Thursday, May 16, 2013

Investopedia: Cisco Comes Through, But Times Are Still Tough

With so many negative earnings reports for the first quarter, expectations for Cisco's (Nasdaq:CSCO) quarter were pretty modest. As a good company should, Cisco came through with a solid quarter and signs of share gain in multiple markets. That said, while I do believe Cisco is still undervalued, investors might want to exercise some caution before piling back into tech stocks.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051613/cisco-comes-through-times-are-still-tough-csco-jnpr-arun-ntap.aspx

Investopedia: Kohl's Could Work For A Trade, But It's In A Brutal Business

Retailers have to try to pick winners, and whenever a company builds its model upon picking winners it's just a matter of “when” (not “if”) the company stumbles. Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) did a lot of things right in building up its 1,150-store chain of value-oriented specialty department stores, but execution has been more problematic recently. Conventional valuation metrics suggest Kohl's could have further to run if/when the reported numbers improve, but investors thinking long term should be wary of the cash flow model and the ability of any company to establish long-term competitive edges in retailing.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051613/kohls-could-work-trade-its-brutal-business-kss-jcp-gman-m-sks.aspx

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Investopedia: If You Don't Mind Volatility, Deere Could Still Do Alright

Deere (NYSE:DE) is a curious stock. It seems all too common for investors to bid these shares up into earnings (up about 12% this time), only to be disappointed when management's guidance sounds more conservative than they wanted. And yet, more often than not, the company does fine (or better) the next time around. While this pattern can be frustrating for investors who get stomach aches over the week to week moves in their portfolio, it's an opportunity for investors to make entries (or exits) at better prices.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051513/if-you-dont-mind-volatility-deere-could-still-do-alright-de-cat-agco-cnh.aspx

Investopedia: Investors Already Thinking Recovery For Cummins

Seeing as it is no simple task to find a company with the right mix of good management, competitive products, and attractive long-term markets, I understand why investors are slow to give up on companies that feature these attributes. All the same, it looks like the Street has already looked past this lull in Cummins' (NYSE:CMI) business. Not only is the stock up about 15% over the past year and within 10% of its all-time high, but today's valuation already presumes a pretty solid future outlook with respect to growth.

Read more about Cummins here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051513/investors-already-thinking-recovery-cummins-cmi-cat-nav-volvy-etn.aspx

Investopedia: Agilent Isn't Making It Easy On Investors

It's getting harder for me not to view Agilent (NYSE:A) as something like the store-brand version of Danaher (NYSE:DHR). It's cheaper and pretty close to the real thing, but it's just not quite the same and sometimes those differences leave you walking away unsatisified. To be sure, I think Agilent could do a lot to close this gap, but I'm not sure they will. Consequently, while Agilent is a little bit undervalued, it's harder for me to be as enthusiastic about buying shares today – particularly when Danaher seems undervalued to a similar degree.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051513/agilent-isnt-making-it-easy-investors-dhr-ter-nati-wat.aspx

Investopedia: BP Looks Cheap, But A Lot Of Improvements Have To Come Through

The energy sector has been in a rut for a while now. Despite some decent one-off performances, energy screens as one of the worst performers over the year-to-date, one-year, three-year, and five-year periods. With that sort of performance, it's not altogether surprising that many of the majors (Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), et al) look a little undervalued. BP (NYSE:BP) actually jumps out as one of the potentially cheapest names to consider, but there's still quite a bit of work that management has to do to get this one performing again.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051513/bp-looks-cheap-lot-improvements-have-come-through-bp-xom-cvx.aspx

Investopedia: Waiting For Housing To Recover, Valspar's Recovery Already Arrived

Data on the residential housing market has been getting better. Prices and sales activity have both improved, and data from the major big-box home improvement stores Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) suggests that homeowners and contractors are back at work fixing up properties.

While the aforementioned data has been incremental, many housing-related stocks have already posted strong runs. One of them, paint and coatings manufacturer Valspar (NYSE:VAL) is already up 75% over the last two years and about 46% over the past year. While declining TiO2 prices and improving demand should both help results, as will a growing presence in emerging markets, the stock seems to already be testing the high end of its typical valuation range.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051513/waiting-housing-recover-valspars-recovery-already-arrived-val-shw-ppg-akzoy-dd-low.aspx

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Seeking Alpha: LipoScience Gives Its Shareholders Chest Pains

There's a good reason that I always include the warning that small-cap med-techs carry above average risks, and LipoScience (LPDX) dutifully provided an example last week. Due in part to system placement delays and delays in ramping up new sales reps, this emerging diagnostics company missed expectations for the first quarter and lowered guidance for the rest of the year.

