Thursday, May 8, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Endurance Specialty Still Undergoing Substantial Shifts

Endurance Specialty Holdings (ENH) hasn't quite settled into its new normal yet, which makes quarter-to-quarter forecasting quite a bit more challenging. Expenses are still running high, but premium growth in the insurance business should lead to better leverage down the road. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty about the long-term profitability of business being written today in the insurance sector, and Endurance's pursuit of Aspen (AHL) adds yet another layer of uncertainty. I seem to be a little more bullish than most sell-side analysts on Endurance's long-term profitability, as an assumption of a five-year ROE of 10% leads to a fair value estimate above $58.

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Endurance Specialty Still Undergoing Substantial Shifts

Seeking Alpha: Advanced Energy Industries Steps Back On Softer Demand

Advanced Energy Industries' (AEIS) first-quarter results reflect at least some of the reasons why I wasn't too eager to overpay for the stock back in early February. While AEIS has good technology and products for both the semiconductor equipment and solar industries, these are volatile businesses, and demand/orders for semi equipment in particular has proven to be quite volatile this year. The company has a lot of work left to do in bringing the solar inverter business to profitability, but the nearly 50% haircut since late February does have this stock at a more interesting level.

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Advanced Energy Industries Steps Back On Softer Demand

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

The Motley Fool: Why 3M Co's Performance Is Better Than It Looks

3M (NYSE: MMM  ) carries a reputation for playing it a little too conservative and not offering the best performance early in a recovery. However, 3M's current management team seems to be moving more aggressively to reposition the company for more dynamic full-cycle results. Although it's not really a quarter-to-quarter type of company, 3M's underlying performance was better than the quarterly report results (and Wall Street's reaction to them) might otherwise suggest.

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Why 3M Co's Performance Is Better Than It Looks

Seeking Alpha: Commercial Vehicle Still Improving, But Not As Cheap

With Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) shares up about 25% year-to-date and 18% since my last article, I can't really complain as a shareholder. In that time period, CVGI's performance has easily outdistanced better commercial vehicle components companies like Cummins (CMI), BorgWarner (BWA), Allison (ALSN), and Grammer (OTC:GMEGF). Some of this can be tied to the strong underlying growth in North American Class 8 orders, but I believe some of it is likely due to the recognition that Commercial Vehicle's new management team has a new, better vision for how to operate this company.

The question with a turnaround is when to take your winnings and move on. I have to admit that I'm close to that point with Commercial Vehicle. I do believe that the company has the potential to gain share outside of its core North American truck market and even relatively small changes in operating margin, EBITDA margin, or FCF margin assumptions lead to meaningful changes in estimated fair value. The shares still look poised for low double-digit returns, but investors shouldn't forget that this is not an inherently high-margin business and they shouldn't overstay their welcome reaching for that next dollar.

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Commercial Vehicle Still Improving, But Not As Cheap

Seeking Alpha: Good Progress At Argo Group

Argo Group (AGII) has a good platform of excess & surplus and commercial specialty insurance, and the company's premium growth, loss ratios, and reserve developments have been typically been as good or better than peers over the last five years. The sticking point has been the company's uncommonly high expense ratio and its impact on reported returns. These shares have headed about 10% higher since I last wrote on them, and Monday's earnings suggest that optimism about better expense control and higher reported income is the correct position for now.

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Good Progress At Argo Group

Seeking Alpha: AXA's Progress Not Fully Reflected In The Shares

French multinational, multiline insurance company AXA SA (OTCQX:AXAHY) was badly dented during the credit crisis, particularly as the cost of hedging its large variable annuity exposure got so expensive. Not unlike MetLife (MET), AXA has pursued a plan designed to increase the cash flow generated per dollar of revenue and underlying profit while shifting business toward more protection-oriented and less capital-intensive products. While AXA still has a lot of leverage, the shares appear undervalued on a long-term basis.

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AXA's Progress Not Fully Reflected In The Shares

Seeking Alpha: Can New Markets And New Machines Assemble More Value At KUKA?

Robots still have a bit of the "gee whiz" about them, even if they've been on site in automobile plants for almost 50 years now. KUKA AG (OTC:KUKAY) has built itself into the world's third-leading robot company, but still generates about half of its robot sales (and three-quarters of overall sales) from the automotive industry. KUKA could be undervalued here, but a large part of the company's incremental value rests on gaining share outside its core automotive end market and boosting its margins.

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Can New Markets And New Machines Assemble More Value At KUKA?

Seeking Alpha: Should Basilea Pharmaceutica Be Trading At Twice This Price?

The biotech sector has fallen on hard times, with momentum investors fleeing the space and those who remain taking a much more careful look at just how much they are willing to pay for these speculative stocks. Caught up in the mix is the very under-covered Basilea Pharmaceutica (OTC:BPMUF), a small-cap Swiss biotech focused on antibiotics, antifugals, and oncology drugs. While the company does not yet have a drug approved in the U.S., key filings are close at hand for multiple drugs.

Investors should note that Basilea's U.S. ADRs are very illiquid. With less than 10 million shares outstanding, an average volume of about 110,000, and three analysts covering the company it is not as though the Swiss-listed shares (SIX:BSLN) are rolling in ample liquidity either. This makes an already risky situation a little more challenging for U.S. investors.


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Should Basilea Pharmaceutica Be Trading At Twice This Price?

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

The Motley Fool: Does Stryker's Skid Offer a Buying Opportunity?

Long-term investing is generally the way to go, but that does not mean that investors shouldn't take advantage of short-term moves that work in their favor. Stryker (NYSE: SYK  ) remains a very well-run company in the med-tech space, with good exposure to orthopedics, surgical instruments, and neurology, but a recent slide in the stock appears to have opened up a little window of opportunity in the shares.

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Does Stryker's Skid Offer a Buying Opportunity?

Seeking Alpha: Despite Challenging Conditions, Investors Buying Anglo American's Self-Improvement Potential

These are not particularly easy times for Anglo American plc (OTCPK:AAUKY). Copper prices have been holding up, but iron ore has been weak, met coal remains weak, and the company's platinum business has been hit by a major strike. Even so, Anglo's share price is within 10% of its 52-week high due in part to optimism regarding the long-term potential of the company's restructuring efforts. Anglo American shares don't look too expensive today, but investors do need to appreciate the elevated operating risk relative to names like Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Glencore Xstrata (OTCPK:GLNCY).

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Despite Challenging Conditions, Investors Buying Anglo American's Self-Improvement Potential

Seeking Alpha: Alliance Grain Traders Still Pulsing With Opportunity

Alliance Grain Traders (OTCPK:AGXXF) (AGT.TO) has done alright since I last discussed the company, with the shares up about 15% over a period where the S&P 500 rose about half that amount and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) rose about 6%. In that time, Alliance Grain Traders has faced some challenges related to rail logistics, but has also continued to make progress on its food ingredient and retail strategies. While this business is likely to remain a low-margin operation with meaningful year-to-year volatility, the shares don't seem to reflect the potential of the ingredients business.

