Taking A Stab At Valuing Amylin Post-FDA

So, I decided to have a go at valuing Amylin (Nasdaq: AMLN) after this FDA debacle.
I came up with the following model (and I apologize for the formatting):

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Byetta 550 385 270 230 180 120 80 Symlin 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Bydureon 300 750 1000 1250 1500 Total Revenue     640     475     660  1,070  1,270  1,460  1,670 GM% 90% 90% 82% 75% 76% 77% 78% Gross Profit 576.0 427.5 541.2 802.5 965.2 1124.2 1302.6 RD 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 SGA 300 275 325 325 350 375 400 Partner 250 175 200 250 300 400 490 Net inc -139 -187.5 -148.8 62.5 150.2 184.2 247.6 Non-cash 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 OCF -39 -87.5 -48.8 162.5 250.2 284.2 347.6
So, a few points: - I excluded obesity revenue, but I'll get back to that later... - I excluded interest expense (because it is not that significant) - I used $100M in non-cash add-backs as a "plug" - I excluded significant CapEx in the DCF, as I don't see the company needing much... If I plug those numbers into a DCF, and discount the result at 14%, I get a value of $14.50 per share. Amylin has debt, though, and that amounts to about $4.50/share (assuming that they cannot just continue to roll it over or convert it at favorable rates). Now, obesity ... if I assign $1B in total revenue potential to the obesity program and discount it both by the likelihood of approval (25%) and the split between AMLN and Takeda, I get a value somewhere in the $4 range. So, at a bottom line, Amylin should be worth something like $14 today, based on an assumption that Bydureon gets approved in 2012, maxes out at $1.5B/yr, and that obesity contributes about $4 in share value in five years' time and beyond. I realize this is a crude model and a crude approach to the problem, but I figure it's at least an educated guess... Disclosure - I own share of Amylin