Retribution was swift and severe - the shares tanked 25% in a single day. Now the question for investors is whether there is still an opportunity here and where it's worth the risks to buy shares in the hopes of realizing that opportunity.

Read the full article here:
LipoScience Gives Its Shareholders Chest Pains

Investopedia: Chipotle Executing Well, But Valuation Leaves No Margin Of Error

Investors can be slow to abandon their favorite growth stocks, particularly when management has shown itself able to execute at a high level. Couple that with a very strong sector and you have a good recipe for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) to perform. While the shares are still down almost 10% from their year-ago level, they are up almost 60% from a late October bottom and investors seem to be willing once again to just look past challenging same-store traffic trends.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051413/chipotle-executing-well-valuation-leaves-no-margin-error-cmg-mcd-yum-pnra.aspx

Investopedia: Danaher Proves Even The Nimble Can Stumble

I don't want to sound like too much of a fan-boy when it comes to Danaher (NYSE:DHR) (many, if not most, sell-side analysts seem love it more than I do), but I do think it's fair to say that when even Danaher is struggling to put up a good quarter, you know the industrial sector is in a tough spot. With growth decelerating across the board, even Danaher's much-vaunted margin improvement has come up a little short. Even so, this is still a bull market and the shares are just shy of a 52-week high.

Read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051413/danaher-proves-even-nimble-can-stumble-dhr-emr-bio.aspx

Investopedia: Roper A LIttle Short On Growth, But A Proven Builder Of Value

As much as investors and analysts talk about growth, you'd think that would be the be-all end-all of stock selection. The data tells a different story, though, particularly in the industrial sector. When it comes to industrials, at least the diversified conglomerates, it would seem that margin leverage, improving ROICs, and active capital deployment are what really drive shares over the long term. To that end, Roper (NYSE:ROP) still looks like an interesting stock to watch.
Another Unimpressive Growth Story
The theme for the first quarter of 2013 has been disappointing and dreary industrial earnings reports, and Roper certainly fits that theme. While reported revenue rose 4%, organic revenue was down 3% on an identical decline in volume. That puts Roper behind other conglomerates like ABB (NYSE:ABB) and Danaher (NYSE:DHR), ahead of GE (NYSE:GE) and Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), and in basically the same boat as companies like Dover (NYSE:DOV) and Honeywell (NYSE:HON).
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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051413/roper-little-short-growth-proven-builder-value-rop-dhr-ge-itw-hon.aspx

Monday, May 13, 2013

Investopedia: BorgWarner Still In A Long-Term Growth Lane

It has been nearly a year since I last wrote on BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA), but in the intervening months a lot of my predictions seemed to come true. In particular, the stock faltered a couple of times on weakness in light vehicle production numbers and investors had the opportunity to buy shares of this high-quality auto components company in the $60s.

Since the late 2012 swoon, though, these shares have rebounded by a third even though European vehicle production remains weak. While liking these shares in the $60s was easy, buying in in the $80s takes a little more faith in an aggressive long-term growth story that isn't often seen in the auto components sector.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051313/borgwarner-still-longterm-growth-lane-bwa-hon-dlph-etn-lea-towr-cmi-itw-axl-mtor.aspx

Investopedia: ABB Performing Well, But A Big Change Is Coming

This earnings season had been setting up quite well for ABB (NYSE:ABB). Though there was some consternation that the company had overpaid and bought unwelcome volatility with Power-One (Nasdaq:PWER), the company's earnings compared quite favorably to its peer group. With news now that CEO Joe Hogan is resigning, though, investors are right to question whether the company will be able to continue what has been a quite successful run under Hogan's leadership.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051313/abb-performing-well-big-change-coming-abb-emr-hon-rok-si.aspx