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Alliance Grain Traders Still Pulsing With Opportunity

Seeking Alpha: Life In The Slow Layne

Life hasn't been easy for companies that make their living off of municipal infrastructure spending, but Layne Christensen (LAYN) has still managed to "out-struggle" the likes of Mueller Water Products (MWA) and Aegion (AEGN) when it comes to overall performance. Granted Aegion and Mueller are of limited comparative value given the differences in business mix (particularly Mueller), but the point stands that Layne is struggling to find its way to profitability in the current environment. Management continues to tell an optimistic story of future success, but it takes pretty bullish expectations about the future to make these shares look appealing today.

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Life In The Slow Layne

Monday, May 5, 2014

The Motley Fool: After Missing Earnings, Is Pfizer a Good Value?

When Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) last reported earnings I was pretty ambivalent about the stock, and since that late January piece the shares have lagged both the broader market and pharma industry peers like Merck, Lilly, and Novartis. It's not as though the company has been sitting still either, what with positive clinical updates on its Prevnar vaccine and palbociclib oncology drug. Dwarfing all of that is the potential megadeal for British pharma company AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN  ) . Pfizer needs to guard against overpaying in this potential deal, but these shares are getting closer to an interesting entry point for long-term investors.

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After Missing Earnings, Is Pfizer a Good Value?

The Motley Fool: Is Becton, Dickinson and Company a Buy?

The general theme of med-tech earnings through this cycle seems to be that the market has gotten a little bit ahead of many of the companies, leading to earnings reports that the sell-side characterizes as "slightly disappointing." Among those is Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX  ) , a generally reliable company that is structured more for long-term performance than short-term growth. Analysts seem focused on the weak results in diagnostics, but the overall picture hasn't really changed all that much.

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Is Becton, Dickinson and Company a Buy?

Seeking Alpha: Uncertainties Weighing A Little Too Heavily On MetLife

For a company that has been either a group leader or solidly above peer averages for quite some time, MetLife (MET) doesn't get a lot of benefit of the doubt these days. Some of that can be tied to the weak rate environment as well as uncertainties as to how large insurance companies like MetLife will be regulated in the future. I believe investors are too worried about the negatives on this name and are underrating the growth potential of the company's overseas businesses and the value of its strategic shift toward more protection-oriented and less capital-intensive business. These shares could be as much as 25% undervalued today, making it a very worthwhile name to consider at these levels.

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Uncertainties Weighing A Little Too Heavily On MetLife

Seeking Alpha: A Slower Recovery Threatens Manitowoc's Ambitious Multiple

Investors have been waiting for the boom/bust crane cycle to fuel another upswing in Manitowoc's (MTW) results, but the actual recovery in construction and infrastructure activity has proven slower and less stable than hoped. Management remains confident that the outlook for 2014 hasn't changed all that much, but investors clearly voted with their feet as the weak first quarter results sent the shares down 10% on Friday. Even after the decline, Manitowoc isn't all that cheap but it does remain a leveraged play on that recovery in construction and construction equipment spending.

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A Slower Recovery Threatens Manitowoc's Ambitious Multiple

Seeking Alpha: ON Semiconductor Coming Along

Up around 22% since I wrote about it as a Top Idea, I can't complain too much about how the ON Semiconductor (ONNN) has developed. The company's SANYO business still isn't up to snuff, but the company's leverage to industrial and auto markets puts it in the right place at the right time. Rising inventories are a potential area of concern, but ON still has more margin upside than the average analog chip company today.

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ON Semiconductor Coming Along

Seeking Alpha: BorgWarner Among The Best-In-Class In Auto Parts

Auto parts supplier BorgWarner (BWA) has a lot working in its favor. A share leader in turbochargers, BorgWarner has a portfolio of products in turbocharging, timing, ignition, emission, transmission, and torque transfer that offer OEMs the opportunity to improve fuel efficiency and lower emissions. The company also has an uncommonly good record of profitability and cash flow generation within the auto space, with room to grow from geographic and end-market expansion.

What BorgWarner doesn't have so much of is clear undervaluation. I'm not betting against BorgWarner's long-term success as a company, but today's valuation already seems to factor in pretty considerable growth and margin improvement from here. I have a hard time paying a double-digit forward multiple to EBITDA for an auto parts company (excluding turnarounds/special situations), and I'm tempted to wait for one of the occasional sizable pullbacks in the shares.

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BorgWarner Among The Best-In-Class In Auto Parts

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Portfolio Recovery Grinding Through A Lull

Debt collector Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) had to deal with multiple headwinds in the first quarter of 2014. Many of these were "self-inflicted" with the goal of greater long-term growth and profitability, but it is nevertheless worth remembering that this quarter's results aren't really reflective of the long-term story. Conditions remain challenging in the U.S. from a supply standpoint, but the company continues to do well with its collection efforts, and the acquisition of Aktiv holds the potential to be a transformative deal. Earnings momentum may be a little weaker this year, but there still appears to be solid long-term value in the shares.

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Portfolio Recovery Grinding Through A Lull

Seeking Alpha: Wright Medical Continuing To Gain Share In A Growth Market

While Wright Medical (WMGI) has gotten caught up in the same sell-off that has hit many other small-cap, med-tech stocks, the underlying performance of the business continues to improve. Wright Medical is outgrowing the lower extremities market, and still has balance sheet flexibility to add products or distribution in areas like extremity devices/tools and biologics. Even with the decline in the share price, this is not a cheap name, but it does offer above-average scarcity value in an increasingly acquisitive med-tech market.

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Wright Medical Continuing To Gain Share In A Growth Market

Seeking Alpha: FEMSA Muddling Through Better Than Most

This has been a pretty miserable stretch for most Mexican retailers, as sluggish employment trends, new taxes, and lower remittances have all dinged confidence and spending. To the extent that having the best house in a rough neighborhood should matter, FEMSA (FMX) ought to be getting a little more respect in the market. Management was cautious and conservative on the call (as they often are), but this company continues to run some of the best-positioned businesses in Mexico, and is worth a closer look as the Mexican economy starts to turn up.

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FEMSA Muddling Through Better Than Most

Seeking Alpha: For Accuray, Lumpy Progress Is Still Progress

What Accuray (ARAY) is attempting to do is not easy, and that at least partially explains why the company continues to see lumpy progress on its path toward becoming a fully-fledged growth med-tech. It's hard enough to sell hospital capital equipment with a list price above $4 million, and harder still when competing against such well-established rivals as Varian (VAR) and Elekta (OTCPK:EKTAY) (rivals that were able to essentially push Siemens out of the market).

Making matters worse, Accuray's stock has gotten caught up in the same capital flight that has led to other growth med-techs like Novadaq, Heartware, and Insulet seeing share price declines between 15% and 25% over the past three months. The next 18 months are likely to continue to show quarter-to-quarter volatility in certain areas (like orders), but the shares remain too cheap so long as revenue and margins continue to develop favorably.

