A few weeks into 2012, it looks like investors are much more eager to take on some risk in their portfolios and biotechs are coming back into favor. With that in mind, it makes sense to check out some of the promising biotechs that languished a bit in 2011. Although Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ: NKTR) hasn't had much bad news in a while, in the world of biotech "no news" can be almost just as bad and it seems that the market has perhaps forgotten this name a bit.
Changing Course
Nektar has long been in the business of partnering with larger pharmaceutical companies and licensing its proprietary PEGylation technology. PEGylation basically introduces polyethylene glycol into a compound and alters its performance in the body - most notably by slowing the process of clearing in from the body. Companies including Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and Merck (NYSE: MRK) have licensed this technology for major drugs like Neulasta and PEG-INTRON, but Nektar gets only relatively small royalties for this technology.
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Nektar Therapeutics: Often Forgotten, But Worth A Look
Monday, January 23, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
Investopedia: Linear Breaks Formation
It looks like the third week of January is when a little good news came back into the semiconductor world. Though Altera (Nasdaq:ALTR) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) previously suggested the worst was about to be over, ironically while lowering guidance for the fourth calendar quarter, equipment vendor ASML (Nasdaq:ASML) and analog chip company Linear Technology (Nasdaq:LLTC) gave outright encouraging news with their respective quarterly reports.
Results Still Not Exactly Pretty
To be sure, enthusiasm about the Linear story is about what's going to happen and not about what did happen. Results in the company's fiscal second quarter weren't that great, as revenue dropped 11% on a sequential basis and 23% on a year-on-year comparison. The revenue shortfall was largely just a byproduct of ongoing industry de-stocking throughout industrial, communications, auto and other markets.
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Results Still Not Exactly Pretty
To be sure, enthusiasm about the Linear story is about what's going to happen and not about what did happen. Results in the company's fiscal second quarter weren't that great, as revenue dropped 11% on a sequential basis and 23% on a year-on-year comparison. The revenue shortfall was largely just a byproduct of ongoing industry de-stocking throughout industrial, communications, auto and other markets.
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Investopedia: ASML Seeing Light At The End Of Semiconductor Tunnel
Lithography specialist ASML (Nasdaq:ASML) isn't a typical semiconductor equipment company. ASML owns a significant share of its market and has actually seen prices strengthen over the last decade, while most equipment companies have gone the other route. With ASML's equipment occupying a key space in chip fabrication, investors may well see management's strong guidance as a sign that the semiconductor industry really is on track to rebound in 2012.
A Strong End to the Year
Although ASML did report both sequential and annual declines in revenue for the fourth quarter, results were nonetheless better than analysts had expected. Revenue fell 17% from the third quarter, but was about 7% above the average analyst estimate. For the quarter, ASML saw system unit sales fall 24% to 41 units.
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A Strong End to the Year
Although ASML did report both sequential and annual declines in revenue for the fourth quarter, results were nonetheless better than analysts had expected. Revenue fell 17% from the third quarter, but was about 7% above the average analyst estimate. For the quarter, ASML saw system unit sales fall 24% to 41 units.
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Investopedia: PNC Delivers A Surprisingly Average Quarter
Being a well-respected company can have its drawbacks. It's hard to find anyone who doesn't generally think well of PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), and this regional bank has done well both through and coming out of the credit crunch. With that excellence of execution also comes higher expectations and though PNC actually did pretty well in the fourth quarter by reasonable standards, the Street may nevertheless be disappointed that it wasn't once again one of the best of the best.
Core Results OK, but Some Definite Challenges
PNC did OK in terms of revenue, announcing that revenue fell 5% from last year and 1% from the September quarter; a result that was in line with the expectations. Within this, reported net interest income (NII) rose 1%, while core NII climbed 3% after some accounting adjustments. Although PNC's net interest margin erosion of three basis points (BPS) is actually good compared to what was expected going into this cycle, it doesn't look as good relative to what we've seen from the likes of Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) or Citigroup (NYSE:C). Still, in absolute terms, PNC runs a fundamentally attractively profitable business.
