Friday, July 23, 2010

Europe's So-Called Stress Test

So, all of that build up and all of that press ... and for this?

The results of the European banking stress tests are in ... and 84 of 91 passed. Whoop-dee-doo.

I mean, really, if 92% of the banks passed, and the only failures are an already-nationalized German bank, five unlisted Spanish banks, and a Greek bank, what was the point?

Are European banks in better shape than people think? Yeah, probably. I own Societe Generale (Nasdaq: SCGLY) and I happen to think the market is undervaluing that one (though I acknowledge the risk they have with sovereign debt exposure), and Santander (NYSE: STD) certainly seems in good shape.

But to only flunk 7 banks makes me think the whole thing was a stage-managed put-on designed to create phony confidence in the health of the European banking sector. Do not misunderstand; I think there are several high-quality banks in Europe these days (I would add Unicredito to that list, as well perhaps as Danske and a couple of others), but I expected a bit more "stress" from this test.

I dunno ... maybe it is late on Friday and I am just cranky. But consider me unimpressed by these results.

Disclosure - I own shares of Societe Generale

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