Investopedia: Advanced Energy Industries Hanging On For The Turn

There's a quote you will hear once in a while around racing tracks that goes “to finish first, first you have to finish”. Given the nasty cyclical decline in semiconductor and flat panel manufacturing, and the near-death spiral of solar power, that seems like a relevant starting point for a discussion of Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq:AEIS). While conditions look pretty uninspiring today, AEIS has maintained solid market share through this downturn, has a liquid balance sheet, and should be poised to benefit when its core markets ultimately turn around.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051313/advanced-energy-industries-hanging-turn-aeis-pwer-mksi-si-ge.aspx

Investopedia: It Should Be Up From Here For Eaton

The whole point of equity investment to assess, and discount, the value of tomorrow's earnings into today's dollars. To that end, Eaton (NYSE:ETN) is an interesting story. I believe the company is getting through the worst in the hydraulics and vehicle businesses, and that the electrical business should see many years of solid growth. On the other hand, the market already likes this stock quite a bit, and it looks like investors need to go elsewhere for a bargain.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051313/it-should-be-here-eaton-etn-emr-hon-itw-abb-ph.aspx

Investopedia: The Market Seems Unwilling To Let Yum! Brands Stay Cheap For Long

When I last wrote on Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) in early February, I thought the shares were cheap relative to the long-term value but likely wouldn't stay cheap for very long. With the shares already up 10% since then, it looks like that call is working out. It's true that the news from the company's large China operations remains weak, but I believe the worst has passed and the company still has a global growth story to drive the stock.

China Is Still Bad, But Maybe Not As Bad As Feared
China has been a major source of growth and profits for Yum! Brands for quite some time now, but that growth has gone sharply the other way lately on a one-two punch of supplier quality problems and the avian flu. While I don't want to soft-peddle this development, I think it's hasty to assume that the company's KFC brand has really lost any real long-term value in this huge market.

Please continue reading here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051313/market-seems-unwilling-let-yum-brands-stay-cheap-long-yum-mcd-ccsc.aspx

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Investopedia: Middleby Keeps Sticking To A Successful Recipe

Remaining faithful to a value-oriented philosophy sometimes leaves you feeling like you're rooting for certain companies to stumble. Take the case of Middleby (Nasdaq:MIDD). While acquisitions have clearly played a major role in building the company, management has done pretty well in sustaining that growth on an organic basis and developing new equipment to improve the efficiency and profitability of restaurants. Unfortunately, as a very good growth stock, these shares seldom get to a valuation where value or GARP investors can feel comfortable loading up.

With another quarter in the books, Middleby continues to grow at a rate well above its peers and the industry as a whole. What's more, with the restaurant industry apparently feeling more comfortable about near-term trends, it doesn't sound like a stumble in demand is coming. Nevertheless, Middleby is a good stock to keep on watchlists just in case, and more growth-oriented (and less valuation-sensitive) investors may find there's nothing wrong with buying in today.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051013/middleby-keeps-sticking-successful-recipe-midd-eat-mtw-itw-dov.aspx

Investopedia: ArcelorMittal Looks Like A Good House In A Really Tough Neighborhood

Although the U.S. mini-mill companies Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq:STLD) have beaten the market over the past year, these are still tough times in steel, as stocks like U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), POSCO (NYSE:PKX), and ThyssenKrupp really have not been strong. Even though it may enjoy the reputation of being the best integrated steel company out there, that reputation hasn't helped ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) that much, as the stock has languished in a tough steel market. These shares do seem undervalued, but it's probably going to take more optimism about the global economy for shareholders to see the benefits.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051013/arcelormittal-looks-good-house-really-tough-neighborhood-mt-nue-pkx-x-stld.aspx

Investopedia: Little Left To Dendreon But The Hope Trade

Biotech investors are a stubborn and hopeful lot, and many of them will never give up the ship. While confidence and patience are admirable traits up to a point, it sometimes feels like some biotech investors would spin the sun going dark as a positive, as it means no more skin cancer. In the case of Dendreon (Nasdaq:DNDN), it's only the true believers and traders who have any confidence that this company has much of a future. With another very disappointing quarter in the books, I think the only real debate left to have is whether the company can survive.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051013/little-left-dendreon-hope-trade-dndn-jnj-mdvn.aspx

Investopedia: Nvidia Still Too Cheap And Still Very Controversial

At the risk of sounding like a Dos Equis commercial, I don't always write about Nvidia (Nasdaq:NVDA), but when I do, I'm usually pretty bullish on the company's long-term prospects. At the same time, though, I realize that Wall Street is firmly in the “show me” camp on this company and does not believe that it will succeed with its ventures into mobile devices and mobile gaming. This skepticism is why I've held off buying in so far (owning a stock that Wall Street wants to hate is fruitless and frustrating), but it's getting more and more tempting.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/051013/nvidia-still-too-cheap-and-still-very-controversial-nvda-brcm-qcom-intc-amd.aspx

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Investopedia: Adasuve Deal Is Very Good For Alexza, But What About Teva?