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Core Results OK, but Some Definite Challenges
PNC did OK in terms of revenue, announcing that revenue fell 5% from last year and 1% from the September quarter; a result that was in line with the expectations. Within this, reported net interest income (NII) rose 1%, while core NII climbed 3% after some accounting adjustments. Although PNC's net interest margin erosion of three basis points (BPS) is actually good compared to what was expected going into this cycle, it doesn't look as good relative to what we've seen from the likes of Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) or Citigroup (NYSE:C). Still, in absolute terms, PNC runs a fundamentally attractively profitable business.
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Seeking Alpha: If Europe Gets Weaker, Be Ready To Buy Intuitive Surgical
The frustrating reality with Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is that there is not going to be any easy way to get into this stock. Investors either have to accept that the high valuation is the admission price for the best growth story in med-tech or they have to hope for a stumble that drives momentum investors away for a bit. That's a shame, as this is definitely a company to own at the right price.
A Nearly Flawless Quarter In Most Respects
Intuitive reported nearly 28% sales growth in the fourth quarter, easily exceeding even the highest guess on the Street despite a steady upward march in estimates. Revenue growth was quite well-balanced, as revenue from system sales rose 27%, instrument revenue rose 30%, and service revenue climbed 24%.
Intuitive Surgical's robots and proprietary tools have long commanded great margins and this quarter was no exception. Gross margin expanded half a point from last year and about 10bp sequentially, while operating income rose more than 30%.
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If Europe Gets Weaker, Be Ready To Buy Intuitive Surgical
A Nearly Flawless Quarter In Most Respects
Intuitive reported nearly 28% sales growth in the fourth quarter, easily exceeding even the highest guess on the Street despite a steady upward march in estimates. Revenue growth was quite well-balanced, as revenue from system sales rose 27%, instrument revenue rose 30%, and service revenue climbed 24%.
Intuitive Surgical's robots and proprietary tools have long commanded great margins and this quarter was no exception. Gross margin expanded half a point from last year and about 10bp sequentially, while operating income rose more than 30%.
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If Europe Gets Weaker, Be Ready To Buy Intuitive Surgical
Seeking Alpha: FDA Rejection Of Dapaglifozin Means Little For Lexicon
Shares of small biotech Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX) sold off sharply in the wake of news that the FDA issued it's much-expected rejection letter to Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and AstraZeneca (AZN) for their experimental diabetes drug, dapaglifozin ("dapa"). Although there are certainly similarities between dapaglifozin and LX4211, arguably the key compound in Lexicon's pipeline, it is the differences that will ultimately decide this contest.
Bad News, As Expected
It interests me how analysts and financial commentators will talk about an event occurring "as expected" and nevertheless still managing to surprise a few investors. In this case, the rejection of dapa was hardly surprising. When Bristol-Myers and AstraZeneca had their panel meeting, the panel voted 9-6 to recommend rejecting the application. Although the FDA has been known to override these votes and grant approval anyway, the safety issues raised by the panel and the FDA's generally very conservative stance on diabetes drug made rejection a virtual no-brainer.
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FDA Rejection Of Dapaglifozin Means Little For Lexicon
Bad News, As Expected
It interests me how analysts and financial commentators will talk about an event occurring "as expected" and nevertheless still managing to surprise a few investors. In this case, the rejection of dapa was hardly surprising. When Bristol-Myers and AstraZeneca had their panel meeting, the panel voted 9-6 to recommend rejecting the application. Although the FDA has been known to override these votes and grant approval anyway, the safety issues raised by the panel and the FDA's generally very conservative stance on diabetes drug made rejection a virtual no-brainer.
