time for Zimmer Biomet (NYSE:ZBH) to start delivering on the promises it has been making regarding leveraging R&D and improved go-to-market strategies to gain share in the ortho markets it serves and drive both attractive revenue growth and margin expansion.

I didn’t find a particularly compelling risk/reward opportunity with the shares when I last wrote about the company in early February of 2021, and with the shares down almost 25% since then (underperforming peers like Stryker (SYK) and the broader med-tech space), I don’t feel like I’ve missed out on much. While there have been signs of progress here and there, the reality is that the company’s performance in the ortho space on a two-year stack shows share loss in major joints.

I don’t think the valuation is particularly demanding if Zimmer can generate around 3% long-term revenue growth, mid-30%’s EBITDA margins, and high single-digit FCF growth. The real question, though, is whether or not the company can generate the sort of differentiated growth that will get investors to take a closer look – low-growth med-tech is a tough set-up for making money and I do have concerns that this could be a value trap.

 

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha: 

Zimmer Biomet's Valuation Offset By Lackluster Growth And Limited Near-Term Margin Leverage

AngioDynamics Now Finds Itself Deep In The Street's Doghouse

In terms of investor sentiment, it’s basically back to square one for AngioDynamics (NASDAQ:ANGO) after a fiscal first quarter where the reported numbers weren’t quite that awful, but where management commentary on several subjects cast a pall over the company’s near-term prospects.

The shares are down more than a third since my last update on the company, lagging Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) and Inari (NARI) by a wide margin, and lagging Penumbra (PEN) by an exceptionally large margin. It’s difficult to recommend the shares here, as value stories in small-cap med-tech don’t often work out well and many of the issues pressuring sentiment won’t resolve quickly. I do think today’s price undervalues the business as a going concern, but I don’t see a high likelihood of M&A interest and the company’s combination of sub-10% revenue growth and single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin is far from compelling.


Read the full article here: 

AngioDynamics Now Finds Itself Deep In The Street's Doghouse

PNC Financial Has A Better Mix Of Drivers In A Sector That's Still Off Its Highs

The bank sector has done a little better since my last update on PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), but the story remains pretty similar – investors are favoring smaller “Main Street” banks that they believe have better rate leverage, stickier deposits, better prospects for loan growth, and more benign capital requirements. As a more Main Street-type bank than many of its large peers, PNC has continued to outperform, beating the large bank group and the S&P 500 since my last article, but underperforming smaller regional banks.

This is an interesting time to evaluate PNC’s investment prospects. The valuation doesn’t stand out as exceptional relative to many other large banks (not to mention many smaller banks), but I like PNC’s skew to commercial lending and its strong credit quality history. If the economy does better than expected next year, PNC will likely be a laggard, but PNC is a good option for investors who may have a less robust outlook for 2023, but still want some bank exposure. I’d also note that in terms of P/TBV, P/E, and so on, PNC is trading below longer-term averages.

 

Follow this link to the full article: 

PNC Financial Has A Better Mix Of Drivers In A Sector That's Still Off Its Highs

Pinnacle Financial Partners Undervalued, But Arguably Out Of Step With A Nervous Market

Pinnacle Financial Partners (NASDAQ:PNFP) has been an underperformer since my last update on this fast-growing Southeastern bank. While sentiment on banks in general hasn’t been great, and several notable growth banks (First Republic (FRC), Signature (SBNY), and SVB Financial (SIVB)) have seen even worse performance, the nearly 15% decline in Pinnacle is disappointing in the context of ongoing execution of a well-founded model with a long runway for growth.

I can come up with at least a few reasons for some weakness in Pinnacle shares – the bank’s above-average deposit beta, aggressive opex spending growth, and dependence on loan growth among them – but even against a tougher backdrop for 2023/24, I think the shares still look attractive for growth-oriented investors willing to take on additional risk in pursuit of above-average returns.