It was just a week when I wrote that Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE:TEVA) seemed undervalued on the basis of its probable free cash flow (FCF) trajectory, but that a host of uncertainties (including its strategic direction/priorities) made it a tough stock to love. Wednesday's announcement of a U.S. marketing partnership with Alexza (Nasdaq:ALXA) for the controversial inhaled acute agitation therapy Adusave is a good case-in-point. While Teva may see a diamond in the rough here, a lot of investors and analysts are going to look at this as a sign that the company is flailing around in search of a new direction and embracing longshots as a strategy.

Continue reading here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/adasuve-deal-very-good-alexza-what-about-teva-alxa-teva-vrx-bmy-lly.aspx

Investopedia: Overheated Expectations Send Rackspace Investors To The Torture Chamber

Successful investing demands a careful balance between confidence in your own subjective analysis and a willingness to acknowledge that you may be wrong. When I last wrote on Rackspace (NYSE:RAX) back in February of 2012, I thought the stock looked overpriced and was trading far more on the mania over all things “cloud” than on credible projected cash flow streams.

What I didn't mention at the time was that my fair value was less than half of the current stock price. Such a dramatic difference of opinion with the market led me to revisit the numbers repeatedly, and things didn't look so good for that call as the stock climbed into the high $50s, came back down into the $40s, and then rocketed up to the high $70s earlier this year. Then the worries about growth, competition and margins started to take hold – leading to a nearly 50% drop to today's price just below $40 (as of this writing).

As it sits today, my concerns about Raxspace really haven't changed. While I believe gross demand for managed hosting and cloud platform services will be strong, I believe Rackspace will be hard-pressed to create any sort of economic moat in this market or produce the sort of free cash flow necessary to validate even today's lower share price. I continue to appreciate why investors like Rackspace as a play on cloud and outsourced services, but I fear Rackspace will be laid low by commodity-like profitless prosperity.

Read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/overheated-expectations-send-rackspace-investors-torture-chamber-rax-amzn-goog-ibm.aspx

Investopedia: Groupon Shows Some Vigor, But Much Work Waits To Be Done

Everything is relative in the stock market, and it's important to keep Groupon's (Nasdaq:GRPN) performance in context. Yes, Groupon does seem to be doing better, but bears may well argue that means nothing more than Groupon is in a better state of certain death. Although I don't think Groupon is doomed, I do think there's a lot of work left to do, and Groupon still has a lot left to do before it convinces investors that this is a real business with real value for the long-term.

Some Improvements In The First Quarter
Expectations for Groupon have definitely seen downward revisions over the past year, but the company's first quarter results offer some optimism that management, sell-side analysts, and reality are all back on the same page.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/groupon-shows-some-vigor-much-work-waits-be-done-grpn-fb-vprt-ctct-goog-yhoo.aspx

Investopedia: Is Microsoft Hitting Up Barnes & Noble For Some Nook(ie)?

Even though Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) still sports a billion-dollar enterprise value, investors and analysts have hardly been bullish about its standalone prospects. Now it sounds as though its partner Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) may be about to make a move that would significantly transform the company. While a deal for Nook Media would likely be a real positive for Barnes & Noble, I have a harder time seeing how Microsoft gets its money's worth with such a deal.

Just A Rumor … For Now
Barnes & Noble's Nook Media business (both the e-reader/tablet operations and digital media) has been the target of ample M&A speculation for quite some time, with Microsoft and Liberty Media (Nasdaq:LMCA) figuring prominently in the speculation. Now it sounds as though a real bid could be on the way.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/microsoft-hitting-barnes-noble-some-nookie-msft-bks-amzn-aapl-lmca.aspx

Investopedia: Another Negative Fish Oil Study Adds To Amarin's Marketing Challenges

Nothing has come easy for Amarin (Nasdaq: AMRN).