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FDA Rejection Of Dapaglifozin Means Little For Lexicon
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Seeking Alpha: UnitedHealth Posts Positive Earnings; Looks Like A Good Contrarian Bet
Just as deregulation tends to boost industry-wide returns and valuation multiples, the imposition of regulations tends to spook investors and compress multiples. Certainly life has changed quite a bit for health insurance companies in the last four years, but Wall Street may yet be expecting a worst-case scenario that is unlikely to materialize. Although UnitedHealth (UNH) is facing more government influence and interference in its operations, UnitedHealth's scale and operational performance should allow it to still win in the end.
A Good Close To The Year
UnitedHealth is so big now that it doesn't actually turn on a dime. Nevertheless, there were definitely some encouraging developments this quarter.
Reported consolidated revenue rose about 8% (and more than 2% sequentially) as sluggish growth (up less than 2%) in the core managed care business was augmented by 54% growth in OptumHealth and 19% growth in OptumRx. Reported revenue growth at OptumInsight seemed non-existent, but this was due to the disposal of the clinical trials basis; on a like-for-like basis, revenue actually grew 18%.
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UnitedHealth Posts Positive Earnings; Looks Like A Good Contrarian Bet
A Good Close To The Year
UnitedHealth is so big now that it doesn't actually turn on a dime. Nevertheless, there were definitely some encouraging developments this quarter.
Reported consolidated revenue rose about 8% (and more than 2% sequentially) as sluggish growth (up less than 2%) in the core managed care business was augmented by 54% growth in OptumHealth and 19% growth in OptumRx. Reported revenue growth at OptumInsight seemed non-existent, but this was due to the disposal of the clinical trials basis; on a like-for-like basis, revenue actually grew 18%.
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UnitedHealth Posts Positive Earnings; Looks Like A Good Contrarian Bet
FinancialEdge: Is Yahoo's Real Opportunity What You Think It Is?
Flogging the rumors of a Yahoo! (Nasdaq:YHOO) buyout is a well-rehearsed move among financial journalists, over the last year or so. Certainly this one-time internet darling still captures a lot of attention, as did the stories about Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) or Alibaba possibly acquiring it. In all of the discussions of what might happen to Yahoo!, though, it seems like there is relatively little acknowledgment that the company have still have its own independent future. (For other acquisitions, see Biggest Merger and Acquisition Disasters.)
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Investopedia: M&T Bank Looking Like A Diesel
There's a good reason that you won't see a diesel-powered car racing around Daytona next month, nor under the hood in the next Ferrari or Lamborghini. Diesel has many good points, including reliability and long-run power, but it is not known for sounding good, looking good or demonstrating great acceleration. That comparison comes to mind now when looking at M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB) - while the underlying quality of this bank is exceptional, it's going to take time for operations to get back up to speed.
A Disappointing Q4 in Some Respects
Bank earnings always have certain charges, gains and exceptions, so M&T Bank's earnings are not unusual in that respect. All of that said, the earnings reported this quarter were somewhat disappointing.
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A Disappointing Q4 in Some Respects
Bank earnings always have certain charges, gains and exceptions, so M&T Bank's earnings are not unusual in that respect. All of that said, the earnings reported this quarter were somewhat disappointing.
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Seeking Alpha: The Chip Recovery Is Underway At Xilinx
There's a saying that goes, "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time is enemy action". With a small collection of chip company earnings in hand, it does look like the long-await recovering in semiconductors is at hand. As is so often the case, though, the markets have anticipated the reality and Xilinx (XLNX) shares have been bid up to something less than a full bargain.
An Encouraging Third Quarter
Certainly a little context is important when looking at Xilinx's report. For starters, while it was an encouraging report, results were still at the lower end of original (before the late-quarter revision from management) guidance range. It's also important to remember that sales were down - down 8% sequentially and 10% from last year.
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The Chip Recovery Is Underway At Xilinx
An Encouraging Third Quarter
Certainly a little context is important when looking at Xilinx's report. For starters, while it was an encouraging report, results were still at the lower end of original (before the late-quarter revision from management) guidance range. It's also important to remember that sales were down - down 8% sequentially and 10% from last year.
