More Data From Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, But Not Much More Clarity

If Alnylam (NASDAQ:ALNY) pays by the press release, its IR people are doing pretty well for themselves. For all of the data that Alnylam has put out though, it has not necessarily helped to clarify the value picture all that much. In what has been a weak tape for biotech, Alnylam has been even weaker, falling about 25% since my last update versus a roughly 15% decline for the iShares NASDAQ Biotech Index (NASDAQ:IBB). Rival and peer Ionis (NASDAQ:IONS), which uses a different biological approach, is down about 50% over that stretch.

I believe that Alnylam remains significantly undervalued, but there is a huge range in potential outcomes here, with only one late-stage clinical program that I'd argue has shown clean and strong efficacy. While the good news for the bulls is that that leaves a lot of potential upside as trials read out, the bad news is that the value could quickly evaporate if and/or when those trials disappoint. My fair value of $108 today is based on a $54 value per share for patisiran, about $35 for revusiran, almost $10.50 for fitusiran, and the remainder from other pipeline programs.

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More Data From Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, But Not Much More Clarity