This manufacturer of the ultra-pure fish oil (EPA in particular) treatment Vascepa has garnered a devoted following of investors who believe that this is not just the next Lovaza (the purified fish oil treatment that Glaxo (NYSE:GSK) acquired in 2007 for $1.7 billion by buying Reliant Pharmaceuticals), but even more. Unfortunately for the bulls, Amarin has not yet garnered the new chemical entity (NCE) status from the FDA that would better shield it from competition, and interest in partnering or acquiring the company has been lackluster enough that the company has gone forward with its own marketing program.

Perhaps even worse, though, is the accumulation of data suggesting that fish oil may not be effective in reducing the risk of death from cardiovascular disease. On Wednesday, the New England Journal of Medicine reported results from the largest done to date on the efficacy of fish oil, and the results were not positive. The real questions for Amarin investors now are whether this trial is relevant to Vascepa and/or what impact it will have on real-world doctors.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/another-negative-fish-oil-study-adds-amarins-marketing-challenges-amrn-gsk-omth-lpdx-sny.aspx

Investopedia: Better Margins Are Nice, But Are Green Mountain Investors Too Excited About The Starbucks Deal?

For better or worse, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq:GMCR) is never a boring stock to watch. Caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears (the stock is up more than 100% over the past year, but over one third of the float is shorted), earnings reports always get more than their fair share of attention. This time around, the company made some respectable progress on margins, but investors may be getting a little too excited about the long-term implications of a new Starbucks (Nasdaq:SBUX) deal and a little too casual about unimpressive revenue growth trends.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/better-margins-are-nice-are-green-mountain-investors-too-excited-about-starbucks-deal-gmcr-sbux-nsrgy-ths-mdlz.aspx

Investopedia: After The Hurricane, Is It Safe To Visit Aruba Networks?

There's a pretty good rule of thumb that applies to swimming and diving – if you can't see the bottom, don't dive in -- and think twice about swimming there. Likewise, jumping into a stock right after a significant revision to earnings expectation can be an invitation for successive disappointments, as companies don't often miss just one time.

With Aruba Networks (Nasdaq:ARUN), that leads to some tough choices for investors. While I definitely believe that the wireless networking (WLAN) is going to grow significantly, and that Aruba is well-positioned to take more share in the small/medium-sized business (SMB) space, I also acknowledge that WLAN spending is largely discretionary and this company could see further order/revenue disappointments if IT demand doesn't rebound during the summer.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050913/after-hurricane-it-safe-visit-aruba-networks-arun-csco-rkus-msi-ffiv-rvbd-orcl-ibm-jnpr-hpq.aspx

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Investopedia: Whole Foods Back On Pace

There will come a time when this is no longer true, but it still seems to be the case that Whole Foods (NYSE:WFM) is a stock you want to buy when comps disappoint and sell-side analysts start collectively clutching their pearls and/or talking about slowing store expansion in favor of capital returns to shareholders. While consumer confidence is still pretty shaky, Whole Foods seems to be doing well with its value positioning and there's still ample store growth potential. Whole Foods isn't cheap today, but I'd be slow to part with these shares if I already owned them.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/whole-foods-back-pace-wfm-tfm-unfi-htsi.aspx

Investopedia: Amgen Chased By The Bubble

There are two relatively heated debates that bear directly on Amgen (Nasdaq:AMGN) and its stock. First, is Amgen still really a biotech, or is it really more of a Big Pharma company? Second, is there a biotech/pharma bubble (and if so, how will valuations fare post-popping)? Investors' perspectives on these two issues likely have a lot to do with whether they see value in these shares, for while Amgen is certainly a well-run company looking to become an increasingly balanced advanced drug developer, the valuation is somewhat demanding unless the pipeline really delivers.

Read more on Amgen here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/amgen-chased-bubble-amgn-pfe-sny-teva-celg-nvo-mrk-hsp-abt-affy-biib-gild.aspx

Investopedia: Recent Financials May Not Be Entirely Fair To Hologic

I have no qualms with those who believe it is the responsibility of the management of public companies to communicate clearly and accurately with investors (and analysts) about the current state of the business and the likely near-term conditions. Likewise, I don't particularly object when the Street punishes those companies that come in short of expectations without having given suitable warning.

