Wednesday, August 18, 2010

According to Buffett, MTB and Santander Is Not Imminent

Okay, that was probably a somewhat misleading headline, as Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) CEO Warren Buffett has not actually said a thing recently about M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and the prospects that the company may accept a bid from Santander (NYSE: STD). But, reading between the lines a bit, it seems like a logical assumption.

Commentators fall over themselves running to put up articles about what Buffett/Berkshire is buying or selling as the filings become available. So, these moves are not exactly hard to find. In the latest release, it appears that Buffett sold about 200K shares of MTB over the last quarter.

Now, that is not a big reduction, particularly when he still holds about 5.4 million shares. But it stands to reason that if Buffett really believed a deal was likely or imminent, he would have found other stocks to sell to raise whatever cash he needed.

Would MTB discuss a deal with Buffett? I really do not know. MTB management and Buffett seem to be on similar wavelengths about how to run a business, but we have all heard Buffett claim that he is often much more of a passive investor than most people believe. Then again, he also said some pretty odd things about Moodys (NYSE: MCO) and the credit crisis, so take all of that with a grain of salt.

Still, CEOs and board members often talk to their major shareholders about potential deals, and at a bit under 5%, Buffett would certainly qualify.Accordingly, I take that to mean that Buffett's sense is that there is little likelihood of a deal happening soon.

Now, if Santander offers $110 tonight that could all change quickly. But for now I think we can safely assume that MTB is no more than lukewarm on whatever proposals Santander has sent its way.

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