 

Click here to continue reading: 

Pinnacle Financial Partners Undervalued, But Arguably Out Of Step With A Nervous Market

U.S. Bancorp: Valuation And A Vanishing Deal Overhang Should Help Address Underperformance

Once one of the most well-regarded banks among the large-caps, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) hasn’t seen the same enthusiasm from investors in recent years and the shares have lagged their peers not only over the last year, but the last three, five, and 10 years as well (as well as since my last update). The bank doesn’t stand out versus its peers on metrics like ROTCE and core pre-provision profit margins like it once did, but the bank is still solidly above-average in most of the drivers that matter.

U.S. Bancorp has the “Main Street banking” exposure I still favor, but the bank’s leverage to corporate payments and merchant processing could be a near-term weakness if the economy slows more than expected, and I’m likewise still concerned about the bank’s deposit leverage through this next phase of the cycle. On the other hand, closing the Union Bank deal should relieve at least one sentiment overhang, and I think the shares are priced for a sub-2% core earnings growth rate that I believe the bank should be able to beat by a decent margin in the years to come.


Read the full article here: 

U.S. Bancorp: Valuation And A Vanishing Deal Overhang Should Help Address Underperformance

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

American Eagle: Good Management In A Worsening Macro Environment

It’s true that adverse macro conditions don’t impact all companies equally, but for a company of American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.’s (NYSE:AEO) size, there’s not much it can do to escape an increasingly difficult macro environment. I’ve been impressed with management’s efforts in merchandising in the past, as well as their efforts to optimize inventory and supply chain and store operating costs (including optimizing the footprint). That can still help in an environment of double-digit declines in teen retail spending and a potentially oncoming recession.

It's been a while since I’ve written on American Eagle, and at the time of my last article, I didn’t like the valuation or risk-reward balance. Down about 50% since then, I’m more positive on the shares from a valuation point of view, but I do still have concerns about the macro environment - even the best house on the block is at risk if the neighborhood is on fire. Mid-single-digit revenue growth and mid-single-digit free cash flow margins can support a long-term annualized return of around 10%, but investors need to be willing to wait out a few more quarters of pressured results.

 

Read more here: 

American Eagle: Good Management In A Worsening Macro Environment

Bank Of N.T. Butterfield & Son Underfollowed And Undervalued, Perhaps Capped On Growth

Despite rising rates, healthy results, uncertainty around the U.S. banking sector, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NYSE:NTB) (“Butterfield”) really hasn’t been able to catch investor attention. Down about 13% over the past year, underperforming U.S. regional banks, Butterfield’s underperformance seems unusual other than perhaps in the context of limited sell-side support and perceptions that the bank’s growth could be capped by its conservative management approach and very limited geographic footprint in the tax havens of Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and Channel Islands.

It's been quite a while since I last covered Butterfield, and since that last article the shares have more or less performed in line with the regional bank index. Low-to-mid single-digit core earnings growth should be enough to support a fair value above $40 today, but growth investors may regard this bank as too limited in its growth prospects to merit interest and more conservative value-oriented investors may be put off by the perception of elevated operating and regulatory risk, putting it in a sort-of investment twilight zone.

 

Continue reading here: 

Bank Of N.T. Butterfield & Son Underfollowed And Undervalued, Perhaps Capped On Growth

A Deere In The Spotlight

Investors are understandably nervous about 2023, as more and more companies are pointing to weakening trends and a more sober outlook for the next year. Heavy machinery is no exception, with investors concerned that strong backlogs will give way to weaker order trends and that a recent run of outperformance over other industrials will come to an end.

Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) has been stronger than most over the last two years, driven not only by strong demand for agricultural and construction machinery, but also self-help like growing precision ag and tech-driven ag businesses and margin improvement/efficiency efforts that have led to higher full-cycle margin projections. Valuation is not particularly cheap here, but if Deere can provide a strong beat-and-raise quarter with guidance to double-digit growth in FY’23, Deere could continue to outperform a while longer on the basis of its differentiated growth profile.