So I can understand some of the disappointment with Hologic (Nasdaq:HOLX) these days – the company arguably could have done a better job communicating (and adjusting expectations) in regards to the fall-off in 2D mammography, ThinPrep, and the Chinese business. At the same time, though, I see a lot of what's troubling Hologic as macro issues impacting the sector as a whole. As the company is continuing to execute reasonably well on costs and the Gen-Probe integration, today's share price may be something of an opportunity.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/recent-financials-may-not-be-entirely-fair-hologic-holx-bdx-qgen-ge-jnj-phg.aspx

Investopedia: Disney Does It Again

As I said in my last write-up of Disney (NYSE:DIS), there's an element of predictable unpredictability to this company and that came through again this quarter. Like so many other consumer-oriented stocks, though, Disney has been on an absolute tear – more than doubling the performance of the S&P 500 over the past year. While I wouldn't worry about that if I were a long-term holder of Disney (and still planning on being one), valuation is making it appear as though there's a housing bubble for the House of the Mouse.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/disney-does-it-again-dis-ccl-cmcsa-fun-ea-six.aspx

Investopedia: Mondelez Isn't As Good As Nestle, But Priced Like It Is

While I realize that Wall Street typically prices stocks on the basis of what investors believe a company will look like in the future, I'm still surprised by the relative valuations that come out of the process. Take the case of Mondelez (Nasdaq:MDLZ). This company is focused on multiple growth areas in the packaged food space (and has a large developing market exposure) and does indeed post better growth than many of its peers, but the overall combination of growth and margins wouldn't normally seem to argue for valuation on par with Kellogg (NYSE:K) or Nestle (Nasdaq:NSRGY). Consequently, although I do expect Mondelez to do well relative to its sector in terms of reported growth, I continue to believe that valuation is already too steep.

Read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/mondelez-isnt-good-nestle-priced-it-mdlz-k-nsrgy-pep-krft.aspx

Investopedia: Emerson - More Realistic, But Not Necessarily Better

I've commented before that Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) is an “it's always something” company – there's always something going a little wrong with some part of the business and creating worries for long-term investors. To that end, while Emerson's reported sales growth was actually pretty good on a relative basis this quarter, the incoming orders look ugly, management sounds pessimistic about the second half, and there are still serious issues in network power. While I do believe Emerson would be worth more than today's share price if it could fix its persistent problems, I have incrementally less confidence that management can.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050813/emerson-more-realistic-not-necessarily-better-emr-abb-hon-ge-etn.aspx

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Investopedia: Johnson Controls Has A Lot Of Improving Left To Do

One of the investment and corporate finance topics that has been getting more airtime recently is the notion of “peak margins” - the idea that many (if not most) companies have squeezed all they can from mass firings, IT investments, and other sorts of cost “rationalizations”. If this theory proves accurate, stocks could well be meaningfully overpriced on the basis of margin expansion expectations that just won't materialize.

That could be a relevant topic in the case of Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI), as sell-side analysts continue to project margin improvements well ahead of historical experience. Certainly there are reasons to think that this company could be near a point of margin inflection – the building efficiency business should be close to turning and the company may be ready to start reaping better returns from batteries as well. That said, betting on a significant transformation at a company with a record of underwhelming performance could be a risky bet.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050713/johnson-controls-has-lot-improving-left-do-jci-itw-lea-utx-si.aspx

Investopedia: Broadcom Has To Play Offense And Defense

Once a darling of the floundering chip space, smartphone chip stocks have had a rather rough time of it over the past year or so. Avago (Nasdaq:AVGO), Skyworks (Nasdaq:SWKS), Qualcomm (Nasdaq:QCOM), and Broadcom (Nasdaq:BRCM) have all notably lagged the market over the past year. While it's true that these one-time market-beaters may have overshot the mark and been due for a retrenchment, investors have nevertheless been worried about the pace of high-end smartphone demand and the risk of increased price-based competition from Asian suppliers.

Though I'd be very careful about simply plugging my ears and ignoring the threats to Broadcom's business, this stock continues to look like a solid name for the long term. That said, with the stock close to a 52-week high, the potential here isn't quite what it once was.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050713/broadcom-has-play-offense-and-defense-brcm-qcom-aapl-intc-avgo-swks-sprd.aspx

Investopedia: Sysco's Reputation Seems More Durable Than Its Growth

When a stock holds enduring favor with a patient investor base and the stock is part of a sector that has enjoyed a big upswing in investor interest, that can be a powerful combination. That's about the only explanation that makes sense to me as to why Sysco (NYSE:SYY) shares are up more than 20% over the past year despite slowing sales and difficulties/delays in reducing operating costs. While Sysco remains a very good company, it's harder today for me to make the argument that it's an equally good stock.

