As the insurance markets in Europe get back to normal
after the various financial crises, not all of the participants have
benefited equally. In my view, AXA (OTCQX:AXAHY) and Allianz (OTCQX:AZSEY)
moved faster to reposition themselves for the new market realities, and
I believe that's at least part of the reason why their shares have
outperformed Belgium's Ageas (OTCPK:AGESY)
over the past three years (as well as the past year). Nevertheless, I
think Ageas has gone a long way toward stabilizing and repositioning its
business, and I think the company is poised to benefit from better
rates in life insurance and growing opportunities in Asia.
Ageas
has surplus capital, and I expect that capital will go toward M&A
or back to shareholders. I don't expect exceptional profit growth or
return expansion from Ageas, but mid-single-digit growth is enough to
support a fair value more than 10% above today's price, and I believe
that the businesses will continue to support a healthy dividend payout
to shareholders. Investors should note that the ADRs are not especially
liquid, so buying the Belgium-listed shares (AGS.BR) may be a better
option for some investors.
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Ageas Looks Undervalued On Its Core Earnings Power, With Capital Available To Support More Growth
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