Brazil - Rates Shimmying Upward
Just in time for Carnival, Brazil's central bank decided to hike rates by another 50 basis points, moving the benchmark rate to 11.75%. Just as it is often said that investors should not "fight the Fed," investors in Brazilian equities have had to swallow hard as Brazil's government tries to find the right path between inflation and growth.
Even though commodity prices, a major component of Brazil's economy, have been strong both under ground (copper, iron, and gold) and above ground (soybeans and other agricultural products), that has not helped the market so much. The iShares Brazil Index ETF (NYSE:EWZ) has lost almost 4% year-to-date as of this writing, and many riskier ETFs have had it worse. The Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:BRF) has dropped 8.6%, while the thinly-traded Global X Brazil Consumer (Nasdaq:BRAQ) and Global X Brazil Financial (Nasdaq:BRAF) have fallen 12% and 9% respectively. For those who think investing in Brazil is not quite risky enough, the ProShares Ultra Brazil (NYSE:UBR) are down 8.6%. Oddly enough, while rates keep climbing, the EGShares Brazil Infrastructure Fund (Nasdaq:BRXX) has only seen declines of about 1%.
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