While I did like Dover (DOV) as a "slow and steady" performer and a stock where the valuation wasn't out of line with other quality peers back in October, names I preferred more like Eaton (ETN) and Parker-Hannifin (PH) have outperformed, and Dover remains what it was before - a solid "middle of the road" name where management continues to build a reputation for operational rigor and prudent management.
I don't love the valuation, and the prospective return is now on the lower end of the range I see from quality multi-industrials. There's some upside here from M&A and ongoing fundamental outperformance, but Dover doesn't really hit any of the popular "themes" today - it doesn't have superior short-cycle leverage, its cost actions are largely done, it won't be a big player in M&A, and it's not particularly leveraged to areas like bioproduction, HVAC, or green retrofit. None of that will likely matter (or should matter) to long-term shareholders, but for a new money decision today, I don't think Dover is necessarily the best idea.
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