Adecoagro Hit Hard By A Weakening Outlook For Ethanol And Sugar Production

Brazil’s Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) is a good case-in-point that a commodity company can do everything right (or at least do many things right) and still see larger commodity and economic trends, and investor worries about those trends, undo that hard work. Adecoagro, for its part, as long been a low-cost producer of sugar and ethanol (or SEE) in Brazil, as well as a low-cost producer of grain and other agricultural products in Argentina, but it has meant basically nothing for long-term investors, as annualized returns over the last three, five, and 10 years is basically flat to negative.

I was bullish on the prospects for Adecoagro to leverage attractive energy, sugar, and crop prices into solid cash flow that would be returned to shareholders in the wake of completing a major multiyear investment program. While the company has indeed instituted a dividend and buyback, the shares are still down about 15% since that last update – outperforming Cosan (CSAN) and Sao Martinho, but still down (and worse than the performance of other ag names like Cresud (CRESY) and SLC Agricola (OTCPK:SLCJY)).

The trouble with assessing Adecoagro today is that whenever you find yourself asking “how could it get worse?” with a commodity company, the market has an uncanny way of showing you just exactly how it could get worse. I do think that Adecoagro’s valuation is low, but with real concerns about ethanol and sugar prices over the next 12-18 months, as well as crop yields and profitability, this is a tough place to go bargain-hunting.

 

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Adecoagro Hit Hard By A Weakening Outlook For Ethanol And Sugar Production