 Click the link to continue: 

A Deere In The Spotlight

JELD-WEN Struggling Now And Demand Could Erode Further Next Year

The manufactured building materials sector has admittedly seen some poor performers over the last two years despite strong residential and non-residential activity, but JELD-WEN (NYSE:JELD) (“Jeld-Wen”) nevertheless stands out with particularly poor performances on growth, margins, returns (ROIC, et al), and share price performance. Double-digit price increases haven’t been enough to offset steep cost inflation, and now the company is going into a period where underlying demand could well be noticeably weaker. On top of all that, whenever the company names its next permanent CEO, that will be the fourth such appointment in nine years – not a mark of stability.

When shares of a company like Jeld-Wen look cheap, it’s fair to ask yourself whether you’re underestimating just how tough things really or whether the market has overreacted and left the stock for dead. In many cases the answer can be “both”, and that could be the case here. I don’t feel like forward revenue growth of 3% to 4% and free cash flow margins in the 3% to 4% range are especially aggressive assumptions, but if pricing normalizes, they could well prove too aggressive and whatever undervaluation I see here could vanish quickly.

 

Read more here:

 JELD-WEN Struggling Now And Demand Could Erode Further Next Year

Beacon Roofing Supply Making The Most Of Boom Times, But The Next Phase Could Be Tougher

Credit where due - Beacon Roofing Supply (NASDAQ:BECN) management has made the most of the fortunate situation they've found themselves in over the past couple of years. Healthy building activity has combined with incredibly strong pricing power to drive revenue, while steady margin improvement efforts have helped to offset the company's own cost inflation pressures. At a more bottom line level, not only has the company's debt situation improved significantly, but the company has also been able to return cash to shareholders through accelerated buybacks.

What comes next is the tricky bit - it's easy to climb onto the roof, but getting down can be more treacherous, and I do see some risk that expectations for 2023 are too high against a weakening macro backdrop. Likewise, management's own internal margin improvement targets may be too ambitious in the context of a less supportive end-market environment. The valuation already anticipates a lot of this, but I'd be cautious about buying in at this point in the cycle.

 

Click the link to continue: 

Beacon Roofing Supply Making The Most Of Boom Times, But The Next Phase Could Be Tougher

Brady Has An Opportunity To Be More Than It Has Been, But Execution Is Uncertain

Can Brady (NYSE:BRC) be more than it has been?

This company hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on a long-term basis. Despite rather strong margins and ROIC, the company hasn’t really been able to find growth – since 2000 revenue has grown at an annualized rate of 4%, while EBTIDA has grown about 4.6%. Adjusted free cash flow has done better (up around 7.5%), but the stock performance tells the tale – the shares have lagged the market and the industrial sector on an extended basis, with a 10-year annualized return around 6%.

That’s not an inspiring backdrop, but the company has been actively cutting costs and streamlining its portfolio, and management seems to appreciate the need to find growth opportunities and is targeting some logical areas that I think could hold some promise. I can’t say I love this company, but if it can deliver on what I think are pretty low expectations, I can definitely see upside from here.

 

Read more here: 

Brady Has An Opportunity To Be More Than It Has Been, But Execution Is Uncertain

Bank Of America Still Has The Credentials To Outperform

I’ve liked Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) (“B of A”) for over a year now, and while regional banks have lived up to my expectation of outperformance versus the money center banks, Bank of America has still done well on a relative basis – and “relative” is an important caveat here, as bank stocks have taken some hits this year despite the prospect of strong earnings growth in 2023. Since my last update, the shares have beaten large bank peers by about 10%, and have outperformed them by about 5% this year.

I continue to like this bank’s blended exposure to both money center banking and Main Street banking trends, including its improving performance in trading and its strong rate sensitivity. While I do think a weaker macro background for 2023 remains a threat, I believe B of A is capable of mid-single-digit long-term core earnings growth and that such growth (as well as near-term earnings and ROTCE) support a fair value in the low-to-mid-$40’s.

