Friday, October 3, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Cemig's Wild Ride Continues

Brazilian utility Cemig (NYSE:CIG) is a good case in point that emerging market utilities don't always offer that higher growth/lower volatility mix that investors often seem to expect. There are certainly a lot of company-specific challenges for Cemig, including an ongoing fight over retaining concessions to three sizable hydropower generating assets, aggressive cost reduction guidance, and worries that management is pursuing low-return investments. On top of those, Cemig faces hydrology risks, political uncertainty, and economic risks in Brazil.

Since my last piece on March 20, these shares have been pretty volatile - jumping almost 50% (for the local shares) before a nearly 25% sell-off. There would be further upside from here if Cemig's legal efforts to retain its hydropower concessions prevail and the company does have additional spot exposure to the Brazilian electricity market, but with the valuation close to a weighted average base case scenario I'm not thrilled about the risk-reward balance.

Read more here:
Cemig's Wild Ride Continues

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