To read more about Sysco, please click below:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050713/syscos-reputation-seems-more-durable-its-growth-syy-mcd-wen-cmg.aspx

Investopedia: Ingersoll-Rand Improving, But Are Investors Already Too Optimistic?

I will say right from the beginning that I haven't been a fan of Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE:IR) for some time now. While the involvement of activist investors and a commitment to launch debt-funded share buybacks has helped the stock significantly since October of 2011, the next leg of improvement is going to have to come from better execution. This is where I'm not sure the company can deliver, and where I fear investors have given too much of a benefit of the doubt to management. That said, investors who have more faith in management could look to improving construction markets as a driver for the next move in the stock.

Please read the full article here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050713/ingersollrand-improving-are-investors-already-too-optimistic-ir-utx-jci-lii-tyc.aspx

Investopedia: BMC Software Shows Again That Getting Full Value Is Tough Without Growth

It's hard to call the last few years a nightmare for BMC Software (Nasdaq:BMC) shareholders, but dishwater-gray mediocrity doesn't seem so unfair. Against a nearly 20% return from the Nasdaq, BMC has actually declined about 10% over the past two years (though up almost 30% over five years, and closer to the Nasdaq return), and has trailed peers/comps like CA (NYSE:CA), Compuware (Nasdaq:CPWR), and ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) by a meaningful margin too.

The problem here is one that I've lamented before in the tech sector. Although BMC converts a sizable percentage of its revenue into free cash flow (FCF) and sports solid margins and returns on capital, the company's growth has been lackluster due to an inability to change with the times and establish competitive positions in new markets.

Now the story seems to be all but over for BMC as a publicly-traded company. A consortium of private equity investors has put together a bid that gives investors only a modest premium over the 200-day moving average and would seem to undervalue the company's long-term cash streams. And yet, this very well may be the best deal that investors can hope for and a warning to investors in other cash-rich/growth-poor stories.

Please read the full article here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050613/bmc-software-shows-again-getting-full-value-tough-without-growth-bmc-ca-now-ibm-vmw-cpwr-orcl.aspx

Investopedia: Will Tyson Serve The Bulls Or Serve Up The Bulls?

It's really too bad that Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) doesn't offer a breaded or Buffalo-style crow, as I have to eat a plateful of it with this stock. I didn't like this stock back in the fall of 2012, and thought that the post-earnings reaction then was overdone. As it turns out, though, the stock had another 28% left to appreciate, making it a very solid performer in what has been a strong consumer sector overall.

At the risk of doubling down on a bad call, I'm still not very partial to this stock. Although I do believe that Tyson has the opportunity to grow its international and packaged foods businesses and generate meaningfully better margins, this quarter's margin under-performance highlights just how challenging it can be to deliver on a quarter-to-quarter basis. In the context of what increasingly looks like an overheated consumer sector, I'd be careful about piling into Tyson shares today.

Please read more here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050613/will-tyson-serve-bulls-or-serve-bulls-tsn-ppc-yum-mcd-brfs.aspx

Investopedia: Zions Bancorp Will Likely Find It Harder From Here

One of the biggest trends in bank stocks over the past 18 months or so has been the relative outperformance of bank stocks where the predominant theme was cleaning up the balance sheet and simplifying the business. Investors in banks like Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Synovus (Nasdaq:SNV), and Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq:ZION) have all beaten the market by a healthy margin over the past year, but the question is how much more juice there is to be squeezed from that orange. In the case of Zions, for instance, there's ample scope to reduce funding costs, but fierce competition in lending could delay the progression of real earnings and ROE improvement.

To read more of this article, please go here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050613/zions-bancorp-will-likely-find-it-harder-here-zion-usb-wfc-bac.aspx

Investopedia: Simpler Looks Better For First Horizon

It was all too common during the bubble years that began almost a decade ago to see quality community or regional banks de-prioritize their traditional businesses to reach for the fool’s gold offered by riskier lending. Very few of those stories had happy endings, and many ended like First Horizon National (NYSE:FHN), where the bank saw significant lending losses, putbacks, and the need to raise fresh capital to stay in business.