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For Accuray, Lumpy Progress Is Still Progress

Thursday, May 1, 2014

The Motley Fool: Are Investors Putting Too Much Faith In Novo Nordisk?

It is hard to be too critical of Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO  ) , as this Danish biopharma specialist practically mints money with its leading franchises in diabetes, hemophilia, and growth hormones. The company is facing more challenges than it has in the past, though, as biosimiliars and new formulations threaten to change the insulin market and reimbursement pressures become more visible. It is hard to call Novo Nordisk underpriced, but a stock that looks poised to generating market-matching returns behind the security of good economic moats does have some appeal on a risk-adjusted basis.

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Are Investors Putting Too Much Faith In Novo Nordisk?

The Motley Fool: Are Boston Scientific Corporation's Little Misses Pilling Up?

Never estimate how often sell-side analysts or institutional investors can shrug off disappointments from stocks they want to like, but it looks like Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX  ) is starting to chew up some of the goodwill on the Street. Boston Scientific isn't performing poorly per se, but the company continues to report slightly disappointing quarters that run counter to the idea that it has truly turned a corner in its operating history. Boston Scientific shares don't look expensive in a world lacking cheap med-tech names, but it's worth remembering that the Street is already banking on some pretty aggressive margin improvements and sales growth driven by devices yet to even secure approval.

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Are Boston Scientific Corporation's Little Misses Pilling Up?

Seeking Alpha: ACE Still The Place For Reasonable Insurance Returns

Despite worries to the contrary, this earnings cycle has shown that well-run P&C insurance companies are still finding opportunities to grow their business and generate respectable returns. One of the large commercial insurers, ACE Ltd (ACE) has used its significant global footprint and its relatively low property exposure to continue generating good premium growth and underwriting profits. The P&C market is likely to soften further, likely shrinking management's ability to generate such favorable reserve developments down the line, but ACE shares still appear to offer some upside at these levels.

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ACE Still The Place For Reasonable Insurance Returns

Seeking Alpha: BRF Still In The Early Stages Of A Major Transformation

It is going to take time to realize, but the management of BRF SA (BRFS), or "Brasil Foods", has a bold vision for this already-large food company. The basic story at BRF has not changed all that much - the company wants to transition from a commodity producer of animal proteins to a diversified branded global food company - but management has gotten more serious about product development, go-to-market strategies, and global distribution. With a strong position in the growing Brazilian market, as well as footholds in the Middle East and Asia, a potential double-digit annual return makes this still a stock worth following closely.

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BRF Still In The Early Stages Of A Major Transformation

Seeking Alpha: Silicon Labs Still Looking For A Transition To Drive New Growth

There's virtually no such thing as a perpetual winner in the semiconductor space, as companies have to deal with cyclical end-markets and evolving competition. Silicon Labs (SLAB) is more proactive than most companies in "self-obsoleting" and identifying new revenue growth opportunities, but the company's transition toward the microcontroller-driven Internet of Things business is still in progress. I'm not sold on the company's ability to carve out a leading position in ultra low-power microcontrollers, but Silicon Labs does have a shot of being one of the better growth stories over the next 18 months, and forward expectations aren't too demanding.

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Silicon Labs Still Looking For A Transition To Drive New Growth

Seeking Alpha: Is AGCO Corp. Washed Out Enough To Own?

The rise and fall of the agriculture equipment cycle has gotten plenty of attention, but I don't think it's all that widely appreciated that AGCO (AGCO) has done reasonably well over that cycle - beating Deere (DE) over the past two years and keeping pace over the last year (and beating CNH Industrial (CNHI)). More recently, it seems that some on the sell side have favored AGCO as a "better house in a bad neighborhood" play, but the company is still facing challenges, with share loss in Brazil and weaker relative margins, and AGCO's recent guidance was not particularly strong. The valuation on these shares does look interesting, but investors need to be aware that they're swimming against the tide right now.

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Is AGCO Corp. Washed Out Enough To Own?

Seeking Alpha: NCR Corp. Still Undervalued, But Not Helping Its Cause

When I last wrote on NCR (NCR) in December of 2013, I thought that NCR's acquisition of Digital Insight was a good move, but that ongoing skepticism about the company's pension status, FCF conversion, and ability to drive synergies across the business would likely keep the stock from realizing its significant upside over the next year.

With the shares basically flat in the five months since (and likely down once trading opens on Wednesday), I can't say I'm disappointed or surprised with the company's performance. The key to the NCR story remains its comprehensive hardware and software toolbox for financial institutions, its growth prospects within the retail and hospitality industries, and its conversion toward higher-margin software sales. NCR still gets the opposite of the benefit of the doubt from the Street and still offers attractive upside from these levels, though management has to start generating better FCF conversion and guidance to realize that upside.

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NCR Corp. Still Undervalued, But Not Helping Its Cause

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Oshkosh Leveraged To A U.S. Construction Recovery

Not much has changed in the past quarter for Oshkosh (OSK) and that's not necessarily a bad thing. The company's aerial work platform business is recovering, but Oshkosh and Terex (TEX) are still waiting on rental companies in North America to renew their fleets. The potential for activist-prompted moves is still here, and it increasingly sounds as though management is considering an acquisition. Oshkosh still looks undervalued on the basis of construction and commercial vehicle prospects, with defense offering a highly binary outcome later next year, but delays in a U.S. construction recovery remain as a meaningful risk factor.

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Oshkosh Leveraged To A U.S. Construction Recovery

Seeking Alpha: Eaton Offering Middling Performance And Middling Value

Over the past year, a lot of the industrial conglomerates have moved together in a fairly tight group, Eaton (ETN) included. Given the company's middle-of-the-road financial performance and fairly average valuation, Eaton looks like an okay pick, but not necessarily anything special. The company still has the potential to drive additional savings and leverage from the Cooper deal and harness improving conditions in vehicle and aerospace markets, but the company's industrial business isn't offering the same prospects.

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Eaton Offering Middling Performance And Middling Value

Seeking Alpha: Cummins Revving Up For The Next Truck Cycle

There's no doubting now that the operating environment for the North American Class 8 truck industry is getting better, and Cummins (CMI) stands to be a major beneficiary. European and Chinese truck markets are also looking stronger, helping to offset weakness in other areas like Brazilian trucks and power generation. Cummins shares are already up about 28% over the past year, and BorgWarner (BWA) and Dana (DAN) may offer a little extra relative performance, but I wouldn't rush to take profits just yet.

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Cummins Revving Up For The Next Truck Cycle

Seeking Alpha: Orbital Sciences And Alliant Techsystems Look Like A True Win-Win

No company has ever announced a merger with "this is a value-destroying transaction that we're launching because we want a bigger fiefdom and don't really know how to build value." That said, while investors are wise to be very skeptical about the synergies companies promise with merger announcements, Tuesday's announced merger between Orbital Sciences (ORB) and Alliant Techsystems (ATK) looks like a really good opportunity to build a stronger business.

As I had valued Orbital at around $31 per share in February, and I calculate a value of about $31 in Alliant's offer for the company, I can't say that this is an unfair deal for either side. What's more, for those shareholders willing to hold on and see how the synergies play out, this could be a case where 1+1 equals something meaningfully more than "2".