 

Continue to the full article here: 

Bank Of America Still Has The Credentials To Outperform

Litigation And Economic Cycles Dominate The 3M Discussion, But There Are Longer-Term Growth Issues To Consider

There's really not much positive to say about 3M (NYSE:MMM) since my last update on the company. Even against a backdrop of low expectations, the company has managed to come up short, with weaker-than-expected results in businesses tied to consumer electronics and healthcare. On top of that, the company has seen some adverse legal judgements, albeit these are early-stage rulings that aren't likely to fundamentally alter the picture.

My issues with 3M still run deeper than all of this. I praised the company in my last article for finally taking some value-building steps (spinning off Health Care and attempting to ring-fence some of its legal liabilities), but the fact remains that the company has been painfully reticent to reposition itself for the future and is increasingly looking like a short-cycle cyclical focused on squeezing margin and cash flow out of legacy businesses.

Down a bit since my last update, 3M has continued to underperform the industrial group, and while there are a few worse performers out there (Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) comes to mind), there aren't many. I do see some relative value here, and the dividend is good, but I'm still quite concerned that management seems to have little vision for the future beyond "that worked in the past … so let's do that again".

 

Read the full article here: 

Litigation And Economic Cycles Dominate The 3M Discussion, But There Are Longer-Term Growth Issues To Consider

Woodward Buffeted By Turbulence On Multiple Sides, But Results Should Improve

It seems at times that Woodward (NASDAQ:WWD) just can’t get a break. Long a leader in complex control systems and components that play essential roles in aviation propulsion and actuation, Woodward invested meaningful sums between 2013 and 2019 to add capacity in anticipation of a significant commercial aerospace ramp… only to get kicked in the head by the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary collapse of the commercial aviation market. Then, more recently, as commercial aviation has started to recover, Woodward has found itself hamstrung by component and labor issues, as well as component/production difficulties at other suppliers that have led to some disappointments in commercial build-rates.

I look at Woodward’s leverage to the aviation recovery, and I think management has a fairly realistic (if not conservative) view on how build-rates will reaccelerate. I like the company’s industrial business in general, though the near-term outlook is shakier given ongoing issues in China. Trading at close to $100, I don’t see tremendous fundamental undervaluation, but I do acknowledge that this is a stock that could rerate more strongly as aviation builds accelerate and margins expand.

 

Follow this link for the full article: 

Woodward Buffeted By Turbulence On Multiple Sides, But Results Should Improve

Free To Set Its Own Course, ESAB Is Running Into Some Cyclical Worries

Writing about the Enovis (ENOV) / ESAB (NYSE:ESAB) split back in April, I said that I was more interested in ESAB, as I thought this welding company had often gone underappreciated and under-supported within the dubious conglomerate operations of what used to be Colfax. The performance since then has done nothing to change my mind about that, as ESAB has done reasonably well for itself as an independent company, though it still carries some of the burdens of past issues created by Colfax.

ESAB shares have lost about 10% of their value over that time, trailing Lincoln Electric (LECO) and the broader industrial space, but outperforming many other short-cycle industrials like Kennametal (KMT) and Sandvik (OTCPK:SDVKY) as investors grow increasingly nervous about a short-cycle rollover in 2023. I don’t think this is the best set-up for ESAB, as short-cycle industrial and construction markets could weaken in 2023, but I do think there is underappreciated value and potential in this business.

 

The full article is available at Seeking Alpha: 

Free To Set Its Own Course, ESAB Is Running Into Some Cyclical Worries

Middleby Singed By Margin Weakness

Commercial kitchens and food processors are eager to increase capacity and contain (if not reduce) costs, and automation is a key part of that process. That’s very good news for Middleby (NASDAQ:MIDD), but strong demand from restaurants and foodservice customers is being offset by intense cost pressure, as well as emerging weakness in the residential business.