Now things are settling down and getting back closer to normal. First Horizon has retrenched around its core operations and is looking to reduce its non-strategic lending activity, while also looking to make the most of its sizable market share in Tennessee. The only real drawback to the story, aside from the risk of higher putbacks, is the fact that valuation already anticipates quite a lot of improvement.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050613/simpler-looks-better-first-horizon-fhn-sti-rf-bac-usb-fitb.aspx

Investopedia: Check Point Software Coulld Be A Second-Half Rebounder

It's pretty well-established that buying stocks in the summer months is a recipe for underperformance (the so-called “Sell in May and go away” effect). That's even truer for tech stocks, which makes the notion of buying underperforming Check Point Software (Nasdaq:CHKP) for a second half rebound sound a little crazy. Sometimes crazy works, though, and investors may have a real reason to keep an eye on these shares.

No Good News Yet In Q1

Check Point has had a growth problem for some time now, and that didn't get noticeably better in the first quarter. In fact, the best that can be said about Check Point's first quarter performance is that it marked the end of what has been more than a two-year period of sequential quarterly growth deceleration.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050613/check-point-software-could-be-secondhalf-rebounder-chkp-csco-panw-ftnt-fire.aspx

Monday, May 6, 2013

Investopedia: In A Growth-Starved Sector, Becton Dickinson Rules

It's a curious thing that investors' desire for short-term growth will often lead them to pay what looks like much too high a price for a company's long-term stream of cash flows. Although I wouldn't necessarily say that Becton Dickinson's (NYSE:BDX) current price is “much too high”, I do believe the stock is trading above its long-term fair value due to the fact that it's one of the few top-line growth stories in a very growth-challenged healthcare sector.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050313/growthstarved-sector-becton-dickinson-rules-bdx-jnj-hsp-fms-mdt.aspx

Investopedia: Teva Still Too Cheap, But Still Too Uncertain

The story on the generics giant Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq:TEVA) really hasn't changed all that much over the past year. For investors who can just buy, ignore the volatility, and maintain a long-term perspective, the shares look too cheap. On the other hand, the generic drug business has clearly lost momentum, and it's uncertain if “bio-similar” and a more focused approach to drug development will deliver the promised returns for this company. Consequently, value investors have a lot to like here, but they have to accept that the Street is probably not going to share that enthusiasm for some time yet.

Please continue here:
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/050313/teva-still-too-cheap-still-too-uncertain-teva-nvs-myl-act.aspx

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Seeking Alpha: No News Becoming Bad News For Lexicon Pharmaceuticals

Normally you would think that having a differentiated and proprietary diabetes compound with solid supporting data would make a biotech relatively popular. That would often be particularly true in cases where the drug class has already proven to be pretty popular with drug companies and started to generate real interest among clinicians.

Unfortunately for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' (LXRX) shareholders, things aren't going to plan yet. The company's LX4211 remains the only compound I'm aware of that inhibits both SGLT1 and SGLT2 (other drugs just address SGLT2) and the data have been good so far. Yet, another SGLT2 partnership deal has gone off in the space without including Lexicon - forcing investors to wonder whether a good partnership deal actually is out there to be had and/or whether the company will have to contemplate going it alone into Phase III studies.

Please keep reading here:
No News Becoming Bad News For Lexicon Pharmaceuticals

Seeking Alpha: Erickson Air-Crane Has Scarcity, But Value Is Difficult To Judge

Every so often, an investor will set out to research a company expecting to find a certain type of company and find something completely different. That happens to be the case with me and Erickson Air-Crane (EAC). I originally began my research here thinking I was going to be looking at a small specialty aircraft manufacturer, but instead found myself looking at an increasingly diversified heavy-lift and helicopter service specialist.

Erickson certainly has some interesting points going for it. It is one of the largest providers of helicopter-based heavy lift services in the country, and management is focused on diversifying and maximizing the company's revenue opportunity. While I think consolidation and diversification can deliver interesting growth in the years to come, the debt-heavy balance sheet throws a few kinks into the valuation analysis.

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Erickson Air-Crane Has Scarcity, But Value Is Difficult To Judge