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Orbital Sciences And Alliant Techsystems Look Like A True Win-Win

Seeking Alpha: ABB Gets Fried By Its High Voltage Business

In one bad quarter, ABB (ABB) appears to have undone a lot of the goodwill it had built up over the past year. Investors have been nervous for some time about ABB's very active board (which has led to two premature CEO departures), an uncertain M&A strategy, and the company's business mix, as well as its uncanny tendency to do well/poorly when others are doing the opposite. While the stocks sizable decline in the wake of the first quarter disappointment seems a little extreme, ABB is likely to find itself back into the "show me" penalty box of Wall Street.

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ABB Gets Fried By Its High Voltage Business

Seeking Alpha: Smart Deals And Smurfit Synergies Can Still Help Rock-Tenn

Rock-Tenn (RKT) is a fairly well-respected company in the paper packaging industry, but the company has struggled to generate appreciably better returns on capital over time. I suspect that is at least part of the reason that the company has lagged both International Paper (IP) and Packaging Corp (PKG) over the long term and other players like Graphic Packaging (GPK) and MeadWestvaco (MWV) more recently.

The company took on a big operational challenge (and a lot of debt) when it acquired Smurfit-Stone at a generous price in 2011, but the company has likely not maxxed out the potential synergies and operational improvements here. I do have some concerns about the near-term health of the corrugated and containerboard markets, but it looks as though the shares already factor in a fair bit of that risk.

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Smart Deals And Smurfit Synergies Can Still Help Rock-Tenn

Seeking Alpha: Roper Delivers A Best-In-Class Performance

Conditions seem to have improved in a big way for industrial conglomerate Roper (ROP) in a relatively short time. Not only did Roper beat expectations for the quarter, but the company delivered one of the best results in its sector. Roper is seldom an exceptionally cheap stock, but valuation isn't too demanding and the combination of good order momentum and an active hunt for M&A could lead to a more active 2014 for shareholders.

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Roper Delivers A Best-In-Class Performance

Monday, April 28, 2014

The Motley Fool: For Forest Labs, Inc, Deals Are Coming Fast And Furiex

This is definitely a season of deals in the health care space, with Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX  ) choosing to add another asset to its GI business ahead of its anticipated merger with Actavis (NYSE: ACT  ) . Forest Labs is offering a significant premium for Furiex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: FURX  ) and there are still FDA-related risks in play, but it seems like a reasonable offer for what could prove to be a highly synergistic asset.

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For Forest Labs, Inc, Deals Are Coming Fast And Furiex

The Motley Fool: Do Disappointing Earnings Create a Good Buying Opportunity?

By most standards, Covidien (NYSE: COV  ) has been a superior performer in the med-tech sector. That hasn't always shown up in the company's stock performance, however, as rebound stories like St. Jude Medical, Boston Scientific, and Bard have raced ahead. With Covidien announcing a noisy quarter with some apparent seasonal pressures on Friday, it looks as though Fools have an opportunity to add shares in a high-quality name at a pretty interesting valuation.

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Do Disappointing Earnings Create a Good Buying Opportunity?

The Motley Fool: The Clouds Are Parting for Weatherford International

The first-quarter earnings report for the fourth-largest energy services provider, Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT  ) , was not flawless in terms of growth or margins. What was, and is, more important is that the company has very clearly put itself on a path of serious self-improvement and is remaking itself into a high-margin provider of services with relatively little overlap with the big three -- Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) , and Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) .

With this progress, the penalty to Weatherford's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple no longer seems as appropriate, and these shares continue to look undervalued as an improving play on unconventional reservoirs.

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The Clouds Are Parting for Weatherford International

Seeking Alpha: AtriCure Making Progress, But Can It Maximize Value On Its Own?

These are good times for investors to start thinking about putting together shopping lists for speculative healthcare stocks, as the market has been bailing out on not only biotechs but also speculative med-techs. AtriCure (ATRC) isn't speculative in many important respects, as the company has approvals for its key products, but is still quite speculative insofar as the company's ability to convince doctors to adopt its surgical ablation approach and generate meaningful revenue and profits.

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AtriCure Making Progress, But Can It Maximize Value On Its Own?

Seeking Alpha: At Basic Energy Services, Sentiment Has Changed Faster Than The Business

A sector-wide re-rating can be a powerful driver for a stock, and so it has been for Basic Energy Services (BAS). Amidst an improving outlook (or at least perceived outlook) for energy service stocks, Basic Energy has been one of the strongest names - handily beating Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) so far this year, as well as most other small/mid-cap service names like Key (KEG), Superior (SPN), RPC (RES), and C & J Energy Services (CJES).

While I thought that Basic Energy had been overlooked back in 2013, it's hard to make the same argument now that sector-wide forward EV/EBITDA multiples have moved from 5x to 6x to 7x to 8x. Basic Energy is likely to see good improvements in its core Permian market in 2014, and those improvements are going to be an important part of the remaining upside in these shares as sentiment has already improved markedly.

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At Basic Energy Services, Sentiment Has Changed Faster Than The Business

Seeking Alpha: Superior Energy Services Needs U.S. Land To Turn

Investors have gotten quite a bit more bullish about prospects for the energy service companies over the last three to six months, largely due to increased optimism that U.S. land conditions really are improving. That should be good news for Superior Energy Services (SPN), as should the signs that deepwater Gulf of Mexico activity is turning around. The real question for Superior, though, is whether the company can better leverage its "integrated lite" operating structure and start delivering better returns for shareholders.

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Superior Energy Services Needs U.S. Land To Turn

Seeking Alpha: Old Dominion Continues To Take Share

As I expected back in February, Old Dominion's (ODFL) fourth quarter was just a bump on the road and business has gotten back to normal. Normal is a very good thing for Old Dominion, as the company's superior service quality continues to fuel share gains and good cost control allows the company to thrive with relatively lower price increases than its competition. Old Dominion shares aren't cheap by standard valuation metrics, but I believe standard metrics may be a little too confining for a significantly above-average operator.

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Old Dominion Continues To Take Share

Seeking Alpha: Another 'Is What It Is' Quarter From Microsemi

Because Microsemi (MSCC) zigs where most other chip companies zag, it never really seems to fit in with the general sentiment on chips. That's a plus when chip stocks go into the tank, but it can be frustrating when there's relatively more optimism about the semiconductor space. Given Microsemi's position in timing/synchronization and its growing FPGA business, I'm content to continue holding these undervalued shares, but I acknowledge that the company's erratic progress on revenue growth and margins will frustrate many investors.

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Another 'Is What It Is' Quarter From Microsemi

Seeking Alpha: For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

The wait goes on at Ultratech (UTEK), and it's not a particularly pleasant one for investors (nor, I imagine, the company's executives and employees). Management noted increased quoting activity for LSA systems and continues to expect orders and shipments to materialize soon, but investors are left in a frustrating grey zone wondering when foundries will make their orders and how the annealing market will shake out between Applied Materials (AMAT), Ultratech, DNS (OTC:DINRY), and Mattson (MTSN).