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The Chip Recovery Is Underway At Xilinx
Seeking Alpha: A Strong Fourth Quarter May Change Perceptions On BB&T
Going into the credit crisis, BB&T (BBT) had the record and reputation of one of the best banks in the country. Through the credit crisis BB&T proved that its underwriting was sound and that it didn't need assistance to stay in business (and in fact was able to do a sizable FDIC-assisted deal). Post-crisis, though, it seems like a lot of banking analysts have collective amnesia and seem to think that BB&T isn't the bank that it used to be. Perhaps a solid end to 2011 and healthy guidance will start to move attitudes back.
Good Numbers To End The Year
There have been varying degrees of "clean" earnings from large banks like Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC (PNC), and U.S. Bancorp (USB) this reporting season, and BB&T comes in somewhere near the middle. Reported earnings of $0.55 were better than the average guess from analysts, and the adjusted earnings of $0.61 were even better. Those adjustments consist primarily of reversing out a $0.09 gain on securities and a $0.19 valuation adjustment on foreclosed real estate. BB&T's earnings included a reserve release of $0.11 - definitely large relative to the reported earnings.
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A Strong Fourth Quarter May Change Perceptions On BB&T
Good Numbers To End The Year
There have been varying degrees of "clean" earnings from large banks like Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC (PNC), and U.S. Bancorp (USB) this reporting season, and BB&T comes in somewhere near the middle. Reported earnings of $0.55 were better than the average guess from analysts, and the adjusted earnings of $0.61 were even better. Those adjustments consist primarily of reversing out a $0.09 gain on securities and a $0.19 valuation adjustment on foreclosed real estate. BB&T's earnings included a reserve release of $0.11 - definitely large relative to the reported earnings.
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A Strong Fourth Quarter May Change Perceptions On BB&T
Seeking Alpha: Bank of the Ozarks Thriving; Consider Buying On Dips
There is no shortage of critics who will bitterly complain about how the Bush and Obama administrations have handled the near-meltdown of the U.S. banking system. One company that is not likely to complain at all is Arkansas's Bank of the Ozarks
(OZRK) as this company has feasted on FDIC-assisted acquisitions and continues to thrive by zigging where others zag. The question, though, is whether the potential returns are still worth the risk.
A Strong Close To The Year
Relative to larger banks like M&T Bank (MTB) or Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of the Ozarks' earnings are relatively clean and simple. Although net earnings did slide about 7% from the third quarter, the bank nevertheless beat the average analyst guess by about two cents.
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Bank Of The Ozarks Thriving; Consider Buying On Dips
(OZRK) as this company has feasted on FDIC-assisted acquisitions and continues to thrive by zigging where others zag. The question, though, is whether the potential returns are still worth the risk.
A Strong Close To The Year
Relative to larger banks like M&T Bank (MTB) or Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of the Ozarks' earnings are relatively clean and simple. Although net earnings did slide about 7% from the third quarter, the bank nevertheless beat the average analyst guess by about two cents.
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Bank Of The Ozarks Thriving; Consider Buying On Dips
Investopedia: Wells Fargo Continues To Show Its Quality
Although Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) certainly made its share of mistakes during the housing bubble, it looks like the company is on track to emerge from the credit crisis as one of the strongest names in banking. Strong while others are still weak, Wells Fargo could yet be on the hunt for assets and expansion opportunities that could take this bank to a new level.
A Good End to the Year
The fourth quarter of 2011 is shaping up to have been a pretty good quarter for the large banks. Wells Fargo surprised with its revenue this quarter, growing 5% from the third quarter and beat the average estimate by about half a billion dollars.
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A Good End to the Year
The fourth quarter of 2011 is shaping up to have been a pretty good quarter for the large banks. Wells Fargo surprised with its revenue this quarter, growing 5% from the third quarter and beat the average estimate by about half a billion dollars.
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Seeking Alpha: Patience With Palomar Could Pay
Few sectors of healthcare have been gutted to the same extent as aesthetics. Although large players with more of a pharmaceutical focus like Allergan (AGN) and Medicis (MRX) have held up reasonably well, that is in large part because a larger part of their business falls under the header of "medically necessary" and is eligible for insurance reimbursement.
