For small biotechs not all that much changes for long stretches of time … and then things can change very quickly. Aptose Biosciences (NASDAQ:APTO)
is moving ahead with its Phase Ib study of lead drug APTO-253, an oral
KLF4 activator being developed as a possible treatment for hematological
cancers including acute myeloid leukemia (or AML). Results from this
study, which is testing the drug in other cancers beside AML, should be
available late this year - most likely at the December ASH annual
meeting. If the results show meaningful anti-cancer activity, I believe
Aptose will become a more viable investment, even though the company is a
long way from FDA approval and faces numerous challenges.
I
continue to believe that $13 is a reasonable fair value for these shares
on the assumption of 15% odds of success in AML and myelodysplastic
syndromes (or MDS). If Aptose reports solid data, those approval odds
can improve over time (improving the fair value), but likewise there is a
very real risk of a total wipeout here - the more typical fate for most
biotech investments.
Read more here:
Aptose Still Looks Like A High-Risk/Reward Call Option
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