Ultratech's first quarter results do offer a reminder that the company has other credible business lines, including advanced packaging and tools for high brightness LED manufacturing, but it is the ramp in laser spike annealing tools that will make or break the stock in the near term. Ultratech could still trade into the $30s from here, and investors are now only a quarter or two away on better visibility into this next round of annealing tool orders.

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For Ultratech The Story Remains 'Ready, Set... Wait!'

Friday, April 25, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Is There Enough Gas In The Tank To Take CB&I Back Up?

The opportunity to leverage plentiful U.S. low-cost natural gas reserves into LNG exports is real and CB&I (CBI) has built itself into one of the best engineering, procurement, and construction companies in that space. Along the way it has also positioned itself as a strong player in chemicals and power, as well as a provider of process technologies for the chemical, refining, and gas processing markets.

CB&I has over 10 quarters of revenue already in the order book, and there is still the possibility (if not probability) of additional awards in LNG, chemicals, and OUS power plants. The catch, as is so often the case, is in the valuation. There's a pretty long record of EPC companies trading at forward EV/EBITDA multiples in the 8x to 10x range, and applying that range to CB&I doesn't point to much upside in a stock that has already risen 60% in the last year, 100% in the last two years, and almost 700% in the last five years.

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Is There Enough Gas In The Tank To Take CB&I Back Up?

Seeking Alpha: Allied World Delivers A Good Underwriting Result, Spiked With Reserves And Investments

About four months ago, I pointed out Allied World Assurance (AWH) as a high-quality specialty liability-focused insurance company that was trading a little rich for my tastes. With the stock having lagged the S&P 500 by about 6% since then, due in part to concerns about reserve strengthening in the professional healthcare liability space and overall worries about P&C insurance, now the valuation is starting to look a little more interesting.

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Allied World Delivers A Good Underwriting Result, Spiked With Reserves And Investments

Seeking Alpha: Can Fortinet Deliver A One-Two Punch Of Growth With Higher Margins?

It's probably true of all industries to some extent, but the enterprise/network security business seems to be one where there's always some nagging detail for the companies. Check Point (CHKP) has fantastic margins, but hasn't always been quick to innovate and seems willing to cede margin to maintain share. Palo Alto (PANW) has a great sales effort, but sometimes seems to overstate its own capabilities. For Fortinet (FTNT), the challenge is pairing good revenue growth and share gains with strong margins, and judging by management's guidance that challenge will continue on at least another quarter.

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Can Fortinet Deliver A One-Two Punch Of Growth With Higher Margins?

Seeking Alpha: Noise Over DCBs Clouds An Otherwise Okay Quarter At Bard

For a company with relatively modest underlying growth trends, C.R.Bard (BCR) has generated a fair bit of enthusiasm on the Street for the enhanced growth prospects bought through M&A and the royalty stream from Gore. Among the acquired products, investors are particularly keen on the prospects for the Lutonix drug-coated balloon and management's comments on the earnings call only seemed to add more confusion to already noisy situation. Bard is not a particularly cheap stock at these levels and the company is going to need better organic growth and clear differentiation in drug-coated balloons to support further gains.

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Noise Over DCBs Clouds An Otherwise Okay Quarter At Bard

Seeking Alpha: Federal-Mogul Has Work To Do On Margins

There were some solid positives in Federal-Mogul's (FDML) first quarter, as the company's Powertrain business handily outgrew the light vehicle markets in North America and Europe and the company successfully refinanced some large outstanding debt balances. There's more work to do on margins, though, and the company is facing increasingly difficult comps, higher interest expense, and integration expenses from three recent acquisitions. Federal-Mogul still looks undervalued today, but that's not exactly a consensus opinion and the company's high debt level increases the overall risk.

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Federal-Mogul Has Work To Do On Margins

Seeking Alpha: The Going Is Getting Tougher And W.R. Berkley Is Still Going

Four months ago, I was not too keen on paying up for W.R. Berkley (WRB) shares in the face of an increasingly difficult insurance environment, higher leverage, and a rich valuation. Since that late December piece, WRB shares are basically flat, while my preferred choice, RenRe (RNR), is up around 10%. On a positive note, W.R. Berkley continues to execute at an above-average level, and that makes it a little harder to fret as much about the valuation.

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The Going Is Getting Tougher And W.R. Berkley Is Still Going

Thursday, April 24, 2014

The Motley Fool: Execution Key to Cameron International Corp Unlocking More Value

This looks to be an interesting year in the energy capital equipment space, as large E&P companies like Petrobras, Total, and BP look to move forward with ambitious plans to develop deepwater fields. While order growth may not be as strong for companies like Cameron (NYSE: CAM  ) , National Oilwell (NYSE: NOV  ) , FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI  ) , General Electric, or Drill-Quip (NYSE: DRQ  ) , it is definitely an opportunity to execute and show operational excellence. In particular, Cameron needs to show that its $11 billion backlog can be successfully converted into higher-margin cash flows.

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Execution Key to Cameron International Corp Unlocking More Value

The Motley Fool: $13 Billion Bold Play: Zimmer Holdings, Inc's Purchase of Biomet

In mid-December I wrote that there was at least some chance that ortho giant Zimmer (NYSE: ZMH  ) would make a bid for Biomet and become the dominant company in hip and knee implants, as well as leverage stronger share in areas like extremities, dental, trauma, and spine. That speculation has come to pass, as Zimmer has announced a $13.35 billion bid for Biomet. Assuming the deal passes regulatory scrunity, Zimmer is likely to see meaningful cost synergy, but there are risks involved in devoting such a large amount of capital to a market with some growth challenges.

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$13 Billion Bold Play: Zimmer Holdings, Inc's Purchase of Biomet

Seeking Alpha: Lincoln Electric Comes Up A Little Short Amidst Sluggish Markets

The much looked-for industrial recovery seems to be a little behind schedule, or at least that's one possible interpretation of weak welding results from Lincoln Electric (LECO) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW). With Colfax (CFX) due to report tomorrow (as of this writing), investors will have a more complete picture of a market segment that often correlates pretty closely with overall economic activity, but the picture isn't as strong as analysts and investors had hoped.

Lincoln often trades at a premium valuation, and with double-digit ROICs in the nine of the last ten years, it's not hard to see why. With that, I'm tempted to think of pullbacks in the stock as buying opportunities for long-term investors, though I recognize the risk that a prolonged period of sluggishness in welding volume will weaken the stock further.

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Lincoln Electric Comes Up A Little Short Amidst Sluggish Markets

Seeking Alpha: Growth And Self-Improvement Versus Value At TCF Financial

Regional mid-cap bank TCF Financial (TCB) hasn't been shy about changing its business model to adapt to the new realities of the banking market. The company has cleared out a lot of its high-cost capital and shifted its operational focus towards a national specialty/niche lending platform with a low-cost local deposit base. The model TCF Financial is following carries above-average risks and the shares are not particularly cheap by convention means, but this bank looks poised to be an above-average grower at a time when bank earnings growth is hard to find.