For the device companies, particularly the energy-based device (colloquially called "lasers") companies, though, it has been a hard road indeed. While procedure volume has not yet picked up significantly, investors looking for to get in early may want to consider Palomar Medical Technologies (PMTI). If a recovery in aesthetics procedures really is a "sooner or later" event, the low valuation and strong IP could make this an interesting stock again.
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Patience With Palomar Could Pay
For the device companies, particularly the energy-based device (colloquially called "lasers") companies, though, it has been a hard road indeed. While procedure volume has not yet picked up significantly, investors looking for to get in early may want to consider Palomar Medical Technologies (PMTI). If a recovery in aesthetics procedures really is a "sooner or later" event, the low valuation and strong IP could make this an interesting stock again.
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Patience With Palomar Could Pay
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Investopedia: Check Point Looks To A New Model For Familiar Success
Failure to adapt is one of the surest ways for today's winners to become tomorrow's losers. IT security company Check Point Software (Nasdaq:CHKP) looks to be addressing that risk as best it can, with ongoing product development and migration. While this is by no means the cheapest stock out there, investors may still want to consider this name as a somewhat balanced trade-off of growth and value.
Another Solid Quarter to End the Year
Check Point reported that revenue rose 12% in the fourth quarter. That more or less matched the averaged analyst estimate. Deferred revenue, though, was up 19% this quarter and seemed to beat expectations by a more meaningful extent. As Check Point moves on with a somewhat new model, investors should expect deferred revenue to be a more meaningful metric.
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Another Solid Quarter to End the Year
Check Point reported that revenue rose 12% in the fourth quarter. That more or less matched the averaged analyst estimate. Deferred revenue, though, was up 19% this quarter and seemed to beat expectations by a more meaningful extent. As Check Point moves on with a somewhat new model, investors should expect deferred revenue to be a more meaningful metric.
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Investopedia: Does CSX Have The Most Levers To Pull In 2012?
Broadly speaking, these are still good times for the major railroads in the U.S. The economic recovery continues to fuel a decent recovery in volume, while the price advantages of rail versus truck give the companies leverage on pricing. It also certainly isn't hurting that higher-margin intermodal business is growing (albeit still small) part of revenue.
Against this backdrop, almost any rail would be a decent option. Looking at 2012, CSX (NYSE:CSX) may be an underappreciated relative value play among the top rails. The question for CSX is largely about whether the company can achieve cost/efficiency improvements that could drive better earnings performance than its peers. (For related reading, see Rail Traffic Ends 2011 On A High Note.)
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Against this backdrop, almost any rail would be a decent option. Looking at 2012, CSX (NYSE:CSX) may be an underappreciated relative value play among the top rails. The question for CSX is largely about whether the company can achieve cost/efficiency improvements that could drive better earnings performance than its peers. (For related reading, see Rail Traffic Ends 2011 On A High Note.)
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Seeking Alpha: Fastenal Offers Remakrable Growth
Recent developments in the industrial distribution space haven't exactly dispelled the cliché that Grainger (GWW) is the dependable leader, MSC Industrial (MSM) the balanced growth story, and Fastenal (FAST) the real growth dynamo of this triad. Although Fastenal did indeed post solid results in the fourth quarter, investors may want to ask if it makes sense to pay so much for a levered growth play on U.S. industrial activity.
A Solid Fourth Quarter
Analysts expected quite a lot from Fastenal in the fourth quarter, and the company largely delivered. Revenue rose almost 22%, as the company saw excellent growth throughout the fourth quarter. Monthly sales rose 21% in December (on top of a nearly 21% jump in the prior year) and stores open more than two years saw roughly 18% same-store sales growth in the quarter.
