Celldex Could Really Use Some Strong Data

Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX) is still back on its heels after the deeply disappointing announcement earlier this year that the company's lead compound failed an interim futility analysis. While the company does have a deep pipeline of other immuno-oncology and oncology antibody-drug conjugate (or ADCs) candidates, the reality is that much of this pipeline is early-stage and the field is both brutally competitive and witheringly difficult.

Given the data that have come out on the company's pipeline candidates since my last update, as well as data from potentially competitive therapies, I'm not as bullish as I was before. I still think that Celldex is undervalued, but I'm more concerned about how glembatumumab (or "glemba") will perform in the real-world market, and I'm concerned that key pipeline IO drugs like varlilumab and CDX-1401/CDX-301 may not be effective enough to become major contributors.

Sifting through early-stage data demands a lot of "could's," "seems," and "may be's," so I don't exclude the possibility that additional studies will show greater benefit. Likewise, I think it's fair to say that Celldex is deep in Wall Street's doghouse and probably has a higher burden of proof now. All that said, while I do think Celldex should sport a double-digit fair value, I feel like the arrow is pointing the wrong way in terms of recent clinical trial releases.

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Celldex Could Really Use Some Strong Data