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Growth And Self-Improvement Versus Value At TCF Financial

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan Find an Alternative To Valeant?

No one will accuse Valeant (NYSE: VRX  ) CEO Mike Pearson of lacking boldness. He has laid out a strategy for turning Valeant into one of the largest pharmaceutical/med-tech companies in the world and has proven more than willing to turn to bold M&A moves to make it happen. Valeant's latest move is far and away the largest – a $47 billion bid (at the time of the offer) for Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) – but the target's acceptance is hardly a sure thing and the company's views about the pharma industry may give investors reason for pause regarding the long-term strategy.

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Can Allergan Find an Alternative To Valeant?

The Motley Fool: Illumina Inc's Seemingly Endless Victory Lap

It gets harder and harder to criticize a company's valuation when that company continues to surpass expectations and build its lead on its rivals. That is the basic story for Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN  ) , as this company continues to distance itself from Thermo Fisher (NYSE: TMO  ) and other would-be sequencing competitors and build up its bona fides in the diagnostics market. With a diagnostics opportunity at least twice as large as the $2 billion sequencing market (and growing at a double-digit rate), there seems to be enough growth potential to keep investors keenly interested in this name.

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Illumina Inc's Seemingly Endless Victory Lap

Seeking Alpha: Almirall Quietly Building A Better Business

Definitely not a household name for most American readers, Spain's Almirall SA (OTC:LBTSF) (ALM.MC) is building an interesting specialty pharmaceutical business for itself in Europe. Roughly 80% of the company's sales are in Europe (half of that in Spain) and the company still depends upon in-licensed products for close to half of its sales, but aclidinium and a newly expanded dermatology business could lead to meaningful revenue growth and margin leverage in the coming years.

Almirall certainly still has challenges in front of it, including getting a combo version of aclidinium through the FDA approval process and bulking up its drug development efforts, but the forward valuation doesn't seem demanding and mid-cap drug companies are being hunted to extinction in the M&A market.

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Almirall Quietly Building A Better Business

Seeking Alpha: Aging Wells And Deepwater Expansion Bodes Well For Helix Energy Solutions

Investors haven't been too fond of offshore energy service plays over the last six months, with shares of companies like Oceaneering (OII), GulfMark (GLF), Tidewater (TDW), and Technip (OTCQX:TKPPY) all in the red. Against a peer group that has declined from around 5% to 20%, Helix Energy Solutions' (HLX) roughly 5% decline doesn't seem quite as bad. More importantly, the company's backlog continues to build and the company is likely looking at many years of well intervention deepwater support work. Helix looks about as undervalued as its peer group, but the company's more aggressive newbuild program and increasing acceptance of the company's well intervention approach could lead to outperformance.

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Aging Wells And Deepwater Expansion Bodes Well For Helix Energy Solutions

Seeking Alpha: GulfMark Looking At Short-Term Worries And Long-Term Opportunities

GulfMark Offshore (GLF) has a high-quality, high-spec modern marine vessel fleet, but investors presently seem more concerned about the risks of delays in new rig deployments in the Gulf of Mexico than the opportunities offered by higher utilization and dayrates in the North Sea and GoM in the coming years. GulfMark isn't hands down a screaming bargain today, but I believe the current market conditions support a bullish outlook for profit and cash flow generation over the next couple of years.

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GulfMark Looking At Short-Term Worries And Long-Term Opportunities

Seeking Alpha: Sterling Strengthens The Business, But Umpqua Not Exactly Cheap

There's likely always going to be a place for local/regional banks that focus on customer service and deep relationships as opposed to cross-selling and cost efficiency. Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) is one such bank in the Pacific Northwest, where it has the #4 position in Oregon behind Bank Of America (BAC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) and the #7 position in Washington state.

Umpqua has a lot going for it, including an uncommon retail-oriented branch network and strong growth opportunities in leasing. The acquisition of Sterling not only gives the company more scale in its core operating areas, but also the prospect of synergies and cost leverage and a more balanced loan book. The biggest problem is that the Street is already pretty favorably disposed toward Umpqua and the shares seem to factor in some pretty bullish expectations already.

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Sterling Strengthens The Business, But Umpqua Not Exactly Cheap

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Motley Fool: Is This a Good Deal for Novartis AG and GlaxoSmithKline plc?

This seems to be a week for Big Pharma to do big things, and Novartis (NYSE: NVS  ) and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  ) are certainly doing their part. The two companies announced a series of transactions that seem to offer "win-win" opportunities to clean up and consolidate some non-core operations for both companies. Though it seems like Glaxo is getting the better deal, there's arguably less risk to the Novartis side of the transactions.

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Is This a Good Deal for Novartis AG and GlaxoSmithKline plc?

Seeking Alpha: Cepheid's Results And Shares Are On Different Paths

Within the higher-growth molecular diagnostics segment of diagnostics, Cepheid (CPHD) remains one of the real up-and-comers. Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) still has quite a bit more market share than Cepheid (and/or anybody else), but Cepheid stands shoulder to shoulder with big names like Abbott (ABT), Becton Dickinson (BDX), and Hologic (HOLX) and actually has leading share in terms of systems placement. Margins are still a "build it and they will come" sort of proposition, but as Cepheid continues to develop and launch high-volume tests, it should be in position to reap significant leverage down the road.

The concern here is that the market is already a long ways down that road in terms of valuation. Even if the company can more than double its share of the MDx market and generate FCF margins on par with the best companies, the shares are already well ahead of the implied value. Assigning Cepheid the typical top-of-the-range med-tech growth multiple of 8.0x forward sales produces a more attractive $55 target, more than 20% above today's price, but that multiple may be harder to maintain if the market really is turning away from aggressive growth stories in the healthcare space.

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Cepheid's Results And Shares Are On Different Paths

Seeking Alpha: Can Coca-Cola Amatil Bring Back The Fizz?

Bottling is often overstated as a great business. Bottling and selling assorted flavored sugar waters with Coca-Cola (KO) or PepsiCo (PEP) labels can be a license to print money in some cases, but other factors like competition, consumer preferences, and the power of retailers can make a big difference. Investors in Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAY) have seen just how significant these factors can be, as the shares of what has been regarded as one of the best-run Coca-Cola bottlers are down more than 40% over the past year as a variety of factors have combined to undermine profits.

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Can Coca-Cola Amatil Bring Back The Fizz?

Seeking Alpha: Time To Stock Up On Stock Building Supply

In the relatively short time it has been a publicly-traded company, Stock Building Supply (STCK) has been a solid performer and a good way to play improving residential housing construction. Up about 30% from early August, Stock has been outperformed by Universal Forest Products (UFPI), which has climbed about 40%, but has outperformed Headwaters (HW) and Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) by wide margins. With the company picking up more share of new projects and looking to improve its mix toward higher-margin products, better results and a higher stock price seem like reasonable assumptions today.