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Fastenal Offers Remarkable Growth, But At A High Price
A Solid Fourth Quarter
Analysts expected quite a lot from Fastenal in the fourth quarter, and the company largely delivered. Revenue rose almost 22%, as the company saw excellent growth throughout the fourth quarter. Monthly sales rose 21% in December (on top of a nearly 21% jump in the prior year) and stores open more than two years saw roughly 18% same-store sales growth in the quarter.
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Fastenal Offers Remarkable Growth, But At A High Price
Seeking Alpha : Should Investors Add Adtran After Fourth Quarter Earnings?
Such is the state of business for companies that supply equipment to carriers like Verizon (VZ) like AT&T (T) that not missing numbers is greeted with the enthusiasm usually reserved for beat-and-raise stories. Certainly these are challenging times for last-mile equipment vendor Adtran (ADTN), but increased home and business demand for broadband and ongoing wireless backhaul buildout could spell better times ahead.
Q4 Results - Good Enough Will Do
Adtran's results weren't great, but the performance at other carrier equipment vendors like Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Acme Packet (APKT) wouldn't give any reason to expect them to be so. Nevertheless, a sequential revenue drop of 9% (and a 6% gain from last year) was good enough to meet expectations.
Adtran saw year-on-year growth in both broadband access (up 49%) and internetworking (up 37%), but sequential comparisons were not so exciting (down almost 15% and up about 2%, respectively). Optical access was outright bad, though, as sales dropped 17% from last year and 25% from the third quarter.
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Should Investors Add Adtran After Fourth Quarter Earnings?
Q4 Results - Good Enough Will Do
Adtran's results weren't great, but the performance at other carrier equipment vendors like Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Acme Packet (APKT) wouldn't give any reason to expect them to be so. Nevertheless, a sequential revenue drop of 9% (and a 6% gain from last year) was good enough to meet expectations.
Adtran saw year-on-year growth in both broadband access (up 49%) and internetworking (up 37%), but sequential comparisons were not so exciting (down almost 15% and up about 2%, respectively). Optical access was outright bad, though, as sales dropped 17% from last year and 25% from the third quarter.
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Should Investors Add Adtran After Fourth Quarter Earnings?
Seeking Alpha: A Lack Of Surprises Favors U.S. Bancorp
Never a flashy bank even in the heights of the boom times, U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a pretty good example of what basic "blocking and tackling" can achieve in regional banking. Fourth quarter results were by no means flawless, but U.S. Bancorp continues to perform exceptionally well and may well be one of the best banks in the country today. Better still, widespread investor pessimism on banks has kept a lid on these shares.
A So-So End To The Year
Although U.S. Bancorp had a decent close to the year, it wasn't any kind of blowout. Adjusted earnings of $0.64 just barely beat the consensus, though U.S. Bancorp hasn't had to rely on the large reserve releases of so-called money center banks like JPMorgan (JPM) or Citigroup (C).
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A Lack Of Surprises Favors U.S. Bancorp
A So-So End To The Year
Although U.S. Bancorp had a decent close to the year, it wasn't any kind of blowout. Adjusted earnings of $0.64 just barely beat the consensus, though U.S. Bancorp hasn't had to rely on the large reserve releases of so-called money center banks like JPMorgan (JPM) or Citigroup (C).
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A Lack Of Surprises Favors U.S. Bancorp
Investopedia: Cloud Peak Energy - The Power In Powder
Although 2011 was not an especially strong year for any industrial commodity, it was a pretty lousy year for coal. Export volume stayed pretty high, but momentum was sapped by weakness in met coal and a general cooling-off of what was probably far too much investor enthusiasm to start with. As is almost always the case, it wasn't different this time.
That being said, investors may yet want to bone up on Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD). As a pure play on the closest thing to clean coal, Cloud Peak could see stronger demand in both domestic and export markets, as well perhaps as interest from larger buyers. (For more, see Earning Forecasts: A Primer.)
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That being said, investors may yet want to bone up on Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD). As a pure play on the closest thing to clean coal, Cloud Peak could see stronger demand in both domestic and export markets, as well perhaps as interest from larger buyers. (For more, see Earning Forecasts: A Primer.)
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