The valuation wasn’t great, but I thought Middleby was setting up as a “buy the dip” opportunity back in early March. That was absolutely the wrong call, as the shares have remained weak ever since, dropping around 17% and underperforming the market. There aren’t many good comps anymore, as most of Middleby’s competitors are part of larger conglomerates, but neither Marel (OTCPK:MRRLF) or Rational (OTCPK:RATIY) have been all that strong of late either.

 

Read more here: 

Middleby Singed By Margin Weakness

Donaldson Delivering, And Updated Guidance For FY'23 Could Be A Catalyst

I’ve liked filtration specialist Donaldson (NYSE:DCI) for a while now, and not only are the shares up about 15% since my last update (handily beating the broader market and the industrial sector), they’ve continued to beat the market (and the industrial group) since my initial write-up for Seeking Alpha. The thesis then and now was maximizing the value of the legacy heavy machinery and industrial filtration businesses while exploring opportunities to extend those core competencies into new markets like food/beverage, life sciences, and other process markets where filtration is important (and acquire new, complementary, competencies through M&A along the way).

I’ll be very curious to see what management says about guidance when it reports fiscal first quarter earnings later this month. The initial guide for FY’23 back in August surprised the Street with its conservatism, and the recent earnings/guidance calls from heavy machinery companies have been relatively good. Moreover, at a time when many short-cycle businesses are starting to roll over, many heavy machinery companies are carrying good backlogs into 2023 and underlying activity/utilization is still healthy.

With the shares performing well, I don’t see as much undervaluation here. I think the shares are still priced for long-term annualized returns in the high single-digits (around 8%), but near-term upside looks capped at around the mid-$60’s without a stronger outlook. There are worse things than owning a good company at a reasonable price, but there are more options now for investors and I’m not as inclined to chase Donaldson.

 

To continue reading, click the link: 

Donaldson Delivering, And Updated Guidance For FY'23 Could Be A Catalyst

Globus Medical Showing Some Reacceleration And Innovation Can Continue To Drive Growth

Procedure volumes aren’t yet back to normal in spinal surgery, but the market continues to reward innovation and Globus Medical (NYSE:GMED) is reaping the benefits, as the company started to separate itself from the pack again in the third quarter. Further down the road, Excelsius still holds meaningful growth potential, as do the company’s efforts in trauma and robot-assisted joint reconstruction.

Globus has declined about 5% since my last update, but that’s still better than the market’s performance and the performance of the broader medical device sector (down about 15%), not to mention other ortho competitors like NuVasive (NUVA), Stryker (SYK), and Zimmer Biomet (ZBH). Valuation is more debatable without a more sustained recovery in procedure volumes, but I still see Globus as a long-term innovation-driven winner in the ortho space.

 

Read the full article: 

Globus Medical Showing Some Reacceleration And Innovation Can Continue To Drive Growth

Haemonetics Leveraging Strong Recovery Trends And Repositioning For The Future

Companies facing markets in long-term decline have a few choices – pretend it’s not happening, consign themselves to riding it as long as they can, or harvest what they can and build toward a future based on new markets. It’s debatable as to whether plasma collection is a market truly in long-term decline, but with the growing investment in oligonucleotide therapies, gene therapies, and cell therapies targeting ailments treated with plasma-derived therapies, I believe Haemonetics (NYSE:HAE) is making the right strategic choice by reinvesting in growth opportunities like vascular closure within its Hospital business.

Haemonetics is likely looking at strong plasma center demand for many more years, and I find the margin improvement plans to be credible. At the same time, management will be directing free cash flow into supporting organic growth opportunities and pursuing diversification and new growth through M&A. Haemonetics shares have been strong over the past year, but if double-digit growth over the next five years and longer-term growth in the high single-digits is attainable, the shares aren’t yet overvalued.

 

Click the link to continue: 

Haemonetics Leveraging Strong Recovery Trends And Repositioning For The Future