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Time To Stock Up On Stock Building Supply

Seeking Alpha: High Costs Leave Copper Mountain Mining Leveraged To Higher Prices

Costs matter in mining, but not always in the way that investors think. All things considered, it is better to have the lowest possible cost of production, but companies like Copper Mountain Mining (OTCPK:CPPMF, (CUM.TO)) with elevated costs can offer more upside when commodity prices rise. This company has done many things right, including getting its southern British Columbia mine up and running both on time and on budget, but production challenges and high costs loom as ongoing challenges. These shares aren't tremendously interesting at prevailing prices, but if copper goes on a tear, these shares should outperform the peer group.

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High Costs Leave Copper Mountain Mining Leveraged To Higher Prices

Monday, April 21, 2014

The Motley Fool: Pfizer, Inc. Rebuffed: Is AstraZeneca plc Worth Another Try?

Big-time pharma mergers have had a mixed track record, with large combinations often leading to significant cost reductions (and firings) in sales and administration but at the cost of large disruptions to R&D. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) is apparently not afraid to give it another try, as word came out over the Easter holiday that the company has approached AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN  ) with a $100 billion-plus bid to acquire this once-struggling pharma giant.

Time will tell if Pfizer can coax AstraZeneca to the negotiating table and seal a deal, but such a combination may not be as big of a risk for Pfizer as it may immediately seem.

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Pfizer, Inc. Rebuffed: Is AstraZeneca plc Worth Another Try?

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Has First Cash Financial Seen The Turn?

The core pawn business at First Cash Financial (FCFS) has definitely slowed, with weak conditions in both Mexico and the U.S. That the company has managed this better than most of its rivals is not all that much comfort, particularly as weaker scrap and retail margins coupled with higher store expenses has actually led to shrinking operating income.

The good news is that conditions may be already starting to improve in Mexico. Discount retailers are seeing improving traffic and are starting to pull back on more aggressive discounting, while consumer confidence and job growth are back on the way up. This may not be a sharp rebound year for First Cash, and investors are likely getting restless in regards to seeing/hearing more about expansion into new markets, but the valuation is attractive enough to make it all worth the wait.

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Has First Cash Financial Seen The Turn?

Seeking Alpha: As Palo Alto Networks Disrupts The Market, More Gains Can Come

Next-gen security company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) certainly does not look all that cheap on backward-looking metrics like price/sales, but the company's share gain prospects and well above-average growth could lead to more price appreciation from here. Palo Alto already generates pretty solid free cash flow margins with less than 15% market share, and as the company looks to turn up the pressure on Cisco (CSCO) and Check Point (CHKP), margin leverage could move higher.

Certainly, there a lot of words like "could" and "potential" when it comes to Palo Alto. The company has built itself into a low-teens market share holder in the network security space, but Cisco, Check Point, Fortinet (FTNT) and the rest are not going to roll over. Likewise, there are ongoing concerns about the company's litigation with Juniper (JNPR), the direction of future network security threats and solutions, and the fundamental long-term profitability of the business. Expectations for Palo Alto are demanding, and the risk is above-average, but this still shapes up as a hybrid hardware/software company worth a closer look.

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As Palo Alto Networks Disrupts The Market, More Gains Can Come

Seeking Alpha: Can Black Earth Farming Grow Profits?

It looks like enthusiasm has drained out of the global farmland market, as owners in Canada, the U.S., and Brazil are seeing either slower increases or actual declines in appraised value. This is not altogether surprising. While it is true that the global population is growing and these people will need food, that doesn't mean particular markets cannot and do not get overheated when investors suddenly see it as "the next big thing."

While I've written at some length about Brazilian and Argentine agriculture companies like Adecoagro (AGRO), Cresud (CRESY), and SLC Agricola (OTCPK:SLCJY), this time around I'm interested in Black Earth Farming (OTC:BLERF). The legal structure of the company is fairly convoluted; the parent company is based in the Channel Islands, the subsidiaries are legally Cypriot and Russian companies, the shares are listed in Sweden as Swedish Depository Receipts, and the U.S. ticker is the ADR of those shares. As the farmland assets are in Russia, I'm going to go with calling this a Russian farmland company.

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Can Black Earth Farming Grow Profits?

Seeking Alpha: Whiting Petroleum Working On The Second Act

Whiting Petroleum (WLL) has built itself over the years into one of the largest landholders in the Bakken, but instead of giving the company a victory lap, the Street is worried about whether that acreage is now too mature. Not only does Whiting's Williston acreage still have more than a little life left in it, this isn't a one-play story, and the company's potential in the Niobrara is definitely worthwhile. Investors have more than a few good investing options in the oil and gas sector today, but Whiting is worth a closer look.

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Whiting Petroleum Working On The Second Act

Thursday, April 17, 2014

The Motley Fool: Even With A Change At The Top, Danaher Corporation Will Roll On

Multi-industry conglomerate Danaher (NYSE: DHR  ) definitely buried the lede this quarter, as news of the unexpected retirement of well-liked CEO H. Lawrence Culp next year overshadowed an otherwise "OK ... but not great" quarter. Losing a good CEO is also a risk for a company, but Danaher is a consummate example of a company that reloads instead of rebuilds. These shares are not particularly cheap and they rarely ever are, but an overreaction to this news could perhaps create a window of opportunity.

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Even With A Change At The Top, Danaher Corporation Will Roll On

Seeking Alpha: Xenoport's Path Is Long, But The Potential Is There

Potential is a word you hear a lot in biotech, but it's also worth remembering a quote (apocryphally attributed to former Dallas Cowboys defensive lineman Randy White) that goes "potential is a fancy French word that means you haven't done yet".

If XenoPort (XNPT) can establish '829 as a true peer to Biogen Idec's (BIIB) Tecfidera, or possibly better in some respects, the stock is going to do very, very well. Of course, if the data don't come through, this company has very little left other than a record of repeated disappointments.

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Xenoport's Path Is Long, But The Potential Is There

Seeking Alpha: After A Rough Patch, Tidewater Looks A Lot More Interesting

Back in October Tidewater (TDW) was one of the relatively few energy service companies that looked overvalued to me. While I liked the company's strong position in offshore and deepwater supply vessels, I just didn't think that paying such a high multiple was reasonable given risks in the North Sea and Angola, not to mention potential delays in floater and jackup deliveries.

As it turns out, the shares declined more than 20% since that piece, with the stock taking a big hit on disappointing third quarter results. I don't see the results as a sign of any particular operating deficiency, though, and I believe the reset in valuation and expectations makes this a much more interesting name to consider today.

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After A Rough Patch, Tidewater Looks A Lot More Interesting

Seeking Alpha: Unit Corp. Still Not Getting Its Full Due


About six months ago, I thought that Unit Corp. (UNT) was undervalued by about 20% to 25% as the company's awkward mix of E&P, land drilling, and midstream assets led it to being overlooked. The shares have risen more than 27% since then, with much of that coming on good fourth quarter results and a significant improvement in sentiment for land drillers and service providers. Enthusiasm over land drillers may be getting a little overdone, but Unit still looks too cheap on a sum-of-the-parts basis and offers worthwhile upside from its E&P drilling program.



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Unit Corp. Still Not Getting Its Full Due

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The Motley Fool: St. Jude Medical Inc.: In-Line Is Just Not Good Enough

It's hard to call it a bad thing when Wall Street likes a stock, but rising expectations can create problems of their own. St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ  ) seems to have done a good job of selling the Street on the idea that it has turned over a new leaf and that accelerating growth is around the corner.

Sell-side price targets are about 20% higher now than at the beginning of 2014, and the buy/hold/sell recommendation breakdown has moved from 11-10-3 to 14-8-2 over the past three months, though the EPS targets for 2014 and 2015 have hardly budged. That optimism may well explain why St. Jude's "good enough" first quarter wasn't quite good enough for investors.

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St. Jude Medical Inc.: In-Line Is Just Not Good Enough

The Motley Fool: Abbott Labs Earnings: Still Marking Time

Like many other large med-tech companies, Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  ) remains an exercise in frustration right now. There are pressures throughout most of the company's business lines, with only the diagnostics business really showing much growth. Although Abbott's results were a bit weak compared to expectations, analysts and investors knew that the company was going to go through this lull and longer-term expectations are still fairly bullish.

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Abbott Labs Earnings: Still Marking Time

Seeking Alpha: Frustrating To Value, Bank Of The Ozarks Keeps Growing

Valuing normal banks on the basis of their returns on tangible equity, tangible book value, and long-term returns on equity usually works pretty well. For better and for worse, Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) is not at all a "normal bank" and investors have to make their peace with a demanding valuation to take part in a very strong, very well-run bank growth story.

The growth side of Bank of the Ozarks looks fine. While the company is seeing more competition for lending, the bank's capabilities in specialty and complex real estate lending sets it apart. Bank of the Ozarks also has the option to expand its leasing operations and use its equity to expand its asset base. It's tough to put together a valuation model that goes much past the low $60s for these shares, but I don't have any particular expectation of getting them cheap while the growth story remains intact.

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Frustrating To Value, Bank Of The Ozarks Keeps Growing

Seeking Alpha: Even After A Little Rally, Credicorp Could Have More Headroom

Shares of Peru's largest bank, Credicorp (BAP) have spent the last six months basically just hanging around, with the shares wobbling between $125 and $140. Investors have been mulling over changes in Peru's economy, the de-dollarization of the banking sector, loan growth and default trends, as well as company-specific issues like recent disappointments in earnings and the promising acquisition of Mibanco.

I hope it goes almost without saying that investing in a Peruvian bank carries certain risks above and beyond your typical investment, though clearly investing in banks like Citigroup (C) and so on is hardly risk-free. This looks like a well-run bank, though, and a company that is structured to benefit from both the growth of the Peruvian economy and the maturation of the Peruvian financial sector. Shares appear undervalued on both an ROE and book value basis, with upside to $160 on relatively conservative assumptions.

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Even After A Little Rally, Credicorp Could Have More Headroom

Seeking Alpha: WEX Still Has Good Growth Prospects, But A Fair Valuation

Shares of corporate payments specialist WEX (WEX) have hardly been still over the last six months, trading between $80 and $101 and sporting a beta (according to Yahoo! Finance) of 1.96. Even so, they are almost exactly where they were when I wrote that the company was a well-run player in attractive markets, but that the shares seemed a little expensive.

WEX has made some important moves since October, including acquiring operations in Brazil and acquiring Exxon Mobil's (XOM) European ESSO card business, but actual organic transaction growth has been fairly sluggish and the company's B2B virtual MasterCard (MA) program is still a faster-growing work in progress. I do see multiple opportunities for WEX to do better, but there's already a meaningful amount of growth baked into the share price and I still find myself wishing for a better entry price.

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WEX Still Has Good Growth Prospects, But A Fair Valuation

Seeking Alpha: XL Group Plc Is Over-Reserved, But Not That Undervalued

XL Group plc (XL) may have nearly gone out of business during the worst of the credit crisis, but in the time since the company has done a pretty decent job of repairing its capital situation, even if at a high cost in terms of dilution. The bigger question today is whether the company can generate substantially better results for the long-term - while the company looks over-reserved and over-capitalized, the nature of its underwriting may well limit the upside.

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XL Group Plc Is Over-Reserved, But Not That Undervalued

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The Motley Fool: How Much Has Merck Shaken Up the Hepatitis C Race?

Even the wildest Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD  ) bulls seemed to acknowledge that the company was not going to grab and hold 100% share of the hepatitis C (HCV) market. Now the question seems to be shifting to just how much share rivals like AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) , Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) , Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY  ) , Johnson & Johnson, and others can credibly hope to gain.

Recent data presentations at EASL continue to support the notion that Gilead has the best regimen for treatment-naive patients with the most common HCV genotypes in North America and Western Europe. AbbVie and Merck are looking increasingly competitive in more challenging patients, though. What's more, Gilead's decision to pursue aggressive pricing for its regimen, and the resistance of groups like Express Scripts, raises the question of whether price may prove to be a competitive option.

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How Much Has Merck Shaken Up the Hepatitis C Race?

The Motley Fool: Johnson & Johnson's Earnings Report Impresses

If you're going to have a "messy" quarter, you probably couldn't do it much better than Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) did in the first quarter. Devices and Consumer continue to log disappointing results, but the higher-margin Pharma business is more than making up the difference. Priced for total annual returns in the mid-to-high single digits, Johnson & Johnson isn't the cheapest health care play these days, but it remains a good all-weather pick with one of the best-growing large drug franchises. 

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Johnson & Johnson's Earnings Report Impresses

The Motley Fool: This Forgotten Pharma Could Be a Hit for Your Portfolio

Within the world of Big Pharma, Roche (NASDAQOTH: RHHBY  ) offers a pretty compelling mix. Not only does Roche have one of the strongest oncology platforms today, it also offers one of the deepest pipelines. The company's non-oncology pipeline is not as strong in volume, but could well make up for that in quality if a couple of high-risk trials go the right way. Roche's modest debt and large cash generation capability also raises the prospect of M&A as biotech valuations quickly become more reasonable.

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This Forgotten Pharma Could Be a Hit for Your Portfolio

Monday, April 14, 2014

The Motley Fool: Edwards Lifesciences Corp Scores A Potentially Major Legal Ruling Against Medtronic

If a court ruling made late on Friday holds up, the battle for market share in the U.S. between Edwards Lifesciences'  (NYSE: EW  ) Sapien family of transcatheter heart valves and Medtronic's (NYSE: MDT  ) CoreValve may be over before it begins. In a rare move for the med-tech industry, a judge granted a motion for a preliminary injunction against sales of the CoreValve that would effectively put Medtronic on ice until at least 2016. Medtronic is going to fight this decision, but it definitely seems likely to reignite optimism for Edwards' position in this market.

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Edwards Lifesciences Corp Scores A Potentially Major Legal Ruling Against Medtronic